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It's definitely not EVA, but will be extremely surprised if they say NHS should adopt across whole organization straightaway, as it's such a new test. I expect they'll still say they need a lot more extensive data gathering and will launch another review after that.

The new CEO still hasn't bought ANY shares at all after months into the job. That tells you most of what you need to know for now.

RF don't have shed load to sell because they must have already sold all of them, or the vast majority by now. But if there's another £600k drawdown in early Feb, the whole RF selling cycle thing starts again.

But on Quora they say it means: "any month between January and April"

"If no RNS today or tomorrow....imho that's it for January, and we,re in big trouble"

Possibly System. I thought "early next year" on funding to kick off FDA and USA strategy meant early January, but it could mean first half of February, who knows. For me, will be good opportunity to invest, if they secure stable funding.

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think RF organise a pump. I think though they do take advantage of any volume here by dumping straight into it. They are not a significant holder as they have consistently dumped at regular intervals, so they not obliged to report and issue a TR1 when they sell.

Short-term it's all about getting funding to get FDA as far as I can see. If they don't get necessary funding they will obviously still try to string out current finance arrangement as much as possible. This latter will become very difficult though if share trading volume drops to very low levels seen late last summer.

Professor,

A bit of "bureaucracy" is understandable. It would mean £7m a year in annual revenue for GDR, so quite a big deal, rolling out to all NHS trusts in England. (Not £8.5m as this would be just for England, not UK). Wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, GDR have their sights set on USA. Presumably, they are making some presentations to IIs in the City to raise funding for that???

When a consultation opens for specialist commissioning for NHS England the details will appear here. Typical time for the public consultation phase of this appears to be 3 months. But then there's other stages after that as well before final approval can be reached:

https://www.engage.england.nhs.uk/consultation_finder/?_collection=eyJzb3J0X29uIjogImljb25zdWx0YWJsZV9lbmRkYXRlIiwgInNvcnRfb3JkZXIiOiAiYXNjZW5kaW5nIiwgInN0IjogIm9wZW4iLCAiY29sbGVjdGlvbl90aXRsZSI6ICJPcGVuIENvbnN1bHRhdGlvbnMifQ%3D%3D%3Ae9f8d63e4a91f7ef67ac901f57444778a8e8e76123adb992c4beddf221280e07#cs-finder-results-container

Roger,

Just by the fact we don't even know when the public consultation starts. (assuming it does get to that stage). Then there's other stages after that as well to cross.

Https://www.hfma.org.uk/publications/how-it-works-specialised-commissioning-england

Found this guide to specialist commissioning. It would apply to whole of England if adopted in this way. But there is a public consultation phase as well, which presumably means it's in the early stages at the moment with this particular route. So unlikely to be done and dusted this year the way I read that flow chart on page 8:

https://www.hfma.org.uk/system/files/how-it-works---specialised-commissioning.pdf

RF sells at every available opportunity, there's no doubt of that

Difference is new CEO has better chance of getting the previous institutional investors back on board again

Slacker,

To me, RF are very systematic. They sell their wares whatever the price, as long as there's enough volume to sell. If they get a low price, it just means they have to ask GDR for more shares. They get their money in the end, as long as there's volume. That's why this is the main criteria for them agreeing further drawdowns at the moment. Volume.

Definitely is progress if all NICUs in KSS adopt, though still only represents 6% of UK total.

They have been adopted in Manchester but as I remember so far just three NICUS adopted in the Manchester rather than all 8 in the Manchester area.

But would say, fact KSS appears to adopting bodes very well for eventual full NICE recommendation, in which case all 208 NCIUs in UK would HAVE TO adopt.

In my view two good products. But awful financing solution currently in place. Long lead times getting big commercialisation though that could improve with new financing to get it into US market.

"The original revenue from the NHS was upgraded long ago from £5m to £8m"

Perhaps they basing it on 90,000x£85 then now (given price inflation) then. That would nearly bring it to £8m

And then also of course is the question of how long it will take to get to complete UK penetration.....

90,000 babies a year are admitted to NICUs in the UK. Original business plan assumed only those who would definitely take antibiotics would be tested, and I think that came up to £5.5m in revenue.

But if all 90,000 are tested that means UK potential revenue of about £7.2m (£80x90,000)

Of course, given cash burn of £400k per month and assuming 50% margin GDR still wouldn't break even with UK market alone. In best case scenario that's £3.6m in operating profit versus yearly cash burn of £4.8m. Further reinforces the point why company is currently focusing on trying to get FDA approval and get product into US.