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According to a Tweet issued by Trinity, Cenkos has recently reiterated its buy recommendation for Trinity with a target price of 40p. But for some reason, this is not showing on London South East's Broker Ratings.

Before going any further, I should point out that SPT, in my opinion, is detrimental to Trinidad's oil business. That said, the article below (Posted on the Trinity Exploration section) seems to indicate that Heritage is very much open for business. It appears to be looking for partnerships of various types so that it can develop the country's oil assets. The point that I am really making is this. Why should a company of the size of CERP with an ability to rapidly alter its production levels (And so its exposure to SPT) be so keen on foreign expansion? There appear to be substantial opportunities within its current acreage and also with the prospect of doing deals with Heritage.

In the Proactive interview, Leo Koot seems to indicate that expansion into another country is imminent. According to CERP's recent update, it made offers for "Interesting opportunities" in four other countries. If its production levels and cash flow were many times greater than is currently the case, I just might understand the logic. But operating in at least one other jurisdiction will be expensive. Unless the operations are generating cash almost immediately, this could be a very financially draining exercise.

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/heritage-has-been-operationally-profitable-6.2.824225.4c9a53103d

This article is definitely worth reading. The CEO of Heritage makes it very clear that it's open for business. Moreover, it seems to indicate that it's keen to move forward and develop its offshore assets. Basically, Heritage appears to be good news for the country's oil industry.

Of course, talk is cheap but it gives the impression that Heritage is an action-oriented organisation.

It goes without saying that any brokers' tips need to be treated with caution. However, I noticed that Numis has just come out with a buy recommendation for Highland Gold and has put in a target price of 250p. Purely out of curiosity, I plotted some (Not all) of its recommendations in relation to Highland Gold on to a Highland Gold share graph. The pattern is not linear but it has been broadly right. Numis has been broadly correct in terms of the share price trajectory from October 2014.

This short article from Bloomberg illustrates the dire straits that South Africa's Gold mining industry finds itself in. But the real point I am making is that Pan African is one of the few bright prospects in the sector. It has concluded long-term wage agreements with its workers and has restructured its business. It even has sizeable development opportunities within its current acreage. But I am unsure whether it's getting its message out - it may be silenced by the deluge of bad news.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/south-african-gold-output-has-longest-losing-streak-since-2009?srnd=markets-vp

My understanding is that scrapping the SPT would be politically difficult. However, without much fanfare, the Government might be able to tweak the system. A technical change in the way the tax is implemented would not be very newsworthy. However, for a company such as Trinity set to spend major amounts on capex, a change in the system could be immensely advantageous.

Does anyone have the log in details for this afternoon's conference call?

Simply elaborating on the role of China in the world's Gold market, this recent article from Bloomberg is worth closer consideration. Whether we like it or not, Gold as a store of value for Central Banks appears to be increasingly important.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-07/china-continues-gold-buying-spree-as-pboc-adds-for-fourth-month

Just how relevant this is I am unsure but it certainly is worth considering. Yesterday I attended the Master Investor Show in London. One of the companies exhibiting and presenting was a Canadian mining company called Auxico Resources (CSE: AUAG). It's a small-scale exploration company with assets in Mexico and Colombia. Its main focus appears to be Coltan in Colombia.

How successful it will be is anyone's guess. It will be operating in areas with high densities of indigenous peoples. A close observation of Amerisur Resources will reveal just how problematic this can be. However, that's another story. The company has a market cap of some C$7.63 million (£4.3 million). And appears to have had little trouble in recently raising around US$1 million in placings. Basically, it seems to be some way off from production and there is no JORC report in sight. But the company is priced only slightly less than Kazera: A company that is about to produce a JORC report and has been in production.

Incidentally, it presented some interesting figures. Firstly, its assumptions were based on a Tantalum price of US$186 per kilo. However, and very importantly, I asked whether this related to the grade of Tantalum that was being recovered. And I was told that the grade was some 30% purity and, yes, this was the expected price. Important bearing in mind that in 2018, Kazera made six shipments with grades in excess of 40% purity.

For those who may need a little refreshing. The company provided some figures that are just as relevant for Kazera. For starters, even though it's an incredibly widely used substance, the global market for Tantalum is only some 2,000 metric tonnes per annum. As for demand, US consumption increased by some 44% from 2016 to 2017. Globally, it expects the market to have a compounded annual growth rate of some 3.1% between 2018 and 2023. And as it points out, it's on the EU's 2017 critical raw material's list.

For sure, we don't know the full results of the JORC report. But thus far, the results that have been announced have been extremely positive. Will it find a financial/offtake partner? We don't know. But it has issued RNSs that state that it's in discussion with two international companies.

As I have said before, this is a high-risk proposition. But I am not convinced that the market has priced in the upside.

Interesting times indeed. Jim Mellon speaking on the main stage at yesterday's Master Investor Show in London gave Highland Gold Mining as his top tip. More broadly, he was bullish on Gold and Silver. And raised considerable doubts about the US technology darlings of recent years. But it will be interesting to see who is right.

As you point out, Highland Gold Mining is being shorted. However, as of 5th April 2019, the Jane Street Group no longer appears to be shorting the company. Nevertheless, Millenium International Management is still showing as a shorter with 1.07% of the stock.

The one caveat that I have in regard to shorting Gold mining stocks is this. No matter what research the shorter carries out. Aside from something really egregious such as a massive fraud, the shorter is exposed to volatility in the Gold market. The shorter may make a correct estimation in terms of geology or even management. But a spike in the price of Gold can negate everything. And the potential losses could be great.

Simply adding to the other very valid comments taken from the presentation. According to the management, there appears to be little likelihood that the SPT regime will change this year. However, over the next two years, they believe that change is probable. The key issue appears to be the lack of political will and time. The authorities seem focused on the gas industry. Unsurprising given the level of investment that the country is experiencing in the sector. So oil is on the back burner. Nevertheless, the company is lobbying hard and seems to be presenting a strong case. More investment in the oil industry is likely to have a multiplier effect on the local economy in a way that big-ticket investment in offshore gas does not. Incidentally, Bruce Dingwall has had considerable experience of lobbying for tax change most notably in Pakistan where he was at it for some two years before achieving his goal. But I don't think that investors should assume that such a regressive tax will be removed any time soon.

Before going any further, I should point out that this is not a company that I follow and I don't have any financial interest in the business. However, I am interested in Zimbabwe. Moreover, I attended the UK Investor Show on Saturday. While there, I spoke to representatives of the company. This is what I gleaned. Firstly, there appear to be no technical or geological reasons why it cannot go ahead with production in Zimbabwe. And the time frame that several posters have mentioned today of three months was mooted. It seems to be waiting on some form of permitting to be issued by the authorities in Zimbabwe in the next two weeks. There will almost certainly be a placing. And the point was made because I sought clarification on this that it will not be an open offer as it was considered to be too time-consuming. They also appeared confident of being able to borrow on the strength of the company's assets.

As most are probably aware, the company will be holding a presentation for private investors tomorrow evening. Should anyone have relevant questions they would like answered, please let me know as I will be there.

For reasons that I don't fully comprehend, many posters appear to blame the market in general or more precisely market makers for Amerisur's stock price performance. Some time back, it was Rex Harbour's selling that depressed the share price. More recently it's Autobots. But let's take a step back.

Compared to Q1 2018, production for the last quarter, that is Q1 2019, has fallen by around 31%. Adding back the lost production due to choking production from Indico-1 so as to facilitate the drilling of Calao-1X and the fall is around 20%. Amerisur is now producing some 4,600 BOPD. The backdrop is a year of disappointment in terms of drilling success. More broadly there has been a lack of drilling.

The market appears simply to be reflecting the company's fortunes. There has been a year-on-year decrease in oil production. At the same time, 1P reserves have increased. The share price is roughly where it was a year ago.

As for the prospect of a takeover. Firstly, I would suggest that a premium of maybe 40% on the current share price is realistic. But that's about it. And the real question is who will be in the market to buy? The company is now caught between a US giant and India's state oil company. Sure it could be dismembered. But that might be tricky. There are also serious issues surrounding the indigenous communities living close to its core producing assets as well as the OBA pipeline. Civil issues have the potential to stop production in these areas.

Whether CPO-5 lives up to its promise is anyone's guess. But it might be worth remembering the build-up to the N-Sands drilling in 2018. It may also be worth bearing in mind that ONGC has been sitting on this asset for many years. They are in the driving seat and will decide the pace of development. Does its managerial reward structure encourage entrepreneurial activity? How does it treat failure? There seems to be an assumption by some investors that ONGC and Amerisur are on the same wavelength. That may not be the case.

The Oxy deal, in my view, is a vote of confidence in the company's assets. But this has still to deliver. As with CPO-5 it, again, hands over the company's future to another more powerful entity that will have its own agenda.

Basically, the company appears to be fairly valued. The lack of total shareholder returns over the long-term has nothing to do with market machinations but everything to do with a lack of success at the drill bit. Its production and reserves are simply not increasing sufficiently to support a much higher price.

It's strange but when I read an Edison report I feel that it has almost been written by the company itself. And that's what I like. Having briefly scanned the work, I noticed that there is something that is very relevant for investors. That's with respect to dividends. It describes the payment of a dividend in 2020 as "Almost a racing certainty”. Interestingly it points out that any dividend paid for 2019 will not actually be paid until 2020. Therefore, it will not impact the company's year-end banking covenants. It suggests that if it does not pay a dividend in 2019 then it's possible that it may pay an interim dividend in 2020. In which case it should be underpinned by declining debt and positive cash flow. All this is caveated with that awful phrase “All other things being equal” but I think that most investors would accept this as a given.

The important bit seems to be that investors are looking to the stock in anticipation of the restatement of dividends and the company acknowledges this.

President has certainly laid its cards on the table. It reminds me of something that Richard Slape spoke about at the recent LSE Oil and Gas Presentation. He suggested that a key metric for assessing the prospective success of an oil company is whether it delivers on its promises. Thus far, taking the acquisition of the Chevron assets in 2017 as a baseline, the company has largely done so. At least as far as it can in areas that it controls. However, there is one exception and that is funding. At last year's investor presentation, it gave the distinct impression that it was fully-funded for 2019 at least. Putting that aside, it has delivered in terms of both increased production and reserves.

Today's RNS is a clear road map for investors. As such, I think it's reasonable that investors hold the management to account for achieving the targets set within the time frames given. Put crudely, if it delivers on its side of the bargain there is very little that investors have to complain about. Sure, if a well proves to be a duster. Then that's simply down to the dynamics of the business. It comes with an element of luck. However, there are numerous projects lined up. None are that financially onerous given the company's cash flow. But collectively they stand to take the company up to another level. Basically, it appears poised to advance on a number of fronts, especially in relation to its gas production.

Yes, the company has given a very clear and concise outline of its plans. It has set down what it wants to do and when it wants to do it. By the way, this is in stark contrast to most AIM-listed companies.

Interesting point with respect to quality. If it can deliver on the latter then this could be an investment with serious upside. And, of course, if it cannot then the downside is of equal but negative magnitude. But the quality of supply appears to be key. Quite tricky really when compared to, say, Copper or Gold. Should low-quality Tantalum find its way into an end product then the legal consequences could be very serious in terms of litigation should the product not operate at its optimum capacity. At the same time, if Tantalum of high quality but traceable to a conflict zone finds its way into an end product the legal consequences could also be very serious.

Basically, if it can supply high-quality Tantalum from a verifiable source then this could be a stock with a lot of mileage. As a slight aside, some time ago it was suggested that the company could even buy in the ore from other suppliers and, in effect, act as an essay office by confirming its provenance.

Just noticed that Amerisur has appointed Nathan Piper as Executive Vice President for Business Development and Communications. Maybe the company is going to be more forthcoming with private investors than it has been in the past.

Incidentally, having a “Go to” person for investors has to be welcomed. And it does indicate its aspirations in terms of growth.

A little perspective may be in order. If we look at the volume of stock in terms of money, the amounts involved in the recent sell-off are very small. As I write, the share price is down around 2.5% on a turnover that equates to about £17,000. Basically, the stock price can be moved for very small amounts of money.

And just because the company has made no very recent public announcements does not mean that it's not advancing. We may easily be in a period of news drift where private investors equate no news with no growth. That does not appear to be the case with President.

Although I was far from happy with the latest fundraise, I don't think that it's time to press the panic button.

At risk of repetition, the management behind KZG is the same team behind Amerisur Resources. For all their issues, especially when it comes to over-promising and under-delivering, Amerisur recently put together a major farm-out deal. That was a US$100 million arrangement with the US giant, Occidental. Basically, they can get things done.

Just how successful they will be with an off-take and financing deal with KZG is anyone's guess. But they have demonstrated an ability to pull off sizeable deals. And let's remember this is a producing asset with infrastructure in place.

The indications appear positive. Both in terms of the forthcoming JORC report as well as advanced negotiations with two interested parties. Having said all that, I would not put a penny into this stock that I could not afford to lose. As with almost all AIM resource stocks, private investors are at the bottom of the food chain for information. They will almost certainly be the last to know about material developments on the ground. And, frankly speaking, the AIM market is only very loosely regulated and policed. It's a risky proposition.