Member Info for Stiperstones

Hi donalb and all.

Re: 17th July comment previously, please accept my apologies. I must have had a senior moment what with all of the excitement of the TUI share price rollercoaster. Either that or one too many G&Ts! Hope it didn’t cause any distress.

Best wishes. :-)

I went back and looked at the week leading up to July 17th. What has happened to the share price over this last week has been a mirror-image of that July week (and I’ve fortunately managed to take advantage of both). I’m temporarily out of TUI again now as I’ve made good returns over the last few weeks dipping in and out.

The 18th of July however, was the start of a sharp decline. Not suggesting this may happen tomorrow but forewarned is forearmed. No advice offered, suggested or intended.

As I’ve recently mentioned what I do is not without risk and the trading costs are relatively high because of the currency exchange. My trading costs and currency fees were just shy of £300 each for buying and selling on around £75k (HL). If anyone here knows a cheaper or more efficient way to do this I’d be delighted to know.

GLA

Worth a read:

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/tui-trading-statement--can-the-travel-giant-reinvigorate-its-sha-240920

GLA

Hi Clank,

I’ve come to my own conclusion that there is no rhyme or reason around the TUI share price. I wondered if this week’s drop had anything to do with Monday’s news about Rolls Royce engines (link below) but I don’t think it has (other than market sentiment).

Like robertgleed, I’m dipping in and out and gradually making inroads back towards breakeven after the share dilution last year. I don’t always get it right but there is enough variation in the share price to make a decent percentage gain without being greedy. I’m impatient, and that’s why I’m trading like this at the moment but there are risks of course.

Kind regards.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/09/03/what-on-earths-going-on-with-the-rolls-royce-share-price-lately/

An interesting read from the HL website (published 22.08.2024) places TUI and easyJet in a favourable light:

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/can-the-airline-industry-take-off-again-3-share-ideas

Thanks donalb,

And therein lies a growing problem for the small investors like us - the potential of AI-created content which has ‘added creativity’ or ‘subtle nuances’. While I’m not in the least bit suggesting the article detailed and highlighted below is AI generated, it just shows how difficult it will be to identify human created content from ‘real analysts’. (Apologies to those who don’t like inverted commas, but you can see the emphasis I’m trying to place).

Hi WB,

Where did you find this if you don’t mind me asking?

I should have said ‘…far better performing companies (by SP)…’

:-)

Hi Stumpy,

There seems to be little rhyme or reason why the shares are depressed in my humble opinion. TUI aren’t over-exposed in terms of flight paths using Middle Eastern routes (unless someone else can enlighten me more on this). Nor are they severely impacted by troubles in Eastern Europe. Profits are up, debt is down. Customers that can afford holidays are and mostly always will continue to book (because they are economically able to do so) whether there is an economic downturn or not. So, like many on here, I’m astonished and disappointed in equal measures why our shares haven’t positively responded to Q3 results today. I’ve stayed loyal to TUI (my definition of loyal anyway), but I’ve missed so many opportunities to use those TUI invested funds in far better companies and make significant returns.

Best wishes to all.

Hi email,

HL charges on the £45k in the S&S ISA was £11.95 plus FX £200.

Hi all,

For information purposes only. Just a quick update on trading in a stocks and shares ISA on HL platform. I tried to buy 12,000 shares at 9:40am today and it wouldn’t let me. I got the ‘fix or kill’ message that I’d posted about previously. So, I tried 10,000 shares instead: same message. However it let me buy 9,800 immediately! Weird.

GLA on tomorrow’s results.

Hi SKR,

Sentiment and comment much appreciated. It serves none of us well to attack others as none of us knows each other’s position (financial, knowledge, understanding, social, etc.) let alone vulnerabilities.

GLA

I’m interested from an investor’s perspective what is a typical TUI customer and are they different geographically across TUI’s areas of operation? That might help me better decide whether those typical customers might be negatively affected in an economic downturn. Is there, for example, Customer A: those who turn left on the ‘plane into the expensive seats and who might not be materially affected by a downturn. They will always go on holiday because they have the means no matter what. Is there a Customer B: well above average earners, joint income, no children - similar to Customer A but having a keen eye for what they perceive as ‘better value’? And is there Customer C, those that have one holiday each year as their main family vacation, have a sizeable mortgage (by way of percentage over their overall income)? My thoughts here are, if I have this information to hand (and I know there are many more factors to take into account) I could then make a more meaningful decision on when to invest more or sell. Any thoughts? Kind regards.

And as if to demonstrate the unpredictability of travel share prices, as I posted the message below, TUI are up 0.46% and easyJet down 7%…

I post this solely for information purposes and so that as shareholders you are aware of the Facebook group TUI Customer Service and Holiday Complaints.

I understand that the IT outage last week was exceptional circumstances. However, expect a groundswell of bad press over the next few weeks showcasing the way TUI customers have been treated. I’ve read many of the posts and it’s shocking to say the least.

Don’t shoot the messenger please. Posting this is to forewarn of possible bad press and the potential impact that may (or may not) have on the share price.

GLA

Hi email,

I can’t recall the exact message I’m afraid (close family bereavement yesterday so not thinking straight) but it was part of an elongated message which incorporated the fix or kill option.

In terms of the costs, it is what it is. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather just pay the £11.95 previous trade charge before the transfer to Germany. However, like most of us here, I lost so much money on TUI. I do believe in the company and the opportunity to get back the loss from my initial hard-earned investment. I look for short-term patterns in TUI’s share price movement and have had notable success this year, making up a chunk of gains. It doesn’t always work (I’d be retired if it did). Very interested to hear of other platforms where the charges would be more reasonable but I can’t complain about the near £500 I’ve paid in charges to buy and sell in 3 weeks given I made just shy of £4K net profit on £50k. I’m acutely aware of the risk. Apologies to those that are unable or unwilling to trade like I chose to do (no offence meant to anyone or implied) but I’m not the type of investor that can sit back and wait. I’m impatient and also enjoy the ‘excitement’ of the short-term trading.

Best wishes all.

Hi all,

This might be useful for those with HL Stocks and Shares ISA in terms of fees and charges. I posted this 2nd July 2024:

I called HL to trade at 2.50pm today and bought £50k over the phone at around €6.48/£5.49 (which cost £50,258 including charges for the phone privilege). I couldn’t trade online via my ISA (in my original post I had mistakenly said my SIPP) and was left with the option to phone or use the ‘fill or kill option’ online. Interestingly, I was told that the online trade wouldn’t complete because there were insufficient shares in circulation.

Today 17 July 2024, I went to sell the 9,094 shares but could not make the trade online other than the ‘fill or kill’ option, which I did, (leaving HL to do the transaction when they could). The trade completed not too long afterwards at around €7.14/£6.03 yielding £54,625.40. By my crude maths the charges came in at £211.42 (9094 x 6.03 x 54,625.40). I’m presuming the currency exchange is the larger part of this. Personally, I’m happy with this given the 8.69% yield in this short period.

Hope this helps those with HL who are trading TUI shares or thinking of selling at some point in the future.

Thanks also to RobertGleed (he’ll understand why from his post 5th July 08:38hrs) and others on this chat who share useful insights and commentary.

GLA

Hi all,

Worth a read about ECB nerves around potential election results in France and impact on markets:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/can-france-count-an-ecb-rescue-if-vote-upsets-markets-2024-07-04/

GLA

Hi email,

£5.49 per share according to my transaction history.

Hi all,

I’m with HL and sold my TUI holdings in my SIPP around a month ago. I called HL to trade at 2.50pm today and bought £50k over the phone at around €6.48 (which cost £50,258 including charges for the phone privilege). I couldn’t trade online via my SIPP and was left with the option to phone or use the ‘fill or kill option’ online. Interestingly, I was told that the online trade wouldn’t complete because there were insufficient shares in circulation. In 40 years of trading this is the first time I’ve heard this reason. Hope this information helps.

GLA