RE: Low costs27 Jan 2026 10:23
Perspective on “Circle the Wagons” and Recent Price Action
I have a mid-long term view on Empire and I remain constructive on the company’s future, but I think it’s fair to reflect on how expectations were set last summer and how the market has responded since. Ahead of the maiden MRE, the share price ran hard and fast and SB’s “circle the wagons” comment at the time inevitably added to a sense that something market-moving was imminent. In hindsight, that phrasing may have contributed to short-term expectations getting ahead of themselves. It certainly raised my expectations (and I’ve been investing for over 40 years).
The MRE itself confirmed what many of us already believed: Pitfield is a very large, globally significant titanium resource. From a strategic standpoint (in my opinion anyway) it strengthened the long-term investment case. But the market reaction was telling: the SP ‘tanked’ shortly after and we’ve since seen a similar pattern where objectively positive RNSs are followed by weakness rather than strength in the SP.
As an experienced investor, I don’t see this as unusual. Anticipation tends to be priced in well before delivery, especially in early-stage resource stocks. When progress is steady but incremental, the market often uses news flow as liquidity rather than as a reason to re-rate. That said, I do think the “circle the wagons” narrative raised expectations unnecessarily in the short term. Empire remains a development story — drilling, metallurgy, pilot work, funding and timelines matter more than soundbites. The value, if it comes (and in my best estimates, it will), will be built over years, not on individual RNS days.
None of this changes my core view. Pitfield remains exceptional as far as I’m concerned, the Board appears laser-focused on execution, and the strategic relevance of titanium isn’t going away. But I think shareholders are now adjusting to a more realistic cadence of progress, which may explain the counterintuitive price action.
For me, this is about patience and perspective. The opportunity hasn’t disappeared, far from it, but the timeline was always longer than the market briefly convinced itself it was (including me).
Interested to hear how others see the last few RNSs versus price action and whether expectations have now been fully reset.