Member Info for stewart3250

Hard to believe selling at this price after yesterday, do people not hold more than a nano second, no wonder retail punters lose so much, I will try and add before close at this price

Could have a good run into the close. Level 2 looks strong although cannot see the depth for each MM, I added today for the first time in about 6 month so I will now wait and sell 30% pre drill and let the rest ride, should be a decent price pre drill.
Good luck

Morning all,

Not posted in a while but my view is that I hope Trafalgar etc have now finished selling, I am seriously now thinking about adding more, the merger is done and I can see a raft of updates on all fronts as we approach P1 and indeed movement with CERP assets, presumable why they bought them, Uruguay no idea at the moment, for the future.

Level 2 looks to me that it will Gap up, BEGO is on the offer at 2.10 then nothing until next MM at 2.30, but I cannot see the depth of BEGO, looks strongest in a while.

IMHO, DYOR

I see 3 x 1M trades just gone through at full offer, may push us up

Starchild,

I agree with your view and I like your reasoned posts, cheers.

Regarding the fall from 3p to 2p over the last week, why did BPC allow a deal like this to go through, its a death spiral, they should have advised them they needed to hold the shares for a decent period of time I would have said until P1, and why indemnify them if indeed that's correct, this way they are simply killing the share price and current shareholders are suffering.
I bought in here about 3 or 4 years ago with the chance of a significant multibag, now I think if they hit we may get 20p because I suspect more dilution, I initially was sceptical of CERP and sadly so far it looks like I was right, I will hold and if it drops further I might add a few more.
The RNS today was in my view poor, the main issue here is funding and nothing mentioned about that which is a concern, the thing I said FOOK about was the date 2025, Jesus half of the original shareholders will be R I P.
Anyway good luck were gonna need it.

Hi IK,
Superb post, says it all , day traders for peanuts just no patience. I see the RNS says the seller was Trafalgar, quick buck.

Would you mind if I posted this on the BPC Group on Facebook.

Cheers and look forward to meeting up, Cumbria here and very hot today, still eme doing better

Starchild
Well said, I like your positivity, each to their own but too many doom and gloom merchants on here, more than likely shorters and I hope they get burned. If they are not shorters then sell up and shut the hell up.

I bought in similar time to you and not happy with the dilution but only way to go if we want to proceed to drill, I do have some annoyance that we were in my view led to believe that P1 could be drilled without the current merger and that funding was all done however things change, whether its Covid19 or simply better funding than CLN which was a bit of a death spiral, anyway we will know soon and I have held, its 10% of my portfolio . we will see.

Morning all,
Not posted on here for a while as I am in eme and that is 90% of my portfolio, anyway I have enough shares in BPC for an opinion.
The share price does seem to be drifting down and that to me says most don't like the merger. So why is that, its probably because we have not been given sufficient information to make a decision, a couple of months ago we had one aim drill P1 and hit the oil, great 20 fold jump in share price or were finished. We now have a small investment in Uruguay and a merger with CERP.
The question is as a BPC holder what do they have to offer, from what I gleam some production and potentially is it Saffron a lot more but no cash to develop it, why could they not raise to develop it, that's the question and why do we need CERP, it does widen our brief as more than on e egg in the basket but until BPC tell us were in the dark.

Regarding BPC I thought we were fully funded for P1 through the capital raise and the Bahamas family plus option with the rig supplier, can someone post what the breakdown is of the funding because it seems to change all the time.

Finally I got my letter for the vote and they have resolutions to raise the capital I note number 4, obviously by having the authority to issue more shares which means dilution. I want to know why when they were ok for P1, if they merge with CERP their assets should match the increased shares issued, so in effect no dilution, does it ?

I intend to vote YES because if the merger fails I am unsure where we are and also if it fails it looks to me like BPC will go for a takeover anyway.

Something doesn't add up and its perhaps the lack of information and to me a 20 bagger from here to a 4 or 5 bagger by dilution with the issue of a huge number of shares.

IMHO.

Afternoon,
I haven't listened to the interview where half a billion pound company was mentioned, if that's correct I would like to see how that's valued.
My quick valuation on BPC alone is 777M barrels at say a NPV of $4 = $3.108 Billion / shares in issue 2.458 Billion, therefore on a successful drill a share price of $1.26 or 79p, what's the chance of success lets say 30% so 24p pre drill.
Lets assume we need to raise another 500m shares at say 3p, that gives us with a successful drill $1.06 or 66p or pre drill 20p.

I assume CERP value equates to shares increased or why do the deal, all a quick calculation, so feel free to chip in but in my view its a lot more than 500 M company.

DYOR, IMHO.

Looks good for BPC

Bahamas Petroleum/Columbus Energy Resources- A full cycle Caribbean Champion…
This was a deal that few would have thought of up until recently, BPC paying for each CERP share 0.803 in new BPC shares valuing CERP at 2.67p or £25.1m flies in the face of all those positive missives via RNS or video. BPC shareholders will own some 76% of the ‘merged’ business with CERP owning 24%, a thought that Columbus supporters would have only envisaged in their deepest, darkest nightmares.
For BPC the rationale is indisputable, they have been for many years a one geography, one structure, one well player and until the recent acquisition of a licence in Uruguay might have seen it all come and go with the spinning of just one drillbit. They must have thought that all their Christmases had come together when it dawned upon them that they could take CERP for a handful of new shares and add a number of strings to their bow.
From being a one trick pony BPC now has production and exploration, it has upscale-able low cost producing fields in Trinidad with what only this week was described as a discovery at Saffron that might transform its owners especially as it was potentially so large that the drilling company involved paid to carry CERP for the second well. In addition it has added a potentially very exciting onshore licence in Suriname another asset that Columbus chased for a long time.
Having said all that it does seem that despite huge cost-cutting and potential upside within the portfolio CERP has been really struggling to grow, most fund-raising avenues appeared closed to them and markets appeared closed. It would be interesting to see if this was the first approach that they had received, either way it looks like an interesting move by BPC and its team who have woken up this morning with a full cycle, debt free, significantly potentially accretive portfolio with production and exploration upside.
In this context it is worth noting that the team over at Gneiss Energy have been incredibly busy this week, not just advising Bahamas here but also earlier in the week where they advised on the Humber/Union Jack deal at Wressle, do they never sleep over there?
The confirmation that this is a takeover not a merger is best proved when looking at the management of the new company ‘Following implementation of the Merger, the existing Board and management team of BPC will remain unchanged’. Apart from Leo Koot the Columbus Chairman who becomes a Non-Exec director of BPC and the country MD, not a board position, everyone else goes, even the highly regarded CFO Gordon Stein doesnt make the cut.
The BPC management do have a great deal of experience in similar territories with a lot of producing experience from Arrow and Dart and elsewhere so they feel they have the opportunity to increase production and eliminate overheads. With the substantial driving force of Eytan Uliel, Chief Commercial Officer and very tough negotiator to back up Simon Potter

Cerbor,
You are correct but rather than work through the calculation I gauged that $4 per barrel was a fair profit going forward, clearly it would take many years to extract the oil and what will the price be in 20 years, I thought $4 seemed fair, but happy for your to have a go.

Cheers

Bully, Interesking,

My quick calculations were :-

770mmbbl @ NPV $4 gives an NPV of $3.08 Billion ,/ current shares in issue 2.458 Billion = $1.25 / 78p

Morning all,
I read the RNS yesterday and nearly sold all my shares in BPC but decided to have a think and look at CERP, still not convinced its a great deal for BPC but came to the conclusion there must be more details to come, perhaps a farm out with Stena, anyway I didn't sell any and will hold.
Interestking, are you able to expand on your calculation in respect of BPC, I had them at 6p to 8p pre drill and 30p plus with a successful drill and I thought the 30p plus was conservative.
Its the funding that concerns me, I thought we were ok bearing in mind what was said, now I am confused, but as I said, I think more to come, I mean why release yesterdays RNS midday, could have put it out 7am today, more to come I hope

What was that about BP, surprised I missed it, since the rig contract has been signed I have added quite a few and feel quietly confident.
Someone mentioned about the conversion and shares entering today, I personally did not think it would knock the share price because of the rig contract, also there should be no need for an RNS regarding the new shares admitted today as we have been advised previously be RNS as far as I can remember.

Not posted for a while due to oil price and Covid19 but as both seem to be improving thought I would as I still hold quite a few.
Firstly why can I not see the latest RNS on here about the drilling contract.
Secondly, nice to see us rise, all due to clarity and drilling contract signed, also those who think this is a 10p share pre drill are in my view naïve, it will be higher, if they strike oil with the structures they have this will be 60p plus easily and I hope at that point they sell to a major.
AIMO, DYOR.

The oil price as we all know is down for 2 reasons the Covid 19 which hopefully will ease as time goes by although it will be a long haul and the other is the Saudis flooding the market with oil because Russia would not agree a cut, not sure how this will pan out but unless the oil price goes to minimum $50 a barrel all oil companies will have major issues.

How can BPC drill for oil with a price at $20 there's no profit especially offshore, to that end I closed all my trades a week or so ago, I do hold some bought and paid for and will add if things change but unless we get huge cuts in production to cover demand which is reducing rapidly because of Covid 19 and Saudis trying to bankrupt nations including themselves and believe me America will not like it one bit its looking dire.

On the day of the last RNS I sold all my trading shares by 8.03am @ 3.23p just bought back and unless anything odd I will hold. I have not sold any of my core holding and wont until drill when I will top slice 20% and leave the rest for the result.

I am annoyed that SP stated that we have our rig in the Podcast and clearly it had not been signed so they did not have the rig, very poor and that made me wonder, anyway I decided to buy back not all I sold as I am cautious now.

Good luck and I hope we now get a farm in. that was my main reason for buying back.

Well I still maintain this as a buy but with EA approval and CLN imminent I am surprised at the price, now 4p on the bid, clearly some are concerned that something is not right, this virus is killing the markets, where is this coordinated response by central banks to smooth the markets.
I still think a farm out will happen, if not the CLN but the price of the CLN was it 2.5p lets hope they don't start flipping for a quick profit, should have locked them in for a period. I wonder if they will simply draw down more from the Bahamian investor

That's a big cut by Opec and needed, lets hope they stick to their quota.
I will be surprised if we do not get an RNS tomorrow.

On the CLN has there been much forward selling, difficult to tell but not in huge quantities although I may have missed it, I would have thought there would be with the CLN although they may just sell say 20% and let the rest run, probably sell some whilst drilling to reduce the risk.
Therefore my bet would be on a farm out although BPC on first drill would be the operator, I would be much more confident with a farm out, a big outfit would supply the finance for a percentage obviously but we could get perhaps 3 drills all paid and some cash for work to date, just my view
DYOR. IMHO.