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Acker - I'm in a glass half-empty mood, I'm afraid.
Proceed with caution - GR has been at the starting gate with a few assets and hasn't really got going. Has had to pull up in a couple of races too!
My own view is that production will start in Q2 (there's a lot that could still go wrong including getting a huge ball mill to site on time) but it won't be the SC7/8 that he is now allowing people to believe. Funding will not be as straightforward as people think and it will be very, very expensive.
And for those who are new here, GR has always said that Zulu could produce spod at very low cost and now we're hearing that the $800 that he's quoting is relatively high!??! Combine that with a falling spod price and he might find that he will be coming back to shareholders!
As for the EGM notice that he refers to in the interview - he only said that he hasn't issued one. He didn't say that he hadn't prepared one.
Once bitten, twice shy! Deja Vu and all that!!! AIMHO.
Proceed with caution!!
Lenders are supportive and AP expects an extension, if required, so it appears that VAST is safe. Take time to watch his interview - there's a lot of good stuff in there.
More good news to follow - BP production figures are expected anytime.
Yes, there was a ramp at the end - some folk seem to be getting carried away again!
I've not been commenting much at all but fwiw, after 7 years of GR's RNS's and interviews, I'd have to say that I'm still not convinced yet. The ball mill is later than expected and it feels like there is still a load to be done before spodumene is actually produced. I will be pleasantly surprised if the end of February is met and if the quality of the product will be as George has indicated.
Over the years, GR has had the habit of bringing something new into the mix to change the focus and this time is no different - apparently all the spod is going to be very high grade... not SC6, not SC7 but possibly SC8. Forget that not even SC6 has been produced to date and that it is all still delayed and that the plant isn't yet complete. He clearly needs the sp to be higher than it currently is - I questioned the other day why the RNS was issued and I'm now convinced that he's desperate to see it rise.
That leads to funding, it was a surprise that GR is actually going to deliver some sort of resource statement and I think he's been forced into this position because potential lenders are demanding one. Have to say that I'm not as bullish as others about whether GR can convince anyone to give him a loan... have to also say that I think he will already have approached Canmax for support... they would seem to be the most logical place to start. If he has approached them and they've said no then that isn't good at all.
Just not convinced yet!
I'd take these as opportunities to add as I did yesterday. I'm expecting/hoping for the sp to recover substantially - when it moves, it does move quickly!
My view is that there's lots of positive news to come any time - after AP's interview yesterday, I don't think that VAST is going to lose the support of its creditors or is going to do another placing anytime soon. The BP production numbers should show continued progress (expected any time in the next 10 days or so) and AP teased us with some other tasty looking projects yesterday in addition to the Gold arrangement.
The diamonds will be a bonus but all the other stuff is where the real value is.
AIMHO!
IQ/Muck - you can see why lenders would be supportive and why AP would be confident that there is no imminent financial disaster... in fact, it really does sound like this worm has turned (Two Ronnies reference... probably wasted in anyone under 55!).
Could be a fantastic turnaround story here! I would be very, very happy if we got back to last year's highs and would dare to dream, if it all falls into place, it could go much higher. Risk/Reward is looking even better this week.
Despite my negative views about GR, I never thought that we would be floundering at this price again but I'm still very nervous about whether Zulu will get over the line.
Good of him to give us the heads up that he needs more cash (no surprise there) and that we'll get a resource statement this quarter. It does appear that Zulu is not yet a bankable asset... wonder why he can't get a loan in the short term!!??!!
Really not sure about the timing of this RNS though - there is nothing concrete in it and all of it could have been released later - he's bound to have known that the sp would drop further!
I thought there were a lot of positives in that interview -
- reassurance that lenders are supportive and debt extension in the future is anticipated
- explanation of the debt update RNS
- reassurance that the co isn't going bust anytime soon
- reassurance from a number of sources that the diamonds do exist
- a number of other revenue-generating arrangements are in the pipeline
- doesn't sound like there will be any placing needed
And I assume that he couldn't talk a lot about BP production because the RNS hasn't been issued yet.
Yes, Ivans, after a confusing couple of days, we can now look forward to an update on BP production where we expect to see continued progress in the last quarter (hoping that AP will get this out asap). Would be helpful to understand what other income VAST is receiving from Taj projects.
Given what is stated in these RNS's, I'm also more confident that AP can re-finance without the need for the creditors to take any threatened action. Let's see what the production update says!
Oofy - tbh, I don't know about Mercuria's MO, etc but, come 1st March, they have the ability to take action and will chose whether to or not at that time. I'm sure that AP will make his case.
As for the ZimGov's response, they want and, I'd suggest need, to be a country where foreign companies can operate without the historic shenanigans (and worse). I believe that there will be some satisfactory outcome at some stage regarding the diamonds.
Sandy - very interesting!
I wonder if the issue is with the ZimGov or with the Bank. AP made it clear that the ZimGov were supporting his pursuit of the diamonds and apparently want VAST back into the country. The Bank governor was a Mugabe appointment and is being replaced in April when his 2nd term is up. As far as I'm aware, it is the bank who are not complying with the court order.
IQ157 - I think you could be right. Hopefully, we won't have to wait too long for the BP production report.
I won't read too much into why AP decided to have two RNS's in two days but I think it's quite positive looking now after yesterday's disappointing update.
The comment regarding the dilution is a very pleasant surprise. I'm assuming that AP now has enough income to make this work and that the BP production figures should be good. As I've mentioned before, I think AP's strategy will be to play for time regarding the debt and get those production figures up. I'm beginning to think the unthinkable here!
I agree Muck165 - he's got a massive mountain to climb but I don't think AP is the kind of guy to give up. As others have said, because of the nature of the collateral, it could take many months/years for VAST to be forced to act. AP will have some idea of how production is going and how it will continue to rise. Can he see a point in the not-too-distant future where production and copper prices are enough to support a re-financing deal coupled with another placing??
Feels like in the months up to now, AP has been able to give the creditors enough of an update on the diamonds for them to continue to support him. Either they've now decided that enough is enough or he's told them something that they don't like.
AP now needs to look for funding and he is not in a great position unless he can convince potential lenders that BP is delivering the goods. I think he'll take the Rishi approach and play for as much time as possible... in the meantime, he needs BP to start producing much better numbers.
I'd be very surprised if there is not another placing soon.
I think that all depends on production at BP and other income from the likes of Taj. Could be that he looks for approval for a placing for part of the funds needed and finance for the rest. If AP had any good news then I think we would have heard it before that RNS, I'm afraid.
Yes, asi, I don't think anything is going to happen imminently but I don't like it when different wording is used in an RNS compared to what's gone before. It signals that something has changed, in my mind, so I reckon that the creditors have run out of patience. Certainly doesn't seem to be an imminent sale of the diamonds expected so, perhaps, AP has negotiated time to get approval for some increased headroom or to get some other funding organised.
I had hoped for some better news but I guess we're back t waiting for the BP production update.
We're waiting for news on a number of fronts but the regular monthly update on the debt funding hasn't come yet. For months, it has come within the first few days of the month and, here we are, now into the 3rd week of the month. The last update on 4th December simply said that discussions to extend the debt from 30th Nov were happening. Either discussions are still happening - why? - or they've been concluded - why no update? - or something else major is happening. I'm leaning towards the latter - a long term extension or the diamonds have been/are being sold?
There were suggestions that something was leaked in between Christmas and New Year... maybe adding 1 and 1 and getting 3 but it does feel like something bigger than a debt extension is happening??