south africa17 Feb 2016 22:39
The South African economy is in terrible shape. Arguably, the most worrying data point was January’s Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 43.5 – the sixth consecutive reading below 50. The mining sector, which was struggling before commodities started falling, is clearly in structural decline. South African gold production has halved since 2005 as a result of rising costs and the depletion of reserves at aging mines. Unemployment is among the highest in the world, the power grid is decayed and vulnerable to extended outages, labor unions are very restless, and the country’s debt rating could be downgraded to junk in the near future. If all that weren’t bad enough South Africa’s President, Jacob Zuma, is one of the most corrupt leaders in the world.
He went through three finance ministers in two days last December, and investors reacted by fleeing the Rand en masse. Investors trying to play this theme are probably best served looking into precious metals, specifically platinum and palladium. South Africa is home to around 70% of the world’s platinum production and 40% of palladium. It is thought to contain 95% of the world’s PGM reserves. The local miners are in terrible shape, and starting to begin negotiations with hardline unions. Amplats recently reported an -86% decline in annual profits. Both metals have strong fundamentals, but have struggled with the slowdown in global demand – particularly from China. However, if South Africa becomes a failed state, the supply narrative will turn very bullish, very quickly.