Member Info for stevemocal

Visit Timor - Photos were posted by attendees of the workshop with ANP a couple of weeks ago. One showed that a rig, Valaris 247, is pencilled in for Sundagas in December 2024. Before that, it appears to have drill contracts scheduled with INPEX, ENI and EOG.

The SP is half what it should be because CB is in charge. It is time for him to go.

3card - There will be no more drilling at Bushranger. I think CB will spend some money to see if they can make a case for a small mine to target the better grade ore that is near surface. If so, he'll then wait for copper to hit $10k per tonne, declare a decision to mine, and trigger the AA buy-back clause. We can then hopefully offload it and get our money back.

In the meantime, the shares sit in the bottom draw and I can only hope CB doesn't run the company into the ground chasing copper rainbows before we have a chance to sell Bushranger. He should really do the decent thing and step down.

See you all in a couple of years!

Jelly- There is no doubt the gas is there (maybe a lot more than the current resource estimate) and the geological signs are very positive that it will flow well. There are still some risks/complications that could arise (e.g. CO2 levels) but the asset looks pretty rock solid. The big issue remains... what is the route to market? Without one, the asset is worthless and that is reflected in the current SP.

Here's hoping that as part of the farm-up agreement (a very generous deal for TL IMHO) AB has secured some sort of announcement from TL to address the route to market concerns (which would make it a great deal for BOIL). That will be the game changer. Who knows... maybe such an announcement is just a few days away and will be delivered as part of the visit to the UK where BOIL are hosting a contract signing event with the TL President, UK senior politicians and business leaders/investors. Politicians love a little fanfare to celebrate their achievements.

MrFlipFlop - What amount of money do you think BOIL need to raise and what for?

There will be a major re-rate with any TL announcement that confirms there is a route to market for the gas. Be that piping gas from GS to Darwin or TL, agreeing to any other pipeline from any other gas field, or issuing a statement supporting the use of an FLNG facility at any gas field.

I am hoping that such an announcement will come as part of the farm-up deal we are waiting to be signed.

Filthy - Yes, it would have to come from the petroleum fund and that (I think) would require the approval of parliament. It could be that funding was proposed/requested as part of the State Budget that has just gone through but, as I said, I would have expected that to generate some noise - there are plenty of voices in TL that are concerned at the level of investment in oil and gas and want to see investment going elsewhere to de-risk by creating a more diverse economy.

The funding dispute with Timor Resources is also interesting. The Timor Resources CEO said in a recent interview that the issue was 'nearly' resolved. Does that mean Timor Gap has agreed to stump up some cash but hasn't paid yet? Where would that money come from? Again, if it is to come from the petroleum fund, I'm not aware of any parliamentary debate in TL to discuss/approve that. Could it be that Timor Gap is expecting a cash windfall shortly that will allow it to meet its payment obligations to both BOIL and Timor Resources without having to go cap in hand to the government for another drawdown from the petroleum fund?!?

I may be overthinking it and making connections where there aren't any. I guess we'll find out soon enough!

Filthy - Something else to consider... where is Timor Gap going to get the $8.5m from?

Their income is almost entirely made up of the government grant/subsidy it receives, which is usually around $15m per annum. Surely such a large increase in funding would require parliamentary debate and a review of the sort of report that Mr Tilman refers to? The MoU expires on 31st January... how can they sign a farm-up agreement if they don't have the wonga?

I suppose the money could be wrapped up somewhere within the State Budget that is waiting for promulgation but I would have expected more transparency and scrutiny before the island invested more in oil and gas. TL put a lot of eggs in the oil and gas basket when they decided to buy out Shell and ConocoPhillips at Greater Sunrise and I would have expected a further investment into the sector, even a relatively small one, to have generated some noise.

That said, there is a risk that I'm making the evidence fit to support my preferred conclusion, instead of just following the evidence!

I hate that you can't edit... embarrassing when you send a message whilst editing!

Aghh... you'll get the drift of my thinking.

The paying interest in the PSC is 75%. If TL has 15% and BOIL 60%, then that is a 80-20 split if that was to be sold on. That seems like a nice kickback to the TL government for approving a route to monetisation and securing a deal. I think we are looking at a full sale rather than a JV offer. Just my thoughts though!!

Filthy - So the former commercial director at APNM is effectively saying that he would have expected a resources and reserves report to have been published to justify the investment and the risk. That makes perfect sense to me, which begs the question... in what circumstance would that not be necessary?

The only circumstance that I can think of would be if they knew they were not going to have to make the investment or take on the risk e.g. they are going to immediately sell on their (15%) paying interest in the PSC and therefore the risk with it.

Is there a 'funding partner' sitting in the background wanting to take on the full 75% (paying) interest in the PSC? This would be a big risk with the flow test still outstanding and no clear route to monetisation once. But if the later risk was removed, by the TL government approving a route to market (e.g. a FLNG solution) then the risk to rewaThe route to monetisation issue can be resolved by the TL But what if TL were to remove the later risk as part of a deal? I reckon they'd be willing to do that for, let's say, a 20% slice of the action.

The deal is surely a done deal?

On the face of it , it doesn't look like we got much for the 15% and I hope there is more to the deal than meets the eye e.g. a nod for a FLNG so we can secure a JV or buyout.

Filthy - Yes, you would expect a fair bit of political fanfare but there has been nothing.

TBH, the more I think about the deal, the harder I find it to see a clear strategy. I guess we will just have to trust that they know what they are doing and hope more news is imminent so we can understand the play.

A sale of the asset is the only objective... BOIL will never produce.

It is just a matter of adding value now. That value goes up massively upon completion of a flow test and (hopefully) confirmation of additional gas (they are targeting what looks like a much bigger column of gas).

JV funding partner news next, please.

This has been a long time coming but provides a clear indication that the political issues preventing the majors from returning have been overcome. Another duck lines up.

Chuditch also gets a mention alongside GS, which is unusual but most welcome.

Fossil fuel days have always been numbered... it's a finite resource. The usual virtue-signalling hot air before heading off to their private jets.

CDF1 - The only real additional expense they are incurring at the moment is the cost of bringing on board the drill team, which isn't going to be that much. They are seeking expressions of interest from companies to provide drill and supply services but there will be no committing to any contracts until funding is secured... and I do not believe for a minute that will be done via a placing.

Maybe the coffers will need a top-up if this drags out for another 6+ months but I think the BoD will try and avoid it... they're shareholders too.

CDF1 - Why do you think a placing is needed?

MrFlipFlop - It is frustrating that funding hasn't been announced but there has been significant progress. The 3D survey was completed, a CPR report was issued with an updated resource estimate, a drill plan and location have been released, they are recruiting to drill team positions, actively looking to source a rig, and TL has also said on record that they are expecting a Chuditch drill in 2024.

Firm progress is being made and the frustration is almost entirely down to the 'pregnant with news' comment that raised expectations that a JV or sale would be announced before 18th December. We will simply wait a bit longer.

A funding announcement needs to be fairly soon or they will not be able to secure a firm commitment for a rig and personnel, which will be needed to hit the 2024 target date.

Perhaps they could also persuade the TL government to talk a bit more about their hopes and support for Chuditch, instead of it always being about GS.

A surprise sale of Dunrobin could also provide the funds... what a twist that would be!