Member Info for stevemocal

It wasn't really a 'green light' announcement as that's been given multiple times over the last year... it was a notification that the study has been pushed back until June next year.

It seems crazy that they would build in a delay like this with the Petroleum Fund running on fumes. Perhaps they have reached the conclusion that Plan A (Greater Sunrise) cannot be delivered in time to save them from economic ruin and they have decided to prioritise Plan B. Is there any other Plan B other than fast-tracking Chuditch?

It is hard to see how GS can now reach production before the Petroleum Fund is depleted. Chuditch must surely be being fast-tracked for development via an FLNG facility?!?

If we are extended again, then that would seem like confirmation that a Chuditch decision is indeed linked to a GS decision. But our board have said it isn't... so hopefully we'll get some positive news shortly. Back in the bottom draw if not.

Every time CB does a podcast, the SP takes a hit. Can we please just have radio silence until there is some real news to talk about?!?

He effectively kicked a sale of BR down the road by talking in general about mines with less than 2mt of contained Cu being bought up by the majors in 2024/25 when copper is higher and the majors start looking at anything above 0.5mt contained Cu.

CB also ramping copper by propagating the climate crisis narrative. He'll be buying an orange vest and sitting in roads next.

Bottom draw.

Tiburn - For me, the key paragraph in the latest RNS was this...

"Our ongoing discussions with potential funding partners provide additional affirmation that the technical case is robust and there is alignment on the requirement for drilling an appraisal well on Chuditch, followed by additional exploration activities to delineate the total on block gas resources for this LNG scale project."

That paragraph says to me that the job of selling the project/plan to potential JV partners is done and now it is a case of working out the detailed drill programme plan and costings it, before any formal offers can be made. I do not believe BOIL would have approached potential contractors until they had potential investors onboard with their plans.

The one remaining barrier is, of course, the political impasse and over the last week we have seen multiple announcements that suggest the impasse is about to be breeched - which is perhaps why the potential JV Partners are now happy to 'affirm' BOIL's analysis and plans and we now have some good forward momentum.

I personally believe a JV is fast approaching and will be topping up as and when I can. As such, I am probably one of the few investors that appears to be happy that BOIL are not better at PR and for the SP to linger down here for a bit longer.!

Tiburn - The message seems pretty clear i.e. the potential partners in the data room concur with BOIL re the findings, scale of the opportunity, the business case for the appraisal drill and location for the appraisal well. Next steps, find someone to do the drilling, confirm timescales and costs and then decide which partner to go with.

Multiple interested partners puts BOIL in a strong position. In fact, you could probably negotiate a great deal without even needing to leave your bedroom or get dressed. If it was down to me, I'd negotiate in my dressing gown as a power play.

When reviewing investment decisions, it never hurts to read again useful insight and information. It never helps reading personal criticism of someone proving useful insight and information.

Passiton is a font of knowledge and if other investors have heard it before, then they can choose to ignore his posts... simples. I for one appreciate him taking the time to share.

Hi Howezap - Let's agree to disagree on this one.

For what it is worth, I still think Bushranger will come good... so I'm definitely not following the herd!

Howezap - I don't think it is unreasonable to link large pay rises to delivering shareholder value.

TBH, instead of increasing shareholder value, CB has actually lost us value each time he has opened his gob over the last 12-18 months because what comes out smells like BS. And it smells like BS because he is spread too thinly across his companies, doesn't have a comm's strategy, wings every interview, makes errors, and sets expectations that he then fails to deliver against. Recession didn't do that... CB did.

A bit harsh to accuse LTH's of being herd followers because we want a return on investment before the board start rewarding themselves.

Hi Benhowell - I had to work today and can't make the AGM. Probably just as well... I'm not in a good mood!

The salary increase is a kick in the teeth given the fall in the SP and us all knowing how thinly he spreads himself across his multiple companies. Pro rata, CB must be on the equivalent of well over half a million... which is outrageous for a company delivering no shareholder value.

CB needs to provide some sort of plan with timelines re Bushranger as it is now a year since phase 2 drilling completed. When will we get the updated economic study and what are the options thereafter e.g. trigger AA buy-back clause, more drilling, PEA, PFS, mothballing, or what?!? Timelines?!?? Seriously... the silence is deafening.

At the very least CB should be providing some next steps and rough timelines regarding Bushranger.

Can't believe Ma has doxed me!

"Lord knows what goes on in the Baker household in the wee small hours."

I think Ma may be in a different time zone. Maybe even on a different plant. Possibly a different space-time continuum. Who cares... we all love a bit of diversity and inclusion nowadays!

No interview by CB yesterday. Does that mean we might get one more RNS before the AGM? I really hope he has something up his sleeve.

I'm just hoping CB doesn't do an interview as the SP usually takes a bit of a kick-in when he does.

Anyone got any thoughts on how long it might take Optimal Mining to update the economic model for the Bushranger Project?

NG - I'm just looking at train tickets. £92 return from Sheffield... Maybe. You going? Fancy a pint?

Hi howezap - CB has not been consistent with his messaging re the buy back clause and we are all confused and have had many a debate on the matter as a result!

Yes, as Lucky has suggested, pressing CB at the AGM for some next steps (even if they can't give timelines) would he appreciated.

What financer would even look at the project with the AA buy back clause still in play? It is like putting out an invitation to tender, whilst disclosing that bids will only be considered after a preferred supplier has given first refusal. Errr... do one!

I am not an expert in any of this but I cannot imagine a team of professional miners/explorers, and their legal advisors, signing up to a clause that couldn't be trigger as soon as the first of the engineering studies (the PEA) is complete and the project is ready to move towards a PFS and more detailed mine planning. But what do I know.

A decision to mine.

Jed - I think your interpretation is a little disingenuous. You cherry picked one sentence from this paragraph:

"Baron continues efforts to attract funding partners and investors to jointly participate in a Chuditch appraisal well and other future activities. The project attracts interest, particularly with players with a close understanding of the Asia Pacific gas markets, as a candidate shallow-water gas development of scale. We look forward to providing more information around funding plans and potential partners when we are able to do so."

It literally says that it is attracting interest! Obviously, they will continue to try and create as much additional interest as they can (even if there are potential buyers already in the data room) because that is how to get the best price.

I also thought the statement about on island support, in terms of how quickly they approved the licence extension, was very positive.

We all know a sale is highly unlikely until the politics are sorted and some sort of announcement made. But to say nobody is interested - Shell owned it for 20 years and were desperate to move forward and only left because of the politics - is clearly untrue.

This investment, as it has been for many years, isn't a punt on the asset but a punt on the politics changing and handing us the Holy Grail... a pathway to monetisation.

Apparently a ben and a der put together makes a word we need protection from. Diversity, Equality and Inclusion policies making the world a safer place for all. God help us.