Member Info for Steve4077

>> could anyone give me a realistic, neutral indication of an sp, especially if AA were to buy?

Here is an estimate of that by a well known mining expert. He estimates 40p for 80% of the company (so 50p overall valuation).

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/johns-mining-journal-where-next-for-xtract-resources/

>> Indeed, just dumped my 1M shares for a very modest profit

Considering volume is less than 3m so far and the share price is up at this point, I must admit to scepticism on the 1m sell in the first 20m of trading, but lets assume you did. That means someone is eagerly mopping up your sell.

Consider a few factors:
1) Any serious problem at this point would have triggered an RNS as it would be a material change.
2) Board approvals were targeted for March and March isn't even over yet.
3) The available evidence is currently positive, including share options, recent Q&A and other presentations.
4) The share price has held up in recent weeks when most other mining companies are down significantly

Even if finance is completed in March, it is unlikely that the RNS will appears until after the end of the month. Any such RNS would need sign off from all companies in the consortium so it may be a few days. Like Robjm66, I would prefer this RNS to be after Easter - maybe even April 6th or later. When we have waited this long for good news, why on Earth would you waste it by posting it just before the Easter Holidays?

It's your money, but I think it is a brave move to sell (and announce that sell) when we are on the cusp of transformational news with no significant indication of a problem and no market reaction to the perceived lack of RNS today.

It still might turn out to be a genius move. Hopefully we will find out in the next week or so.

>> it is incumbent on the CEO (who apparently had numerous options) to put in some firm deadlines for events as a condition of partipation

Yes, I remember when I got my first mortgage, I told the finance company that I wasn't interested unless they sorted out the money and made sure all their internal processes were complete by the date I specified.

@SmellyBen If you really think it is all in Harry's hands and he isn't trustworthy, then why are you invested here?

>> Can anyone advise a rough programme for assays, modelling, etc leading to a buyout.

I suggest listening to the last couple of interviews from CB on Sharetalk.

>> Well you are obviously splitting hairs in some lame attempt to justify your remarks

He isn't. You plainly haven't watched the video. Harry stated that the members of the consortium and the KEFI board jointly decided that the target date for finance closure was March. The finance is being provided by companies with much larger market caps than KEFI, plus the Ethiopian government, and the total package is multiples of the current KEFI market cap.

Its a fantasy to think that Harry somehow has control over all the other (larger) companies in the consortium (and the government) and it is purely down to his personal abilities and influence as to whether everything happens on time. This is a large complex deal with a lot of involved parties and a lot of moving parts. All these companies together have agreed the timeframe and Harry is effectively carrying that message from the consortium.

He stated in the Q&A that he was 100% certain the deal would happen and he was confident it would happen in March. The caveats were some black swan event (which we haven't seen) or some minor delay because he couldn't guarantee that every piece of paper in another company would be signed on time, because that was simply beyond his control.

He also pointed out that all the key players were in Ethiopia in December during a global pandemic and an insurrection in Tigray and all the companies had spent a lot of time and money in the preparation of the deal. Harry stated that this effort from the members of the consortium was a far better indicator that the deal would happen than anything he could say in a Q&A.

Again, if you haven't watched the Q&A, go and watch it.

Another artificially low, small uncrossed trade :)

Must just be a coincidence that this has happened several days in a row.

I highly recommended watching the recent Q&A if you haven't already. Its difficult to envisage a serious investor who would not want to hear the information therein. if you are short of time, just listen to the first 15m, where you get all the questions asked on this board, including (paraphrasing) "What about all those past delays - why should we believe you now?"

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/600b03dbea090471deaf6564/6017be697577b81e8414b3ee

I've looked at WSBN and did have shares for a while. They have what looks like a great target (Red Setter) based on the magnetic survey but there is no sign of drilling yet. I've sold for now (fortunately before the recent drop) to use the money for better short term prospects. If I see a 'drilling planned' RNS for Red Setter, I may well go back in.

Apart from two holes at Mbasso and one at Yakasse, the drilling results were weak. Even those three headline holes were decent results rather than exceptional. When that is combined with the location in Africa (even though Ivory Coast is a good jurisdiction in Africa), then you end up with a lack of major interest in the RNS.

Personally I am here for the potential of the Lithium in Ghana so I am not put off by the RNS, but I don't see it attracting new investors.

Just speculating, but maybe March 31st, or Q1, is also the deadline for the (optional) local investors to join the consortium. In that case, even if all major investors already have board approvals, KEFI can't release an approvals RNS until they know the full composition of the consortium.

>> The Board MUST release such market sensitive info to the market once they have it

I guess that will work both ways. If they know board approvals for finance isn't going to happen on the previously announced schedule, they would have to issue an RNS on that basis. The absence of such an RNS suggests that, so far anyway, they still believe those approvals will happen in line with, or close to, the original schedule.

I had my 3rd final top-up at 5.49999 :)

As someone just pointed out on another forum, April 6th is a key date for PIs because the new allowance for ISAs is available. That might explain some of the downward pressure. PIs may be waiting a week or two to invest so they avoid capital gains tax.

However, even though that might affect a lot of PIs, I'm not sure what percentage of XTR shares would be potentially bought by PIs who are holding back 20K for that purpose. If that is potentially a meaningful amount, it would make sense for XTR to hold back any key RNS to that date where they have an option to do so; maybe TR-1s.

I am fortunate enough to live somewhere that doesn't have capital gains tax so I completely forgot about the relevance of the date.

Yes, of course. April 6th is a key date for PIs because the new allowance for ISAs is available. If that makes a difference to you, it makes sense to avoid capital gains tax by waiting a week.

I live somewhere without capital gains tax so I had forgot about that factor.

And after six low volume trades, four of which were buys, the ask suddenly drops from 5.64 to 5.5 :)

>> How would pointing out someone's nationality be ****** ?

It isn't - unless you tie that nationality to a certain type of behaviour. If you say Harry is Greek, that's fine. If you say the Greek never delivers on this promises then you are, by implication, assigning that characteristic to his nationality.

Given Fevertreeman's constant de-ramping, I assume he is insinuating that being Greek makes you less trustworthy. Based on the general tone of his posts, his casual racism doesn't surprise me.

In fact, I suspect that when Harry delivers the finance, Fevertreeman will start quoting Virgil. "Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes" (Beware Greeks bearing gifts) :)

I topped up a couple of times on the way down, despite telling myself I wouldn't :) Last one was at 5.89.

The assets for XTR are just too good for me to sell even if the price drops further. The short-term problem is that while the strong hands have done their research and understand the potential, most PIs do not do research and seem to lose faith or get bored relatively quickly, so the price can fall without recent positive sentiment. The MMs on AIM also seem to take advantage of those weaker hands by moving the price around on low volume. However, value usually tells in the medium to long-term as it becomes too obvious to ignore, or institutional investors start to get on board.

As the famous quote goes "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

>> Did this just open with an ask of 5.60 and bid of 5.70? Despite the value of the last buys AND sells?

Yes. I am going to repeat my post from just after close on Friday.

"The share price was between 5.90 and 6.06 all day and nine of the last ten trades were all buys around 5.97. The closing MM bid-ask was 5.9 to 6.0. Yet, somehow the uncrossed trade is 1600 shares at 5.80"

As you say, the price subsequently opened today at 5.6 to 5.7. When the price is moved in that way without any selling pressure, there really isn't any other explanation except manipulation.

I used to think that it would not be MMs moving the price down as why would they want to sell the shares so cheaply? However, the MMs only care about activity and the spread. The actual price is irrelevant from their perspective. Their profit depends on generating buys and sell and what better way to do that than by moving the price around.