Member Info for Steve4077

I was a professional poker player from 2004 to 2010 (which is an interesting life when you have a wife, 2 kids and a large mortgage). I made a consistent income in cash games because I was good at reading opponents. However, even in that case the cards add a random element so the best players win over the long term, not in every session.

I only wish I had the level of information on my opponents in poker that I do when investing in stocks. There is a still a random element in investing, but it plays a much smaller part than in poker. Of course, if you don't take advantage of all the material available to conduct research, then investing really is gambling.

Finance completion doesn't mean that KEFI receives a lump sum. It means the company can draw on the money as required. The March date is for board approval from the consortium members based on the terms agreed last year. Government registration of detailed financing documentation is set for April. As the government owns 20% of the mine, that part should be a formality, so the key is the board approvals.

Its definitely been walked down today. Looking at the individual trades on L2, there is not much selling pressure. In fact, there seem to be more buys than sells. Even the volume is average.

Good point about SOLG. I just looked up their resources as Black Rock is heavily invested. For Cascabel, their CuEq is 0.6% for indicated resources (of which 0.41% is copper) and 0.35% CuEq for inferred resources (of which 0.27% is Cu)

Cascabel is in a far worse location geographically and politically than the Lachlan Fold and the cost of setting up in the mine is in the billions. The PFS has been delayed more than once due to the complexity.

In that case, I suspect Black Rock are not going to invest in many porphyries as 1% is really at the top end of the possible porphyry grade potential. It also seems like an odd 'single KPI' approach for investment.

Even in that case, other factors are often more important then the grade. If you have a 1% porphyry 500m under a mountain in the Andes, it is probably less profitable then a 0.3% to 0.5% porphyry a hundred miles from Sydney, surrounded by existing infrastructure. Check out the existing mines in the Lachlan Fold to see what is considered economic grade for the area.

We must be getting close. All the de-rampers are coming out of the woodwork :)

Very odd, especially as looking at the trades there seems to be more buying than selling. Could be delayed trades maybe.

LOL @Jezzoo

Actually, I don't see much ramping on this board compared to others. Most of the 'ramps' seem to be around estimates of future share price, but they usually include the basis for that estimate.

I suspect that when classifying people as 'rampers', SB is including anyone who thinks that finance completion will happen in the next few weeks.

There are definitely risks with this share due to the location and politics. I have investments in Canada and Australia which are much safer, although I am also invested in West Africa. In this case, I'm invested with the assumption that I will take a financial hit if there is any significant delay to finance completion, but that the potential rewards are much higher if it does complete, especially as Hawiah grows. The risk-reward ratio for this stock is very attractive.

HAA: "Sorry for lying about the finance completion date. I should have realised there would be a global pandemic and a war and taken that into consideration when I estimated how long it would take."

>> I’ve looked at the latest financial statement, and it doesn’t look like there is plentiful amounts of cash? The statements are quite old, so perhaps things have changed in the past 6 months.

There was an placing of £5m to fund the current drilling programme less than 2 months ago. For an exploration-stage mining company, the best guide to the current financial situation is reading through all the RNS for the last year or so and reading any recent company presentations.

@Investor12

Completely agree. Some investors seem to fixate on grade, which is only one of a dozen or more different factors. Maybe a 'grade-only' view is comforting because it is simple to understand, even though it is often misleading.

However, investing in junior miners is complex. As well as grade you need to consider the logistical challenges of the location, the size and depth of resource and how that affects extraction, the local geology and potential for additional resources, infrastructure requirements for the mine including processing, transport requirements for the ore/metal, future demand for the resource produced, the company financial situation and estimated future placings and funding, the experience of directors and geologists, the political situation and any complexities around licensing, permits or legal challenges and finally an estimate of the current and future value of the company versus its market cap.

In fact, I invest solely in junior miners because it is a complex sector. If you are prepared to spend a lot of time on research, both for specific companies and the sector in general, then your advantage over someone investing on 'stock tips' or using a 'grade-based' approach is huge. Most personal investors lose money and lack of research is the #1 reason for that.

@FTF You stated you sold at a loss after XRF results, so you don't even own any shares.

The only reason for your de-ramps is to try to justify your decision to yourself, which is a little sad. Why not move on to a share that you think has potential and put that decision (good or bad) behind you.

When I decide to sell a share, I usually delete it from my watchlist and ignore it for a while, so I don't start second-guessing my decisions. I only revisit it if an RNS comes out. Try it - you will be a lot happier.

I ran it in Excel. I would have struggled with only a dog available :)

>> Right, so am I being stupid here? If the upper half of Hole 1 is mostly 0.4-0.5%, and the average is 0.3%, then the lower half must be very low - perhaps 0.1%?

No, you aren't being stupid :) Its lower but not as low as 0.1%. Lets run the math.

920M at 0.33%, which includes:
156m at 0.52%
186m at 0.4%

So that leaves 578m at 0.26%, which is still an economic grade. According to the scoping study, 0.2% is economic with copper at $7500 and 0.15% is economic with copper at $10K. Copper in reality is currently $9000 and heading upwards, so the whole 920m is economic, with the best grades close to the surface.

>> How do we interpret the fact that AA’s 71Mt JORC was at average grade c0.45%? Surely indicates that asssys from hole 2 and others lateral to Hole 1 will be at higher grades?

The AA JORC was based only on shallow drilling, which lines up with the hole 1 result.
From 110m (first mineralization) to 266m is a 156m intercept at 0.52%
From 366m to 552m is a 186m intercept at 0.4%

So the shallower part of hole 1 seems to be higher grade, which matches the AA drilling. It also means the mine is more economic because it starts at 0.52%, which will generate the necessary funding to extract the lower 0.3% at depth.

I think people are focusing too much on the 920m at 0.33% without also considering the very long shallow intercepts at higher grade.

>> It does not make any sense to have such a large holding and continually trash the management and the board that’s the main reason I believe Smellyben does have have the holding he says he does.

You said it doesn't make sense for SB to have a large holding and continually trash the company, so that is why you think he DOES have that holding. I am missing the logic there, unless there is a typo.

I am a little sceptical of anyone who has to assure me they are honest. Also, people are going to value your comments based on their content, not on how many shares you claim to own or how much money you claim to have made.

Every post you make is negative, so claiming to be trashing your own £200K investment due to your honest, altruistic desire to avoid anyone else investing in such a shady company, just doesn't ring true.

It seems more likely that you lost money on this stock at some point and therefore really don't want other people to make money on KEFI.

>> So, the “Market” seemingly unimpressed so far with this Assay news, or just a slow burner

Most of the 'market' doesn't understand porphyries and will just look at the grades, without considering length of intercept, infrastructure costs, extraction costs, jurisdiction, etc.

With past good news for Bushranger, the share price on the day of the RNS did very little, but then it went up in subsequent days as more knowledgeable investors bought in. For me, the assay results have taken away the risk element, making this a very comfortable hold for the mid-term. I keep saying I won't add more as I already have a sizeable holding, but at this price it is hard to resist :)

Interesting idea. Harry/Smelly trying to keep the price down so his mates can load up?

Makes a lot more sense than Smelly trying to trash his own £200k investment :)