Member Info for Steve4077

For the previous delays, I could see valid reasons such as COVID and the recent conflict in Tigray. In this case, there is no obvious external reason for another 3-month delay. This RNS provides no explanation except "various challenges of maintaining progress in today's COVID-hampered world", which was also true six months ago when the estimate for March completion was provided.

I'm also concerned by various references to work outstanding, such as "subject to further refinement as final procurement and financing costs are finalised". According to past interviews, everything was already finalised. Perhaps if some indication was provided as to the remaining issues to be finalised, I would feel more comfortable.

There is a total absence of any concern for shareholders or an acknowledgement of continued delays. While I still believe the company has great assets in both Ethiopia and Saudi, those assets are no use unless there is a mine and that mine requires finance. Also, three billion 'in the ground' is a complete red herring because the valuation of 'in the ground' assets with no mine is a tiny fraction of their eventual sale cost (perhaps 3%). It strikes me as deliberate misdirection from the current problems.

Concerns aside, this mine might still happen within a reasonable timeframe and I am sure the share price will jump considerably if it does. However, I viewed this stock as a risk-reward bet with a higher reward than risk and this RNS has tipped the balance the other way. I can see better short-term options elsewhere so I've exited this morning with a small loss.

I am not going to haunt the board like several bitter ex-holders or try to dissuade other potential investors. You need to do your own research and decide on the acceptable level of risk. I may even be back in a few months if the situation changes. In the meantime, I wish the best of luck to the investors who have decided to stay the course.

Volume update :)

With less than one hour until close, the volume is an amazingly small 1.2m. The lowest volume day in 2021 was yesterday and that was 3.7m. The highest volume day in 2021 was 138m.

Despite that minimal volume, the share price is down almost 6%. Even that apparent tree-shake is not shaking anything loose.

I see we are suffering a coordinated de-ramper attack from the usual suspects :)

On level 2 there is no indication of mass selling. Volume for the whole day is only 11m, plus I suspect that mass selling would have the share price down more than 2%.

Where are you seeing those sells? Volume for the whole day is only 10m at the moment.

>> Steve. Think you're a bit confused between your millions, billions and trillions! More like 0.77%, I think. ATB

267m was a typo - should have been 267b. US interest payments in 2019 for example were 600 billion. Everything else in my post is correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States

>> To me us inflation is likely to cause the fed to increase interest rates

The problem for the fed is the size of the US debt, which limits their ability to increase interest rates. Current debt is 26.7 trillion dollars while Federal income in 2019 was 3.46 trillion.

The above means that every 1% in interest rates costs 267m per annum to service the debt, which is 7.7% of income. So if interest rates reached 5% for example, then the US would be spending almost 40% of its income on debt interest.

That is completely unsustainable, so the Fed has to keep interest rates low. In fact, the best way to reduce the debt burden as a proportion of income is to allow a period of high inflation.

Volume after almost five hours is still only 830k shares traded, yet somehow we are down 4.4% :)

Hole 2 may be weaker than hole 1, but you cannot infer that from the timing. If they have the assays, they need to publish them. XTR cannot hold on to material information for tactical purposes. Here is the relevant quote from the AIM rules.

"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. "

In the two and a half hours since open we have had only 370k shares traded. Yesterday was the lowest volume since December 23rd (3.7m), but at this rate today might be lower. Everyone seems to be holding on to their shares and waiting for news.

>> Tulu Kapi mining licence was granted in 2015. Tulu Kapi into full production in 2023 (hopefully!) so that's 8 years after the licence was issued. So basically Hawiah is probably up to a decade away from production

I assume your 10 year estimate includes another global pandemic plus a war and three states of emergency in Saudi Arabia, plus Saudi suddenly experiencing Africa levels of political uncertainty and risk.

Some other HAA quotes from that Q&A session that I thought would be useful...

"We've formed the consortium, we've resolved all principal outstanding issues and we all agreed to close at the end of March"

"The syndicate of investors are all spending a lot of money on their lawyers and their due diligence, so the people putting up $300m believe it"

"The day-to-day share price may be the pre-occupation of many shareholders but it really isn't the preoccupation of large investors for the long-term"

"I know its frustrating I suppose if you are on the outside wanting it all to happen. The best part of a $300m funding package is being provided by parties in the project at a price point much higher than the market cap of the company. Their question is 'Why is the market cap so low?'".

>> basically said 100% financing would be wrapped up end of March

I listening to the Q&A again to find the quote. The question at 8m 30s is: "Given the numerous failings to deliver to previously announced timelines, how likely is it that funding will happen by March 31st"

The answer is about 3-4m long (and well worth listening to), but the key phrasing from HAA is

"What's the probability of the closing taking place in the next few months, I think 100%. Can I guarantee that not one document will be left unsigned completely in every respect by the 31st March, I can't guarantee that, not should I. But is everyone still pushing their lawyers and their advisors to close in March, then yes.."

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/600b03dbea090471deaf6564/6017be697577b81e8414b3ee

>> basically said 100% financing would be wrapped up end of March

No he didn't. Go back and listen again. He said 100% certain that finance would happen and he was confident that would happen in March, but he could not control the signing of every piece of paper.

That is what I was saying in my previous post. Finance is happening. Maybe it didn't happen in March (or maybe it did and a complex RNS is being prepared), but it will happen because there is too much riding on this to fail now.

I'm surprisingly without nerves at the moment. Maybe I am just delusional :) but everything I have seen in recent weeks, such as the due diligence completed in December, site visits by ministers, job adverts, building the power line and the really good Q&A in early March, all point toward eventual success. I've seen no indication it is all going off the rails. If there was any significant delay, we should have seen an RNS to that effect by now (based on the timing of previous delay RNS).

I'm just waiting for the seemingly inevitable completion, whether it happens tomorrow, in two weeks or in three months. Based on information currently available (and ignoring baseless speculation or blatant de-ramps) I see no reason at all to consider selling or reducing my holding.

Yes, agree that hole 2+3 is a good idea and would explain the apparent delay.

>> Could the overdue results we are all eagerly waiting for, be relative to the NT’s to buy since Friday and the potential huge order being filled?

Holding on to known assay results to allow someone to load up would be illegal, so I hope that is not the case.

I think a small tree-shake is underway. Ask is dropping gradually, despite mostly buys going through.

I meant Ask (but bid is coming up too)

You might be on to something. I can see that several MMs have raised the bid noticeably in the last hour or so, despite limited buys showing so far on L2.

Do you believe that the 'no trade to buy' status for the last hour means a buy order is being filled?