Member Info for Steve4077

>> Steve.......I bought today.......came up as a sell.....what’s going on???

My understanding is that if something is below the official mid-point of the bid-ask, it is classed as a sell. So the spread was officially 5.5 to 5.6, even though many buys were going through around 5.52 or 5.53. All those would end up as 'sells'. That is why the buy-sell volume is not reliable.

>> So many sells today surely they ALL cannot be taking a profit (can they)

Doubt it - probably selling because they are too impatient to wait for news. As I am sure you know, "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient".

>> Would not touch vast with a barge pole !

Thanks - I was looking for that type of definitive response from a knowledgeable poster. I have briefly looked at VAST in the past but always seemed a little suspect and I couldn't see an obvious benefit to being invested there vs multiple decent other options, especially here.

>> Well done anyone that took VAST, that's exploding now!

I have been watching VAST, but can't understand the 40% rise based on that fairly neutral RNS. I read the forum but it isn't exactly packed with reasoned debate :) Is there anyone on here who has spent time researching VAST who could give a yes/no on whether it is worth investing the time to research it properly?

I mean by end of 2022

Based on that (obviously high level) estimate, do you see a share price around 3.5 to 4p?

Recommendation from Motley Fool. I'm not a fan of the site, but any publicity is good :)
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/27/is-the-rambler-metals-and-mining-rmm-share-price-about-to-explode/

Part 2/2

Little Deer and Whalesback are both former producing mines that rate as advanced stage exploration projects. These properties are less than 100km away from the Ming Mine, which means there is potential for synergies between current and future operations. There has been limited exploration work over the past five years. Both deposits are open at depth and along strike, with the exploration potential forming the basis of their acquisition in 2015. The mines are connected by a 1000-metre drift on the 240 level, which provides an all-weather platform for exploration after pumping. Further planned exploration work includes the upgrading of Inferred resources to Indicated status and testing resource expansion potential down plunge and along strike.

The East Mine is adjacent to the Ming Mine and provides a valuable platform for deep exploration of both properties. The East Mine has historically mined 2,130,854 tonnes at a grade of 1.04% Cu and elevated Au mineralisation.

I've been reading through the annual report and I thought it would be worth sharing a few key passages below. There is also an auditors report that covers the main risks, although it recognises mitigation for most of them. The largest identified risk was funding for the required infrastructure work which was dependent on capital raise or commodity price increase. Fortunately, the company raised $10m in Feb and the commodity price is now 50% higher than the assumption in the business plan.

Here are some key passages from the report (Part 1/2)

There has been a significant level of catch-up work required for power and ventilation following the events of 2020. This work is primarily at the bottom of the mine, which was pumped and available from the end of February 2021.

Accelerated mine development is expected to commence by the end of April 2021. If the in-house effort is unable to achieve the rates of advance, consideration will be given to the use of contractors so that the production plan of achieving full mill utilisation by the end of 2021 is achieved.

In-fill drilling has been recommenced to improve the definition of mining blocks with the upsides of optimised design, geotechnical consideration and improved grade control. The beneficial effects of this are expected to come through in the third quarter of 2021.

The deposits at the Ming Mine improve in scale and grade with depth. The mine plan is specifically targeting ore zones in the lower parts of the mine to access larger tonnage and higher-grade stopes. This, in turn, requires a period of development at the bottom of the mine. This is a new approach to mining for Rambler. When established, this access to higher grades will also be associated with larger stope blocks, and hence the mining risk is reduced.

The 2021 drill programme will focus initially on resource definition within the planned mining areas, with the potential to also extend resources. Exploration down plunge to extend the exciting 2019 results will resume later in the year. The 2021 exploration programme is aimed at upgrading Inferred resources to Measured and Indicated and to follow-up on historic drill intercepts.

Through ongoing underground development, by the end of 2021 the operation will be extracting ore from four separate zones in two different mining horizons providing flexibility and reduced risk. Further, with the establishment of advanced development, stopes can be mined “bottom up” creating voids for low cost backfilling of development waste. This further enhances the mining efficiency.

>> People who sold that dip near the bottom must be kicking themselves.

A 3.25m sell trade at .5025 was the low point.

The PDF on the website that accompanies the RNS is 93 pages. It may take a while to fully absorb :)

>> Steve, never used Level 2, just have live price's via Shares, it seems the largest trades show up about an hour later. Do these larger trade's show up in actual time on Level 2 ?

There are still delayed trades, even on level 2. However, the vast majority appear live. I see my own trades go through within a second or two of making them.

The main advantage of Level 2 (for me anyway) is being able to see the momentum of trading in detail. When you can see each trade live, with exact price to several decimal places and trade size, and whether it was an automated trade, you start to get a feel for where the price is going. Even small changes in bid or ask can indicate a change of direction.

I can see if the price changes are volume driven, or just MMs playing games, plus I can see the official bid/ask for multiple market makers, plus any third parties, and how they are changing, which is often a lead indicator for future price changes. It doesn't give the true bid/ask because that can only be found through dummy trades, but it does allow a really good overview

If you are going to just buy and hold a few shares, then generally L2 isn't really necessary, although it could certainly avoid any panic sells during obvious tree-shakes because you can see what is really happening. You can also pick your moment to top up by seeing the momentum change during dips and avoid obvious spikes.

Overall, Level 2 just gives real confidence about understanding what is happening and reduces the chance of bad decisions. If I don't have access to it, I feel blind :)

I use Interactive Investor. I pay £20 per month flat fee for two free trades per month and £3.99 per trade thereafter. I've made slightly over 200 trades this year so it works out a lot cheaper than paying higher individual trade costs.

I pay a further £25 per month with Interactive Investor for Level 2 access via Quotestream Desktop
https://quotestream.com/

I've been very happy with them so far.

>> Yet we still trade a long way below the company's own NPV target of $200m

That NPV is for 2022 and excludes Duck Pond Mill ($298m with the mill) and is based on a copper price of $3 per pound.

When you consider the assumed extraction cost currently is $2.13, then the current copper price of $4.30 would increase profitability by 150% (margin of $0.87 vs $2.17), with a corresponding increase in NPV. When you also consider copper price is on a strong upward trajectory, it starts to look a little crazy :)

>> Full funded drill campaign with £2m raised at 10p.

I wish XTR could use the same drilling company as WSBN. XTR raised £10m in the last two placings to drill phases 1+2 for only about 25,000m total (minus a small proportion for Africa), while WSBN are apparently fully funded for 30,000m for only £2m.

In all seriousness, I do think WSBN is a good prospect and I was invested for short period. However, I am going to wait until the funding and permit situation is sorted before potentially buying back in.

@ST Thanks - that makes a lot more sense. I think it would be helpful if the company clarified that in future RNS.

I agree on the potential for WSBN, but why is the drilling program going to take four years??

"The Programme of Works filed with the Western Australian Government for up to 100 drill holes to depths of 300 metres over a 4 year period."

Not exactly a quick return, even if they eventually find something. The six month 20,000m program at XTR is looking fast in comparison.

>> that's about 100 days of drilling

Except that the RNS states "100 drill holes to depths of 300 metres for a total of up to 30,000 metre of drilling over a 48 month period."

Does anyone have any idea why it will take four years? That seems an extremely long time compared to other drilling programmes of similar size.

Yes, seems balanced. He correctly lays out what needs to happens in the next few months. He also points out that market value doesn't always equal 'fair' value until a bid comes along.

Fortunately, in our case I think the AA buy-out option includes a clause for a neutral 3rd party to determine the 'fair value', so it is much harder for AA to lowball a bid. Besides, given the increasing supply-demand imbalance for copper and the recent Goldman Sachs estimate of future copper price (60% higher), I don't think we need to get too concerned about waiting a few months to prove up the resources.

Official close price was 0.545p. Disappointing drop after the early rise, but overall steady progress.