Member Info for Steve4077

>> I just have a feeling that Colin is leaning this way

The RNS stated that: "An independent firm is being engaged to undertake technical and financial modelling for an initial open pit mine, examining several pit layout scenarios and economic parameters"

That doesn't mean we are planning to build a mine. CB has stated categorically in the past then he plans to prove it up and sell it. I strongly suspect that having the modelling available for a potential mine is for PR and negotiation reasons. He can demonstrate commercial grade and will be in a much better position to argue a sale price with that type of information available.

CB is 77. No way is he planning to start building a mine :)

I wasn't aware of the 'negotiation' exception to rule 11 until I checked the AIM rules, but it would answer a lot of questions.

1) Hole 2 was completed about 15 weeks ago, so even with lab delays that is a long time
2) Previous RNS suggested batches for assay results, not all at once, so we should have had something by now.
3) The IP survey RNS was on schedule and we had the Eureka update too, so it isn't a problem with CBs available time.
4) This is the first time there has been a substantive RNS without an interview within a few hours. Why is he keeping quiet on the back of very positive news?

There aren't many potential scenarios:

1) The assay results are very late and CB didn't think that was worth mentioning in the RNS (seems odd)
2) The assay results are available but CB is holding on to them for anything up to several weeks in defiance of AIM rules (also seems unlikely)
3) The assay results are available but CB is in some form of negotiation and has agreed to hold off releasing for now, using the exception rule.

3) is perhaps very optimistic from a shareholder perspective, but actually makes the most sense. To quote Sherlock Holmes: When you eliminate the impossible (unlikely in this case), whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth :)

>> I disagree - if that were the case a simple line in today's RNS would have stated that.

I agree that a line in the RNS would have helped if there is a delay. However, CB cannot hold on to the assay results. Rule 11 of the AIM market states that the company must release:

"Information that would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities includes but is not limited to information which is of a kind which a reasonable investor would be likely to use as part of the basis of his or her investment decisions"

However, there is an allowed reason not to release such information

"Unless disclosure is required under Article 17 of MAR, an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimize the risk of a leak."

In other words, a joint venture or something similar would allow you to hold the assay results for a while. The fact he didn't include a line about delays suggests that the above rule might be the reason, which is very interesting :)

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/aim-rules-for-companies-july-2016.pdf

And don't forget that while we are all speculating about the assays, the simplest explanation is that they haven't come back from the lab yet :)

Now we are talking about grade, the last bullet point in the RNS makes a lot of sense.

"An independent firm is being engaged to undertake technical and financial modelling for an initial open pit mine, examining several pit layout scenarios and economic parameters"

The last two words are key. "Economic Parameters" effectively means extraction costs vs grade. CB wants an independent third party to state what a 'commercial grade' would be for this mine. Sounds like a smart move from a PR perspective.

>> Did the sp really dip down to 5.15p at 13:23?

Yes, there was a 100k sell, but it was way outside the bid-ask which I think was 5.3 to 5.5. I tried a dummy sell at the time for the same amount and it was about 5.32, so no idea where the 5.15 trade came from.

"We have nine hundred metres of copper" is a much easier message for the average low-attention-span AIM investor, than the fascinating but complex story that is unfolding at Bushranger. People have to actually read and understand the available material to understand the potential, and that commitment to research isn't very common .

Even so, the long-term value of XTR is looking very good indeed, despite the current share price issues.

And just to confirm it, jokerzz is posting the same anti-CB rants on Bezant and Galileo too :)

jokerszz is plainly Pops1980, creating a new account after his ban. He is posting his usual anti-CB diatribe on GLR and XTR too

>> jokerzz

So a new poster who doesn't like CB, who is fixated on his age and his companies and doesn't understand the difference in share price and market cap.

Welcome back Pops1980 :)

I honestly don't know. Even if they had warrants, it would make sense to sell them higher if they could, unless there is some time limit involved.

It could just be that CFEP has a different view on the value of the shares that the other six MMs. There is a wide range of recent copper price predictions (down to $7k to $30k), so Cantor Fitzgerald (CFEP) might be using the bottom end of the range and selling accordingly.

Anyone else have any theories?

On Level 2, there are seven MMs for XTR. One has the ask at 5.4. Three are at 5.7 and three are at 5.8. Interesting that single MM (CFEP) is holding the price down. On the bid side, the spread is more linear.

>> Do you have L2? I don't see a 200k trade so I wondering how many are not showing up yet.

Replying to my own post. There are a lot of early buys showing up now. 282k at 8.20am, two of 186k on open, 200k at 8.15 and another 200k at 8.30am, etc. None of those were showing up when I made the post above.

Given the weight of buying to selling, I am surprised there isn't more of a move in the share price.

@theiceberg

I've read your blog. very informative. Do you think the geology explains the lack of assays, in that CB wanted to lay out the scale, geology and general potential of the deposit before presenting assays in the 0.2% to 0.3% range. Without the context provided by today's RNS, those grades would have seemed low, whereas they will be perfectly fine for a massive scale open pit.

@cyberiachas

Do you have L2? I don't see a 200k trade so I wondering how many are not showing up yet. I can see my 100k and another 100k at 8.06. Total visible volume so far is only 550k

I topped up 100k as well this morning. No problem buying on II. A little surprised at the person who sold 57K shares on open. That is the only sell trade today above 5k.

Amazed there wasn't immediate buying :)

Probable huge copper resource in open pit mine about a hundred miles from Sydney in a proven area near existing infrastructure with record copper prices. Just how good an investment do people want? :)

On thing that not might be immediately obvious is that the IP survey covers the entire width of the green lines, which are about 3000m long. If you look at the bottom one for example, you can see just how wide the deposit looks (about 2000m) compared to the tiny cross-section the current JORC (in red).

Also bear in mind that Colin Bird has over twelve million shares in XTR, so I am sure he is considering the share price as part of his current strategy.

Some CEOs definitely would :)

But I seriously doubt that CB is one of them.