Member Info for Steve4077

Final Score - down 5.8% on 1.3m volume (0.15% of shares held).

So going down on minimal volume again. However, interesting that of the seven MMs for XTR, two had the Ask at 3.7p at close and the other five were at 4p or higher. Bid was fairly solid too with one at 3.55p and three at 3.5p.

Also, after the very positive action of the last two days, a retrace was likely so I think the minimal volume is probably the real message rather than the price drop. Volume today was less than eight percent of the combined volume for the last two days, so those buying on Wed/Thu are not selling for 10-20% gains.

During the last two days we saw volume of 6.7m and 10.5m shares traded and the price went up 15.9% and 5.5% respectively.

Today, we have volume of 0.4m so far, with sells slightly outweighing buys, and we are down 5.6%. The MMs always seem happy to push the price down on minimal selling. Maybe this stock needs larger swings than normal to create liquidity.

Anyway - I shouldn't be watching day to day price, but can't help myself :)

The AA buyout clause involves an independent expert to determine the buyout value. On that basis we can make a few assumptions.

We know the current price of copper is $9450 per ton. That is probably going up considerably over time due to increasing demand and decreasing supply, so lets round to $10,000. Therefore, if we have 2mt tons of contained copper, the final sale value is twenty billion dollars. However, that is still in the ground so its worth a lot less than that, so we need multiply that value by an appropriate factor.

Previous discussions on the board have been in the range of 2-3%. Personally, I believe 3% (or a little higher) is a lot more likely because of a few factors that make this deposit more valuable than average; the deposit can be mined using open pit which greatly reduces extraction costs, it is in a very safe jurisdiction and it is close to existing infrastructure and major ports.

So $20b x 3% gets us to $600m as a buyout number. That is in US dollars so we need to convert to GBP, which is £440m at current exchange rates. For a share price, we need to divide that by number of shares. There are 845m at the moment but there are outstanding warrants and options, so I will pessimistically round up to 1b shares.

So £480m divided by 1b = 48p per share. You can be very pessimistic and assume only 2% value in the ground and $8000 for copper and you still get 25p per share. Oh, and that doesn't include any of the Africa assets and it assumes we don't have more than 2m tons.

And that is why you would have to pry the shares from my cold dead hands at the current share price :)

The Annual Expenditure Commitment for the licence is only $202,500 (and we are way past that) so it seems to be a formality. I don't think that is the reason for the decline, because the volume has been so small.

Also, if that was the reason, that means the price would shoot back up on the licence being granted and I don't think that is likely. We need more substantive news.

@stevemocal

Same here. I want to see XTR spend a few months investigating what we have before even thinking about any buyouts.

Another day of price falling with minimal volume. 0.35% of shares traded, with a drop of more than 10% at one stage.

Price drops are so overdone, that it seems to be pushed down deliberately. 530k buy goes through at 3.3p, followed by a 100k sell, then the ask and bid both drop. Feels like a month-long tree-shake before the news starts. Very frustrating to watch, but still not going anywhere :)

/rant

The share price at the moment doesn't really reflect the sentiment. I did some analysis recently that showed that less than 10% of the stock held at the start of the price slide had been sold. The price is drifting down on very small volume.

Today for example, the volume so far is 580k shares traded, or about 0.07% of total shares or 1 share traded for every 1460 shares held, yet the price is down 2.5%.

Generally, investors on AIM seem to be easily bored and not inclined to spend a lot of time on research, so prices also tend to reflect the most recent news, rather than the overall potential. This stock has a lot of news due over the next few months and is fully funded for a large drilling campaign in Australia, so the price will go back up once that gets underway.

Last CB interview was on June 22nd on v o x markets:
https://www.xxxxxx.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources-e8cfa1f

I'm not going anywhere :)

I filtered them all a while ago. I only knew SB was still posting because someone else mentioned it. This board is now mainly sensible or constructive post with scattered green boxes. I

The RNS made me go back and check on the other Africa projects. I know Bushranger is the main focus, but consider:

Kalengwa had a drill result in March of 69.0m @ 0.88% Cu and 2.59g/t Ag from 9.0m depth. That is a substantive result.

Eureka had 4.42% Cu over 27.0m (true width 18m), plus the comment 'The very high grades encountered in hole EX-022 require further investigation at depth to test a possible iron oxide copper gold (IOCG) source model"

Eureka was supposed to be a relatively small open pit, but that could suddenly change dramatically if follow-up drilling confirms the IOCG suspicion.

Yes, especially considering Q4 wasn't lighting any fires :)

"The Company currently expects that at current rates of activity, the alluvial mining contractors will conclude their operations during the second half of this year. The Company's current focus is to continue to progress the Manica hard rock operations."

So alluvial will be done in six months anyway and the Manica focus is on Guy Fawkes and Fairbride. Plus of course, we are waiting for updates on Kalengwa and Eureka.

Very, very minor 'sell on news' though. Share price change doesn't reflect volume. Since RNS, six sell trades with average of 100k each. Largest was 149k. Bid-Ask depth on L2 is actually more positive post-RNS.

Seems to be in line with expectations. A bad Q1 2021 for understandable reasons, but expected to improve from there. In any event, this is a relatively minor operation compared to everything else so this update is probably to get the RNS out of the way before the expected news flow over the next few weeks.

Since the update 30m ago there has been about 600k shares sold, which is less than 20% of total volume today and 0.07% of total shares.

Market says: 'Bleh'

Yes, still posting as expected. Smellyben obviously has no integrity and no sense of shame - who could have guessed :)

More odd trading activity today. The bottom of the Ask was held by Peel Hunt, which was the only market maker on 3.5p. Buying has been steady all day, so PEEL finally gave up at 1.43pm and moved up to 3.6p. Within six minutes, both Cantor Fitzgerald and Berenberg moved down to 3.5p to replace PEEL, despite buys (at 3.5 or 3.49) accounting for more than 80% of trading so far.

Almost like they are trying to hold that line between them.

Interesting that a lot of those historical drill holes were relatively shallow - 100-200m.

Would also be interesting to try to combine the historical drill holes with the recent IP survey data. I don't have a good idea of relative scale.

Today's trading update :)

At the moment, the ask is 3.46 and the bid is 3.4601. Earlier a couple of 240k buys at 3.5 and it seems to be mainly buys since then apart from (I think) two 140k sells. Total volume 1.4m. Hard to tell though with the bid fractionally above the ask :)

Share price odd today. So far volume is 2.7m shares traded. Almost 2m of that is three large buys (2x 535k + 893k) and another 300k is 3 definite buys. Some of the other 22 trades might be buys too, but not as easy to tell.

So buy volume is about 6x sell volume and we are down :)

>> if not announced before end of June I’ll leave this board'

The above should the standard response to every SmellyBen post in future, because there is no way he will leave the board :)

>> The wordings of "Its not likely" & "would not expect" to have more dilution does not bode well going forward...watch this space

Struggling with the de-ramps today pyo :)

I assume you believe its more favourable for the company if the directors "would expect" and "believe likely". If you think the directors are lying on an RNS, maybe you should sell. Oh wait, I think you need shares to do that :)