Member Info for steph

SVB Uk taken over by HSBC So all GROW and portfolio deposits as normal and revolving loan agreement in tack We should recover much of the 14% drop Friday. maybe more if there is some US style support for whole banking sector.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/13/americas-government-steps-in-to-protect-depositors-at-silicon-valley-bank

This converts potentially loss making long term bonds into face value assets to borrow cheaply against. Eliminates interest rate risk entirely by doing so.

Very stimulative.

https://fortune.com/2023/03/13/svb-collapse-fdic-fed-zero-interest-rate/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/mccarthy-says-he-s-hopeful-for-svb-announcement-by-us-on-sunday

https://www.ft.com/content/cde4aa95-1cb5-408d-b35f-3216eaee46ae

Beides the stated fact that most deposits with barlays grow plc has over 20m in liquid assets with publically traded trustpilot . Also a couple of million iin uipath and a bit in CAZOO.

Seems some sort of bailout/support in the works. Can range from do miniumum which is a BOE credit window for affected firms to something strategic that helps the sector more than the status quo as of last wednesday.

My pref is full nationalization with a large injection of funds that allows UK SVB to assertivley chase business and maybe steal a bit form USA. Actually develop the cluster rather than tread water. Full nationaization could be followed a few months down the line with full or partial privatization at a large profit. NAt west model but accelerated.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/tech-firms-pour-cash-into-revolut-and-wise-amid-silicon-valley-bank-demise-b1066484.html

And the BOE/Treasury has the means to do it if it wants.

“The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was also calling for immediate action from the government to protect the UK’s startup sector “which drives growth and innovation across the economy”.
She said: “The chancellor must act urgently to understand the exposure of UK firms to the bank, and take action to prevent large-scale damage being done to this crucial sector of the British economy.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uks-hunt-says-might-manage-to-avoid-all-losses-for-svb-uk-customers-22vj5v2a4zolb9v.html

Lets see if can delivery, He has put PM on the firing line as well. Some reports say he worked with BOE close to all night. Cant’ remember an official government treasury announcement on a Sunday morning ever.

Huge opportunity for government to support UK VC tech sector and steal a bit of business and credibility form US. They can label it as a Brexit success even though unrelated.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-update-on-silicon-valley-bank-uk

Interesting. Don’t know why a statement ahead of a deal. They have until 8am Monday morning. Must indicate Hunt is confident something better than insolvency is probably or he is a fool for putting his name to this. He could have kept out of it and let the BOE take the political heat.

Assuming the worst our portfolio companies will get by. Maybe REVOLUT will gain deposits.

uninsured deposits in US are selling for between 50% and 90% value with Jeffries offering payment within 48 hours. Regulators warning not to sell uninsured deposits too cheap. Some founders of start up tech transferring own wealth to shore up payroll. Pretty disorderly but manageable. FED might get involved after all and arrange a marriage with a bigger bank. Biden woken up.

IN UK less evidence that SVB has actually lost money so higher chance that all uninsured deposits will sooner or later be returned in full. BOE and Treasury and Hunt looking at it over the weekend.

I’d prefer a government whole or part take over in exchange for capitalization. Same as was done for Lloyd's and Nat west in 2007. Government should make money on that when government shares ares sold off in 2 or 3 years time.

Monday we either bounce back or drop further based on RNS. Nothing we can do really. The drop if further bad news will occur in the microseconds when we can’t trade in front of the big boys. No point putting in a sell order without price. Highly likely on any dip it will gap and overshoot for a few seconds. Better to wait until later in the day if one really wants to sell.

for my money I’ll hold. I added quite a few Friday and missed the best price but low enough. Still think we will see 5 quid and more by year end results July, maybe by the April update.

i did not mean bailout for existing svb shareholders

boe may have been helpful to anybody who wants to take over by saying insolvent and freezing withdrawals. basically buying the company at zero

maybe boe jumped ghe gun but they did say administration unless something came up

so maybe just saying the obvious and working with multiple parties to take over

surprised fsa not concerned about london reputation damage especially if a cost free rescue as no losses just liquidity issues

roll on rock solid RNS monday 7am

revolut appears to be a be a beneficiary.

surprised some big bank has not been asked by boe to pick up svb uk no declared bad investments or losses just a run on deposits . was profitable before run so should have a positive balance sheet

seems harsh of boe as a genuine case of a good business caught out on a temporary unforeseeable liquidity event.

what irony that bank brought down by on overly successful vc market in 2021 combined with a need to buy bonds to store the cash. same as the market that needed boe intervention during the truss crash. sharp rises in interest rates can have unintended consequences. https://siliconcanals.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-svb-financial-collapse/

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/march/boe-statement-silicon-valley-bank-uk

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/10/european-markets-spooked-by-us-bank-shares-sell-off?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

slightly more complete article. hoping all will be much clearer for grow and portfolio before market open monday.

weekend a long time for these things. hope all parties use it wisely and we have a reassuring, robust, credible and complete rns

Erin Platts, CEO and Head of EMEA, said “As a reminder, Silicon Valley Bank UK is a standalone entity with its own balance sheet and governance structure. SVB has supported investors and innovators for 40 years and we have been so humbled with the consistent drum of support coming from our UK investor and founder community in last few days. We appreciate that this is a concerning time for our clients so we are working tirelessly to support them and give more context.”

that means no big losses to cover az us arm had plus weekend to work out liquidity issues connected to panic over assumed link to us arm

fsa boe much better than California regulators in a tight spot

i expect grow will issue a rns before open Monday to inform of exposure of itself and portfolio.

i expect that will be in part reassuring. the unknown caused a 14% dip from an already low base.