Member Info for Starchild

Tiburn. I now see your point in a clearer fashion as you're talking post spud and after a successful Persv-1 drill. It could very well happen as you state. Bgov are not under strict EU laws that stop them interfering or undertaking such investments. However I think the Gov could use its leverage to persuade the big oil companies to do a deal with BPC asap (if they need persuasion). Furthermore, the USA (Florida State) is putting pressure on BGov to stop BPC drilling near Florida for environmental reasons. This gives some negotiating leverage, 'Dear Florida State Gov: 'use your State and Federal influence to persuade a big oil company to do a great deal with BPC to help the Bahamas, and in return we could gently persuade BPC not to drill near Florida.'

The above are just a few ramblings on my part.

Starchild
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I have been buying up CERP stock recently and will likely continue to do so. I must be the dumbest alleged CERP ramper for buying AFTER stating positive things about CERP for the last 2 weeks. Furthermore, in terms of volume I should be considered as a slightly obese dolphin rather than a share gobbling whale. I do not expect this post to hit the headlines of the WSJ, Bloomberg or FT!

Why? my opinion as of today’s date:
1. I am convinced the merger will happen based on 1 simple assumption: for the merger to fail it will require approx. half of all retail investors in both companies to vote NO. I believe ALL institutional ones will vote yes, and the rest especially those with small holdings in the companies will show apathy to vote either way. Remember 25% (out of the total votes counted) need to vote against, rather than 75% of all shareholders having to vote YES.
2. I bought CERP, so as to purchase BPC at discount based on the post-merger conversion @.803%
3. I felt it risky to sell my substantial BPC shares to make a quick buck in arbitrage. Therefore, I did not and have kept them all.
4. Lind (CERP) will soon run out of shares to sell.
5. Other BPC shareholders will likely top up in next two weeks using same strategy.
6. Persons new to both stocks may buy CERP in lieu of the merger, until price is no more than 80% of the BPC real-time price.

I am also delighted Irene K (CERP BB) is now officially my sis, rather than a potential step-sis. I hope she invites me to family weddings and will be nice to me, rather than biting my ankles.

Starchild
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Disclaimer: above are just my opinions based on logic and my own in-depth research. ALWAYS take independent advice and DYOR as I could be totally wrong.

I have been buying up CERP stock recently and will likely continue to do so. I must be the dumbest alleged CERP ramper for doing so AFTER stating positive things about CERP for the last 2 weeks. Furthermore, in terms of volume I should be considered as a slightly obese dolphin rather than a share gobbling whale. I do not expect this post to hit the headlines of the WSJ, Bloomberg or FT!

Why? my opinion as of today’s date:
1. I am convinced the merger will happen based on 1 simple assumption: for the merger to fail it will require approx. half of all retail investors in both companies to vote NO. I believe ALL institutional ones will vote yes, and the rest especially those with small holdings in the companies will show apathy to vote either way. Remember 25% (out of the total votes counted) need to vote against, rather than 75% of all shareholders having to vote YES.
2. I bought CERP, so as to purchase BPC at discount based on the post-merger conversion @.803%
3. I felt it risky to sell my substantial BPC shares to make a quick buck in arbitrage. Therefore, I did not and have kept them all.
4. Lind will soon run out of shares to sell.
5. Other BPC shareholders will likely top up in next two weeks using same strategy.
6. Persons new to both stocks may buy CERP in lieu of the merger, until price is no more than 80% of the BPC real-time price.

I am also delighted Irene K is now officially my sis, rather than a potential step-sis. I hope she invites me the family weddings and will be nice to me, rather than biting my ankles.

Starchild
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Disclaimer: above are just my opinions based on logic and my own in-depth research. ALWAYS take independent advice and DYOR as I could be totally wrong.

Tiburn, very good analysis. Some on this BB suspect the BGov have assisted behind the scenes in guaranteeing the CLN without the BoD even knowing. (although no outstanding shares or debt are in play today). I think it would be politically dangerous for the gov to publicly state they will risk tax payers money. Especially as there are a minority of Bahamians who don't want the search for oil due to environmental reasons/risk of oil spillage. And another group that think BPC got too good a deal ...see 2012 article https://thenassauguardian.com/2012/04/26/we-must-nationalize-our-black-gold/

Starchild
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Pumpy: I wouldn't say that I'm actually ramping. It's just that in the unlikely event we don't merge with CERP, no oil is found, my other investments turn sour, and my various businesses collapse, I want to hedge my bet and get a part time job as a food marketing manager (Christmas delicacies) at Fortnum and Mason.

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As opposed to paint drying, I I see it more as a giant moist delicious gourmet Christmas pudding, infused with Remy Martin (Louise Xiii) cognac maturing over a period of time. When ready, it will excite the taste beds to the point of epicurean ecstasy and alcoholic inebriation.

Key ‘back to basics’ questions/observations:
1. Why would the CERP BoD unanimously vote for the merger and themselves out of a job? And potentially worse, to be paid one year’s severance in BPC shares?
2. CERP BoD were advised by VSA Capital Limited as to the financial terms of the [BPC/CERP] Merger. In the proposed merger RNS 11/6, ‘VSA consider the terms of the Merger to be fair and reasonable.' Yet on March 31 2020: ....'We [VSA Capital] reiterate our [CERP] Buy recommendation and target price of 21.6p/sh'. ...source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916212/vsa-capital-market-movers---columbus-energy-resources-916212.html . VSA Capital are a very reputable international company https://vsacapital.com/people/ and NOT a pump and dump boiler room outfit, seducing investors with a CERP outlook of 21.6p and within a few weeks recommending a merger TEMPORARILY valuing the SP at nearly 90% less!
3. Why would a pension fund (Mersey) and investment institution (J Finn) declare >1% holding in BPC? They could have bought a few thousand shares less and stayed under the radar.

Why? Why? Why? Because they believe in the merger, believe it will happen and believe a combined BPC/CERP will have access to capital markets/bonds/JVs to guarantee the drill for Perv-1 WILL happen without massive future share dilution. And they still believe despite no RNSs as yet. Today BPC is too risky and CERP too small but this will change after the merger. It means we (BPC) get our massive Bahamas billion dollar drill and we (CERP) get capital to find more oil in CERP acreage.

I too believe the merger is an excellent visionary move, despite no RNS (as yet) spelling out funding options. But don’t listen to my opinions as stated in my posts on this BB since 11/6, listen to theirs if you so wish. It’s up to you. DYOR.

Starchild
(PS: I’m a LTH since 2014. If I sold up now, I would still make a large capital gain but have chosen to stay on board for the mega spud. JC100: I do not feel I have ever been 'rogered' by the BoD!!!!)
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Laloo: based on your rather unproductive snide last post be assured I’m not a ‘know-it-all,’ have attempted to post rational opinions over the last few months to help everyone including dimwits. In fact I’m actually very humble. Last year I instructed solicitors over a libel matter. On a legal technicality relating to my skills for prophesy rather than any form of divinity, they strongly suggested I go for the more serious allegation of BLASPHEMY, however I declined such a pretentious act out of humbleness and personal religious belief. Have a wonderful day.

Starchild
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Since the 11/6 announcement of the proposed merger, I believe nearly every argument for and against has already been posted on this BB. There have been c2500 posts!!! As of today, I believe there are 7 key groups of sentiment:

1. To vote Yes and fully trust the BoD no matter what, as of today’s date.
2. To vote Yes with doubts and concerns.
3. To vote Yes under extreme protest that the BoD has not provided additional information as yet.
4. To await further RNSs before either voting or disposing of BPC shares. Prior to the vote deadline, if no further news, to do ‘3’ or ‘5.’ Or a total share disposal.
5. To vote No because the BoD has not provided additional information.
6. To vote No as a point of principle even if RNSs are forthcoming. (example: a shareholder who was happy for the huge spud risk/reward with one throw of the dice, but unhappy with the CERP merger ROI dilution).
7. To publicly state a Yes or No vote, despite having no shares or very few shares in either company, to attempt to move the share price up or down for personal strategic reasons.

I am a lth since 2014, and currently in the ‘1’ camp for reasons I have opined on in many posts since 11/6. Everyone will of course vote as they wish. We are not a religious cult where total obedience is expected and public dissent will result in ex-communication, a public whipping, or the death sentence for apostasy.

May the force be with you.

Starchild
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111112, welcome to the forum. It is the interests of the BoD not to dilute willy nilly, as their share options are fixed at 200m in total (if I recall from memory in the 11/6/20 RNS prospectus). They are aligned with ordinary shareholders and have this incentive. In my opinion even if 10 billion shares were issued to buy assets or merge with other companies such as CERP (with shareholder approval) it could be a good thing depending on the circumstances. To dilute for survival cash-flow is NOT good though. The above is just my opinion .

Starchild
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Although this article is undated and likely from c2018 it gives a good summary of the regional potential. Stena Drilling is mentioned and at the end of the article it discusses innovations using 3D PolarcusXArray methodology. The seismic cables, towed behind a vessel, can be up to 10 km in length and 1.6 km wide. When BPC/CERP gets access to the capital markets (and/or JVs) it will be able to invest in the best tech, to look for oil in CERP, Uruguay and Persv-2,3,4 Bahamian acreage.
https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/caribbean-discoveries-trigger-big-offshore-contracts-24721

Starchild

Although this article is undated and likely from c2018 it gives a good summary of the regional potential. Stena Drilling is mentioned and at the end of the article it discusses innovations using 3D PolarcusXArray methodology. The seismic cables, towed behind a vessel, can be up to 10 km in length and 1.6 km wide. When BPC/CERP gets access to the capital markets (and/or JVs) it will be able to invest in the best tech, to look for oil in CERP, Uruguay and Persv-2,3,4 Bahamian acreage.
https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/caribbean-discoveries-trigger-big-offshore-contracts-24721

Starchild

Columbus Energy (CERP) Voting instructions

I hereby vote in favour of ALL resolutions (special and ordinary) as proposed by the Board. As nominee please vote on my behalf. I have [xx,xxx,xxx] shares in the company. The Annual General Meeting will be held on 27 July 2020. Due to Covid-19, I believe virtual attendance will be permitted or you will be using the Crest system to block vote on behalf of your clients.

Please confirm these instruction will be actioned. [Recommendation for those wishing to vote ‘No’: ‘I hereby enclose three doctors’ letters two of which state I am probably of sound mind. I also attach a photo of me, my mental health social worker and CERPY my pet pink Unicorn.’]

Hugs and kisses
[name]
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'Model' Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) Voting instructions

I hereby vote in favour of ALL resolutions (special and ordinary) as proposed by the Board. As nominee please vote on my behalf. I have [xx,xxx,xxx] shares in the company. The Annual General Meeting will be held at IOMA House, Hope Street, Douglas, Isle of Man, IM1 1AP on 24 July 2020 at 10 am. Due to Covid-19, I believe virtual attendance will be permitted or you will be using the Crest system to block vote on behalf of your clients.

Please confirm these instruction will be actioned. [Recommendation for those wishing to vote ‘No’: ‘I hereby enclose three doctors’ letters two of which state I am probably of sound mind’]

Hugs and kisses
[name]
xxx

arma: you are spot on. If takeover implemented the long date is November 20th, but can be extended.

Mrbrian....ps....
4. (connected to point 3): someone else comes along with a hostile bid and offers a LOT more for CERP between now and the vote! (it would have to be a lot more than 80% of the estimated BPC SP between merger happening and spud)

Starchild

Mrbrian; In my opinion it is impossible for the CERP share price to go above 80% of the value of the BPC share price, unless:
1. an institutional trader has a fat finger and buys a huge amount by accident.
2. Someone with insider knowledge knows the merger will fail at the same time as knowing something good is about to be announced (eg, CERP's oil reserves have been under-reported, or a new well has been found.
3. A mega buyer knows something we don't AND wants to gamble the merger will fail.

Starchild

Red: Thanks for keeping us updated. My opinion is the FM event cannot be disputed by the BGov. Furthermore it still exists and as such they can't give an end date. It will be somewhat irrelevant if Stena drill by year end. Now, if they do not drill until 2021 and for some reason which is unfathomable as the Bahamas are in dire need of revenue, the Gov sequestrates the license...
(a) I cannot see legally how the Gov can argue it is NOT an FM in court. The legal system is sound and not a corrupt banana republic. Furthermore, its courts are subject to the Privy Council of the Commonwealth, for appeals.
(b) BPC didn't get environmental approval until Feb 2020 to even be allowed to drill in Bahamanian waters.
(c) Our BPC shares will likely soar based on the damages claim of gazillions!

I'm not worried, however it will be better to get the confirmation sooner rather than later.

Starchild
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Sugardaddy. I sense a lot of frustration and anger in your post. If you watch the presentation (my previous post), it shows that a combined CERP/BPC will have access to capital markets to monetize both companies prospects. Today, CERP is too small to do so, and BPC too risky.

How you vote is up to you, and I will respect that.

Starchild

If you have never watched the 18/6/20 merger presentation (26 mins), it is worth doing a deep dive as it provides a full picture of the synergies and benefits.
https://www.bpcplc.com/media-centre/presentations/documents/ (top left)

Starchild
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