Member Info for Starchild

Pump, 'What are the LTH's explanations for the share price drop?' In my opinion, .....

1. Relatively low volumes of share trades. 30m total in last few days since 7/7/20 causing an impact when people sell. Compounded by auto stop/losses by day trader
2. Private investors getting spooked based on false news, fake news and FEAR generated by short sellers on this forum and ADFVN.

The opposite can happen based on RNS developments. I still have full confidence in the BoD and used the opportunity to buy, I believe, undervalued shares.

I guess you must be very pleased.

Starchild

Irene, my beloved CERP Sister and fellow CERP shareholder……. I get the impression you are deflecting your frustrations towards me and others due to local acute shortages of frogs and newts to boil in your cauldron. Why don’t you get your broom serviced at Kwik Fit (with its fantastic customer service and amazing prices) and fly off somewhere for a while? Preferably for 10 years on a frog and newt infested desert island that doesn’t have internet or phone access. I’m sure the family and I can find ways to keep in-touch sis. Xxx

[My grateful thanks to Itochu corporation (Nasdaq: ITOCY) owners of Kwik-Fit who generously sponsored this message. As an independent expert with legendry predictive skills and being a pompous know-it-all, I have officially marked ITOCY as a STRONG BUY with a 32.4% potential upside by year end. I have no shares in ITOCY and if you’re gullible enough to believe that, you probably believe other posters on this forum who shamelessly manipulate SPs and get suspended, can be trusted.]

Starchild

Xxxx
ps...I'm rarely in the UK, and normally on a different time zone, hence the apparently very early morning posts you enjoy reading.

Bully: CEASE AND DESIST twisting my words. Your posts were totally misleading (and were torn apart) implying:
1. there will be 5.5b shares (over 100% dilution)
2. Wrongly stating 500m shares were needed to repay the CERP Loan, when the figure is approx 80m

You and a small team I allege, are colluding to wrongfully attempt to manipulate the SP down.
Karma

Pump: I have addressed it, or I should state, BPC has. Refer to my post last week 9/7/20 3am UK time. I copy it below.
Are you also accusing me of lying on this forum?....................

Key extracts from the BPC email Nimp01 ('Mr Robbie') presented at 10:44 8/7/20 is below, with my commentary in [ ] and my use of caps.

''In addition to these [already announced] specific financing arrangements, [ $11.4m, £10.25m, £16m] the Company retains the ABILITY TO UNDERTAKE AN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR PLACING with its corporate brokers and continues to hold discussions with potential industry partners in relation to a potential farmout. A more detailed review of the Company’s funding strategy can be found in our market announcement of 26 May 2020 [refer to STENA 10% option]……. Importantly, ACCESS to these finance options provides for the funding necessary to execute the well at the end of 2020 / start of 2021, and provides a “benchmark” against which future funding opportunities will be assessed in terms of cost and dilution. To the extent that funding options considered more advantageous become available to the Company, these can be pursued as an alternative to or in parallel with the above, so as to ensure the well is funded on the best terms (least cost/dilution) possible……Implicit in the above, and as stated in all of the Company public announcements to-date regarding funding options and farmout discussions, is the fact that the financing of the well will result in some level of dilution, at either the asset level (industry partnership/farmout) or corporate level (facility/equity finance)…….[and CERP assets] ''

[My view of the email……]

There is nothing in the email that is not already in the public domain. However BPC has practically guaranteed the spud for Persv-1 will happen and spelt out various probable and possible funding options:
1. Farm-out to 3rd party
2. Stena JV
3. Industry partnership (eg, ‘pay for the spuds and you can have xx% of oil found’]
4. Corporate facility (eg ‘lend us $30m for 3 years secured on BPC/CERP assets’)
5. Institutional investor placing (eg, BONDS). Refer to https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/institutional+investor )
6. Equity finance
7. CLN(s) (the ‘benchmark’ WORST CASE scenario if (a) Merger doesn’t happen and (b) 1-6 doesn’t happen.

Key takeaways an opinions: there are various funding options on the cards post merger. All cause some dilution whether to future profits, dividends or shares. However the bigger our market cap, the less this will be. The BoD will leverage the best deal for shareholder value. The spud will happen.

That's my view. Your views will be welcome.

Starchild

According to recent news articles including this one http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/may/26/bahamas-facing-eye-popping-100-debt/ Bahamas national debt is heading to 100% of GDP. This generally fiscally responsible country has had to deal with a devastating hurricane and Covid-19. The country does not have the EU to help bail it out (eg Greece c170%). Furthermore the Bahamian Dollar is pegged to the USD, so they can’t devalue without a paradigm shift in monetary policy.

If BPC spuds a middle eastern size well 1st quarter 2021, and the reserves are PROVEN a few weeks/months later, it will mean the following:
1. Dependent on PoO, the size of the proven reserves and quality, the BPC SP may eventually soar to well above the analysts predictions of c30p or $1 in market cap per barrel. That’s just the beginning otherwise institutional investors and PIs wouldn’t risk to buy at >30p/share to make a measly 10-20% profit. They will buy for the medium to long-term (a few months to 4 years) to make a serious ROI from future dividends or an M+A, or farm-out to a big oil company.
2. It will also mean the BGov can, to a degree leverage lower interest rates for its debt (from the c25% future royalties BPC has to pay), in the same way a 27 year old can probably go to a bank and leverage, to a degree, borrowing against a mega trust fund which kicks in on his/hers 30th birthday.

The BGov wants the spud to happen as much as we do.

Starchild
xxx

According to recent news articles including this one http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/may/26/bahamas-facing-eye-popping-100-debt/ Bahamas national debt is heading to 100% of GDP. This generally fiscally responsible country has had to deal with a devastating hurricane and Covid-19. The country does not have the EU to help bail it out (eg Greece c170%). Furthermore the Bahamian Dollar is pegged to the USD, so they can’t devalue without a paradigm shift in monetary policy.

If BPC spuds a middle eastern size well 1st quarter 2021, and the reserves are PROVEN a few weeks/months later, it will mean the following:
1. Dependent on PoO, the size of the proven reserves and quality, the BPC SP may eventually soar to well above the analysts predictions of c30p or $1 in market cap per barrel. That’s just the beginning otherwise institutional investors and PIs wouldn’t risk to buy at >30p/share to make a measly 10-20% profit. They will buy for the medium to long-term (a few months to 4 years) to make money a serious ROI from future dividends or an M+A, or farm-out to a big oil company.
2. It will also mean the BGov can, to a degree leverage lower interest rates for its debt (from the c25% future royalties BPC has to pay), in the same way a 27 year old can probably go to a bank and leverage, to a degree, borrowing against a mega trust fund which kicks in on his/hers 30th birthday.

The BGov wants the spud to happen as much as we do.

Starchild
xxx

Bynari, Very good find if you pardon the pun, re your post on CERP BB earlier today https://tinyurl.com/ybhgrk6f. Although the interview was from 2013, everything still applies. It took the BGov until Feb 2020 to give environmental approval, so I don't think its fair for some folks to lay the full blame on the BoD for delays while they were simultaneously searching for farm-in partners. BPC has now spent c$100m vs $50m in 2013 proving oil is there (or as stated in the interview, trying to disprove it). I also found the part of the interview at 5 mins 30 seconds interesting about news flow for 6-12 months leading to spud..... significantly increasing BPC SP.

Starchild

Bynari, good find if you pardon the pun. Although the interview was from 2013, everything still applies. It took the BGov until Feb 2020 to give environmental approval, so I don't think its fair for some folks to lay the full blame on the BoD for delays while they were simultaneously searching for farm-in partners. BPC has now spent c$100m vs $50m in 2013 proving oil is there (or as stated trying to disprove it). I also found the part of the interview at 5 mins 30 seconds interesting about news flow for 6-12 months leading to spud..... significantly increasing BPC SP.

Starchild

Bully's Fake news post 3. He 'forgot' to mention RNS 1/6/20 that superseded the one he quoted.

RNS 1/6/20 bottom of page 2 with my CAPS for emphasis....: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w11dm9w ……

‘As announced on 1 May 2020, the investor has previously converted, in aggregate, £3.165 million of the amounts drawn down by the Company into new ordinary shares. The Company has now received a conversion notice in respect of the remaining balance of £1.535 million, at a conversion price of 1.27 pence per share, and, pursuant to the terms of the Facility, the Company will proceed to issue 120,866,141 new ordinary shares (the "Conversion Shares") to the investor. Thereafter, there will be NO FURTHER CONVERTIBLE NOTES REMAINING ON ISSUE and the Company will have NO debts owing under the Facility and NO material debts owing to any other parties. The Company considers an essentially DEBT-FREE balance sheet with retained cash holdings to be an advantageous position as it looks to develop its funding strategy in a changed market landscape, ahead of drilling in late 2020’.

[My bottom line: Warning: always DYOR, check previous posts by clicking on their name, and assume the person posting has a conflict of interest including me. Why would anyone want to say negative things about a share they purportedly own, unless they don’t]

Starchild

Bully's Fake news post 3. He 'forgot' to mention RNS 1/6/20 that superseded the one he quoted.

RNS 1/6/20 bottom of page 2 with my CAPS for emphasis....: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w11dm9w ……

‘As announced on 1 May 2020, the investor has previously converted, in aggregate, £3.165 million of the amounts drawn down by the Company into new ordinary shares. The Company has now received a conversion notice in respect of the remaining balance of £1.535 million, at a conversion price of 1.27 pence per share, and, pursuant to the terms of the Facility, the Company will proceed to issue 120,866,141 new ordinary shares (the "Conversion Shares") to the investor. Thereafter, there will be NO FURTHER CONVERTIBLE NOTES REMAINING ON ISSUE and the Company will have NO debts owing under the Facility and NO material debts owing to any other parties. The Company considers an essentially DEBT-FREE balance sheet with retained cash holdings to be an advantageous position as it looks to develop its funding strategy in a changed market landscape, ahead of drilling in late 2020’.

[My bottom line: Warning: always DYOR, check previous posts by clicking on their name, and assume the person posting has a conflict of interest including me. Why would anyone want to say negative things about a share they purportedly own, unless they don’t]

Starchild

Bully's post is again misleading and stating as facts what are NOT facts.
1. CERP shares 800m post merger in BPC equivalent NOT 935m
2. 200m Warrants irrelevant until 2021-2024 IF SP soars. Refer to my post this morning .
3. Rest of his 'evidence' is totally fabricated stating as fact the BoD have committed to the need to issue 1.8b shares making the total 5-5.5b. Refer to my point 3 from this morning. And he has used misquoted RNSs from May/June as a precedent that if a CLN is executed it will be at around 1.2p!!!

Bully: stop this mis-information. Assuming you have any shares, I suggest you sell them if you are so worried about mega dilution and don't trust the BoDs who unanimously voted in favour of the merger . I suspect and allege you are just shorting the stock for personal gain at the expense of others.

Bully's post is again misleading and stating as facts what are NOT facts.
1. CERP shares 800m post merger in BPC equivalent NOT 935m
2. 200m Warrants irrelevant until 2021-2024 IF SP soars. Refer to my post this morning .
3. Rest of his 'evidence' is totally fabricated stating as fact the BoD have committed to the need to issue 1.8b shares making the total 5-5.5b. Refer to my point 3 from this morning. And he has used misquoted RNSs from May/June as a precedent that if a CLN is executed it will be at around 1.2p!!!

Bully: stop this mis-information. Assuming you have any shares, I suggest you sell them if you are so worried about mega dilution and don't trust the BoDs who unanimously voted in favour of the merger . I suspect and allege you are just shorting the stock for personal gain at the expense of others.

Bully1985’s post is misleading. My commentary in [ ]

1. Let's talk about the shares in issue - you say there are 3.4billion in issue after the merger. [correct, INCLUDING shares to pay off Lind debt. See point 5 ]

2. This ignores the convertible loan options and other options and warrants currently outstanding. [As at merger date there are NO BPC CLNs that can be triggered. Outstanding debt: NONE. Cash in the bank: approx. 10m BPC + c2m? CERP]

3. When the loan is fully drawn down it will have created convertible shares of approximately 1.25billion @ 1.28p. [WHAT LOAN? WHERE DID he get a figure of 1.28p from relating to future CLNs if any? NO RNS has been issued stating this will happen. Refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM. It discusses future funding options and future dilution.]

4. There are currently a further 200million share option or warrants outstanding @ 2.34p average. [These are part of the directors and staff incentive packages, many of whom have worked with reduced pay or no pay. BoD options and warrants are usually triggered when a company is doing very well, otherwise there is no point triggering them! They are a common incentive for public companies worldwide, with the exception of dictatorships where the incentive to perform is to avoid being imprisoned or getting shot. ]

5. There are also further shares issue for the repayment of the Lind loan facility to come (although can't find any exact figures - assume another 500m shares) [This is FALSE and the assumption WRONG. Lind debt will be paid off by Trafalgar with 80m shares NOT 500m. These 80m are included in the 3.4b total in point 1 above. ]

6. So assuming no further dilution you are looking at closer to 5.5billion shares. Given the reduction on the current SP of these share option and warrants they will be sold into and the surpress the SP for a long time. [Bully’s bottom line maths is based on misleading exaggerations and as such the calculations irrelevant and WRONG ]

7. on the subject of dilution BPC asked for further issuance of new shares for the BoD (laughable given their current options) and for further shareholders so unlikely there will not be further dilution. [Refer to point 4 re BoD incentive]

[My bottom line: to have a difference of opinion is fine. To scaremonger based on fake information and exaggeration of the known facts is NOT. Bully should sell his shares (if he has any) and go off and short another company]

Starchild

Bully1985’s post is misleading. My commentary in [ ]

1. Let's talk about the shares in issue - you say there are 3.4billion in issue after the merger. [correct, INCLUDING shares to pay off Lind debt. See point 5 ]

2. This ignores the convertible loan options and other options and warrants currently outstanding. [As at merger date there are NO BPC CLNs that can be triggered. Outstanding debt: NONE. Cash in the bank: approx. 10m BPC + c2m? CERP]

3. When the loan is fully drawn down it will have created convertible shares of approximately 1.25billion @ 1.28p. [WHAT LOAN? WHERE DID he get a figure of 1.28p from relating to future CLNs if any? NO RNS has been issued stating this will happen. Refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM. It discusses future funding options and future dilution.]

4. There are currently a further 200million share option or warrants outstanding @ 2.34p average. [These are part of the directors and staff incentive packages, many of whom have worked with reduced pay or no pay. BoD options and warrants are usually triggered when a company is doing very well, otherwise there is no point triggering them! They are a common incentive for public companies worldwide, with the exception of dictatorships where the incentive to perform is to avoid being imprisoned or getting shot. ]

5. There are also further shares issue for the repayment of the Lind loan facility to come (although can't find any exact figures - assume another 500m shares) [This is FALSE and the assumption WRONG. Lind debt will be paid off by Trafalgar with c80m shares NOT 500m. These 80m are included in the 3.4b total in point 1 above. ]

6. So assuming no further dilution you are looking at closer to 5.5billion shares. Given the reduction on the current SP of these share option and warrants they will be sold into and the surpress the SP for a long time. [Bully’s bottom line maths is based on misleading exaggerations and as such the calculations irrelevant and WRONG ]

7. on the subject of dilution BPC asked for further issuance of new shares for the BoD (laughable given their current options) and for further shareholders so unlikely there will not be further dilution. [Refer to point 4 re BoD incentive]

[My bottom line: to have a difference of opinion is fine. To scaremonger based on fake information and exaggeration of the known facts is NOT. Bully should sell his shares (if he has any) and go off and short another company]

Starchild

Sugardaddy: Firstly, I believe your post is well argumented and fair considering you are totally against the merger. You are not attempting to mislead anyone to agree with your point of view. I will attempt to reciprocate having stated for the record I am totally in favour of the merger.

1. I disagree Trafalgar will dump 80m shares. Remember 2 BPC CLNs were repaid in shares in May and June, total 199m. Despite this and evidence the holders were selling off, the BPC SP doubled. However I agree Trafalgar being a financial institution and not a speculator in frontier oil exploration companies will dispose of most of their shares. Furthermore, 80m shares over a period of a weeks or months is nothing: just over 2% of the merged company.
2. I disagree the ex-Columbus directors will dump all their shares. They have insider knowledge about the merger and unanimously voted in favour. They know of stuff we don’t, however I agree they may sell some of their shares if they need cashflow money while unemployed, unless they are given short term consulting contracts by BPC.
3. I agree BPC are asking for shareholder approval for 1.8b shares of which only half will be issued for the CERP merger. It makes perfect sense to have shareholder pre-approval for the remaining shares otherwise it causes admin headaches and more voting. Some may be used in the permutations you stated. Please refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM UK time. Some of the unallocated shares may be used if worst case scenario point 7 in that post is applicable to do Bahamas spud.
4. I agree with your quote, ‘However, they have stated that "given current financial resources, the Company does not anticipate requiring any further working capital for the next 12 months’
5. Please refer to my post at 8am this morning, re the possible upward pressure on the SP over the next few months until spud, to over compensate for the potential downward pressure of above points 1, 2, and possibly 3.

Bottom line: readers of your post and mine can make their own decisions. However it is good that you and I with totally different viewpoints can have a civilized public debate in a respectful way.

Have a good afternoon. I'm about to watch some footie.

Starchild

BPC Webinar event Thursday 16/7 1800 UK time event.webinarjam.com/register/341/gwwg2ho5

(courtesy of Linton78 on BPC BB....Thanks Linton)

Starchild

Bully: I'm more than prepared to do research (backed with references and justifications) and be generally helpful...my currently busy schedule permitting. What I'm not prepared to do is research on behalf of persons who don't read my prior posts properly, de-ramp, and misquote my posts to argue their case.

1. I believe a combined BPC/CERP will have a market cap of MUCH more than £125m pre-spud and given rationale opinions since 11/6/20 based on research and previous precedent, which I suggest you read, rather than asking me to retype everything again. I haven't got the time to be your PA.

2. I am still awaiting an apology from you for starting an offensive thread yesterday entitled, 'Little Rat', alleging I snitched on you.

Have a great day

Starchild

Bully, re your comment...'What on earth makes you think a fair value for BPC/CERP is also £125million'.
1. What makes you state I came up with this figure?
2. Read my post again
3. Watch the presentations again
4. Fact: BPC in Feb 2020, without CERP, interday SP was 5.72p and hit a market cap of £121m on 25/2/20 (ref https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L) with c2.1b shares in play.

Make your own decisions and DYOR

Starchild

Assuming for simplicity there are 3.4b shares in the combined BPC/CERP after merger, using figures as stated in recent presentations which talked of a combined market cap of £125m this equates to a SP of 3.67p. However for the sake of this exercise, let’s be conservative and use a combined market cap of c£100m and 3p per BPC share as a bottom line base, on the morning after the merger.

What will affect this 3p baseline until year end are two sets of future news: BPC news relating to events leading to the Bahamas spud and CERP news on everything else. For simplicity I will use the following assumptions:
1. BPC news post-merger will affect c75% of the overall SP and market cap; CERP news c25%.
2. BPC news expected will likely deal purely with the spud, and in February 2020 experts predicted 8p. For simplicity, rather than a prediction on my part, let’s assume this figure is 6p post-merger, not taking into account CERP news, but taking into account 800m new CERP converted shares.
3. CERP news expected post-merger (courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20) includes
• New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
• Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
• Start drilling S2 ASAP
• Successful CO2-project
• Concrete Plans for WNZ
4. LGO-fan also predicted possibility of 5-10p SP had CERP remained as now, un-merged, based on above news.

Key questions:
(a) How much will the £100m market cap (3p/share) increase based on the above scenarios leading to a DEFINITE Perv-1 spud?
(b) How will the SP change based on positive or negative CERP news?
(c) What will happen when other institutional investors in addition to J Finn and Mersey pension fund, have a flutter based on the huge ROI potential of finding a middle eastern sized oil field 1st qtr 2021? (Remember a small flutter on their part, equates to a typical private investor’s life’s savings)

All constructive feedback welcome.

Starchild
xxx

Assuming for simplicity there are 3.4b shares in the combined BPC/CERP after merger, using figures as stated in recent presentations which talked of a combined market cap of £125m this equates to a SP of 3.67p. However for the sake of this exercise, let’s be conservative and use a combined market cap of c£100m and 3p per BPC share as a bottom line base, on the morning after the merger.

What will affect this 3p baseline until year end are two sets of future news: BPC news relating to events leading to the Bahamas spud and CERP news on everything else. For simplicity I will use the following assumptions:
1. BPC news post-merger will affect c75% of the overall SP and market cap; CERP news c25%.
2. BPC news expected will likely deal purely with the spud, and in February 2020 experts predicted 8p. For simplicity, rather than a prediction on my part, let’s assume this figure is 6p post-merger, not taking into account CERP news, but taking into account 800m new CERP converted shares.
3. CERP news expected post-merger (courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20) includes
• New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
• Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
• Start drilling S2 ASAP
• Successful CO2-project
• Concrete Plans for WNZ
4. LGO-fan also predicted possibility of 5-10p SP had CERP remained as now, un-merged, based on above news.

Key questions:
(a) How much will the £100m market cap (3p/share) increase based on the above scenarios leading to a DEFINITE Perv-1 spud?
(b) How will the SP change based on positive or negative CERP news?
(c) What will happen when other institutional investors in addition to J Finn and Mersey pension fund, have a flutter based on the huge ROI potential of finding a middle eastern sized oil field 1st qtr 2021? (Remember a small flutter on their part, equates to a typical private investor’s life’s savings)

All constructive feedback welcome.

Starchild
xxx