Member Info for StarBright

Nice move.

Someone posted a punchy offer into the closing auction, and some existing holders were keen to oblige.

Perhaps an Authorised Participant buying for the GDXJ funds? They can be clumsy in execution at times when they have a basket to complete. If GGP has a 0.8% weight that would imply a net creation of 2,858,000 x 16.9p / 0.8% x 1.31 = USD80m. Plausible.

"Major Nickel producer is the short
Short position is 200kt at an average price of $21k
Marked-to-market loss is $12bn
3 banks and 2 LME brokers are the counterparties
Nothing stopped out yet
Margin calls missed."

https://twitter.com/METhompson72/status/1501146856637751298

"Big shot" allegedly sitting on M2M losses >USD1bn at the point trading was suspended, prior to any roll-back of trades.

Remind me who owns LME...?

@Jackbal - Gold biased equities are equities first and foremost. They react (in the short term) as equities during periods of price volatility and dislocation. The current circumstances that are driving rises in PoG are simultaneously driving falls in equities.

It's really no more complex than that.

RNS here was - in truth - disappointing for the traders who've bought in in the last week or so. The ones hiding in plain sight on this 'board as usual...

Patience may yet be rewarded here if and when the project(s) are further proved up.

@Bloomberg says: “Nickel surged to a fresh record on Tuesday -- touching $58,000 a ton -- after jumping as much as 90% the day before in one of the most dramatic one-day moves ever in commodity markets. Prices have been rallying for weeks, as traders worry about the possibility of disruption to supplies from Russia, the largest exporter of refined nickel.

Monday’s squeeze was driven by market participants with short positions being forced to close them out because they couldn’t meet margin calls, brokers and traders said. Bloomberg has previously reported that Chinese entrepreneur Xiang Guangda -- known as “Big Shot” -- had a large short position on the LME through his company, Tsingshan Holding Group Co., the world’s largest nickel and stainless steel producer.”

Nickel. There’s a financial markets / trading story building here. Price action may indicate a short squeeze rather than a “real” re-marking. There are reports this morning that a Chinese bank has had to ask for extra time to meet margin requirements. One to watch…

Those who are invested from ages ago, whether they are sitting tight or selling up - no problem.

Those buying today that have driven the double-digit gains - different story.

OT, but fits thread title...

Is it just me that is disappointed to see the likes of RAV, POG and EVR in the top risers list today, apparently fuelled by PI "bargain hunting"? Sad to see posts on their discussion boards celebrating - "Cracking day...", "This is going rather well today..." etc.

I wonder if the speculative rise(s) driven by morality-impaired AIM punters are being sold into by Abramovic and his unpleasant friends. For me this is blood money.

Correct… Price will move properly only when new capital shows up.

Perhaps what we see here reflects only that the two jv partners have different narrative priorities at this point?

GGP needs to put itself in the strongest possible position ahead of q4 and the arrival of the FS. This means being able and ready to stand its corner in terms of CapEx, without the proceeds of the 5% sale if necessary. An independently verified MRE showing resource progression is very valuable in discussions with potential debt- or equity- providers, and SD tells us (frequently!) that those discussions are underway. The release today is great news and provides a firm foundation for such discussions.

NCM probably doesn't have this pressure - especially as its operating profitability is improved by higher PoG etc. It may well be looking to fund its share of Hav CapEx from cashflow and existing facilities. It would perhaps prefer to settle market grumbling about the Pretium transaction first, before making a grand unveiling of a Tier 1 "saviour of Telfer" alongside the FS toward the end of 2022.

So it is possible that SD has simply said to SB that GGP will put out its own MRE2. I suspect that SB will have shrugged - there's not a lot he can do beyond this. Perhaps some minor tensions over what I think we can interpret as a change of plan from what the jv partners had envisaged, but nothing beyond that.

As always, those looking to sensationalise and hype ("Gloves off", "...***ing on Sandeep's cornflakes" etc etc etc) are indulging their own proclivities rather than providing useful analysis or discussion.

I see the RNS today as a really positive step. This in terms of the updated resources themselves, and because its issuance reflects GGP/SD's quiet confidence. Thoughtful observers will acknowledge that 6.5M oz AuEq is within the envelope of existing market expectations, so won't in itself create a re-rating. Especially as investors risk-appetite is muted by geo-political events.

@smiller - of the 38 constituents of the AIM Precious Metals & Mining sector, only 9 are positive as I type.

It's a risk-off day across capital markets @smiller, and even long-established companies that are producing solid cashflow have been hit hard. Never mind speculative AIM miners! You'll not find the answer to your question in LSE trade reports and bulletin board conspiracy theories. Try Sky news or similar.

I took a look at EUA, and the EUA discussion board. It's not pretty. Some disgraceful ramping (even yesterday) in amidst many many posts by obviously inexperienced investors. It looks/reads more like a cult than any attempt at discussion. Expect some sad stories from those suckered in and over-exposed.

Seriously? I suspect NCM will just respond saying that they continue to meet all their disclosure obligations. They have no particular obligations to GGP shareholders after all...

Accusing NCM of manipulation and nefarious purposes etc - especially on a public forum - is probably not sensible. Inciting others here to do the same via some sort of pile-on is worse.

Most likely outcome if NCM are inundated with copycat emails is that SD gets an irritated message/call from NCM's IR people and has to make a sheepish apology on your (collective) behalf. Why not just let SD and his team get on with their jobs; I don't think this is the sort of "help" they will value.

@Matty56 - thank you, I agree on all points.

The critical period for GGP is going to be around the DFS. I expect to see NCM try to squeeze at this point, perhaps by insisting that GGP demonstrates it can fully fund (eg it is not reliant on operating cashflow) its share of committed mining costs etc. SD looks and sounds very focussed on this. As long as GGP is able to demonstrate it can stand its corner when the time comes we have a clear line of sight to 25% of everything that comes out of Hav. That’s where the real value lies.

@L-A; NCM has a market cap of USD14bn, and a similar level of gross assets. The ‘cost’ of the 5% will be a balance sheet not p&l entry. Even at the levels you indicate, I’m confident they would argue no disclosure necessary as immaterial - & uncertain at this point . I would expect them to announce if/when terms are agreed.

GGP obviously has a different perspective / context. It was appropriate for them to RNS.

It’s not long since some of the ardent detractors here were singing his praises...!

My view is that some here have been too ready to paint a picture of Sandeep Biswas as a beleaguered CEO. There aren’t many data-points for this beyond the bullying story (which may reflect contemporary mores and the political correctness of Australian public life) and the reported comments from Allan Gray regarding support for acquisitions. Like politicians, all CEO’s have vocal detractors and queues of people wanting to paint them in a bad light. Don’t be too ready to draw conclusions from this. It is is entirely likely that he retains the effective support of the board and principal shareholders.

Thank you for sharing these responses from the company. Their tone and content are interesting.

This statement - “Greatland was initially surprised by the change in direction of Newcrest's decision not to update the Havieron Reserve & Resources, particularly in the context of what had been a meaningful and successful drilling campaign.” is strikingly unambiguous and direct. I read it as intended to put some pressure on NCM regarding their disclosure processes and decisions.

In common with most large quoted companies, NCM has a “Disclosure Committee”, intended to provide assurance to the board that the company is meeting its disclosure obligations in an accurate, complete and timely manner. In practice the real purpose of these committees is to provide challenge to CEO’s who may (at times) be tempted to interpret disclosure requirements in the light of their commercial objectives. Here’s the charter for NCM’s version: https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2021-02/Disclosure%20Committee%20Charter.pdf .

I’m sure that SD will have been careful to ensure that his expression of surprise is seen by one or more of the members of NCM’s disclosure committee. As GGP shareholders we might hope that this at least creates internal discussion within NCM, that it puts the committee on watch. It is slightly disappointing that there’s no non-exec representation on the NCM committee, as that’s usually the most effective route for shareholder pressure (as non-execs are less beholden to the CEO).

I posted something last week suggesting that NCM may have relied upon a materiality argument when justifying not disclosing any update to the MRE regarding Hav. It is an interesting conflict when news is highly material to one listed partner in a JV but not to the other. I don’t know how such a situation would generally be resolved, but I hope to find out by watching here…

They can acquire another 700k normally, not "magically"...

That is the point. Business as usual here from what I can see.

Posters promoting the idea of a buy-back (and FWIW I believe this is possible, if not likely) should recognise that it could have the effect of increasing Biosynex's % holding.