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A long thread with some thoughtful contributions. @JJNorton’s original pivot point idea has merit in my view as it contemplates market perception of time, costs of extraction and risk etc. Responses were perhaps shaped more by the £100m chosen to simplify illustration than by the underlying idea.

I expect the JV partners to reach agreement on the 5% without (publicly at least!) rocking the boat that is sailing smoothly. The price* will be lower than some posters are hoping for - partly because of the “three-factors-that-are-not-permitted-to-be-mentioned-here”, and partly because future development potential will have to be “risked” one way or another. In simple terms, Fair Market Value =/= Future Market Value. It may - as I have proposed previously, and as discussed by @sydjames and @Matty56 above - be better to consider the 5% as the last instalment of the farm-in rather than as an advance on the final 25%. I am optimistic that the deal for the 5% will be a material positive for GGP’s funding position, but I am sceptical as to whether it will prove to be the near-term positive inflection point in sp that some are looking for. We may see some volatility - in price and on this board - as a result. MRE upgrades will be more important in the long run, so constitute the major area of interest in forthcoming news for investors.

The “Gated Feasibility Study to Execution” in q4 looks to me like the point at which the real excitement will start, because it is then that the project might be dressed to the nines for capital raising purposes. If so we will find out how wholesale capital providers (both debt & equity) are prepared to value the project, and I am sure that NCM will throw all it has behind this. I think their interests are best served by maximising value perception then, rather than now.

At the end of the day the only sure way for GGP to realise the “future market value” of the 25% will be to hold its interest for the long term, and it has every opportunity to do this. If (as I suspect) NCM really really want 100% then GGP will have an opportunity to exit at a premium. Q4 will present some big decisions for SD and his team, and we’ll get a better indication then of how big the prize is.

*I will be surprised to see anything other than one straightforward price as the underlying concept of FMV is at odds with the idea of agreeing a formula to adjust for future developments.

To some degree this is poor form by ARV, who appear motivated by the idea they'll see higher valuation metrics here than they do in Aus. A little like all those UK tech companies looking to boost their sp's by getting listed on NASDAQ. ARV might be right, but I prefer to see companies focusing on their own intrinsic merits/achievements/possibilities rather than referring so overtly to the shinier spoons in the drawer...

Nonsense..! Look around you at what is happening in equity markets generally. SPX down nearly 2% today. Small(er) caps are always marked down the most. No further explanation required…

@Sp28 - the very first cases of Omicron in the UK were identified in the last week of November. It’s entirely unrealistic to think this would have had an impact on sales in December. NCYT is not an FMCG company….

Yes - you have to look at EV here not MCap. And prior year comparisons we all know are irrelevant.

This is all on the positive side of expectations. The doomsayers have been disproved by an underlying business that continues to deliver sales with strong gross margins.

First read…

Sales close (enough) to indicated level of £100m
>£100m cash
Margin maintained at 70%
DHSC no more news

Agreed/understood - but I think that what’s happening in markets is more driven by worries over US rates than it is by Ukraine.

Why not @Baldylocks? You'll get more for your money...

Sorry - hit "post" too early...

When we see episodes like this, it is normal for mining shares to behave more like equities (ie to take a risk-off hammering) than like their underlying commodities. If precious metals are strong, this will eventually translate into sp appreciation for their owners and miners. It can take a bit of time though, so those hoping their mining stocks will exhibit defensive qualities will need to sit tight.

I agree re not getting down, but I'd look west for the cause of the risk-off spasm that is affecting many asset classes. Despite media coverage, my sense is that this is about the Fed and rates expectations more than it is about Russia. Whilst we are enjoying a broad-based sell-off here in the UK & Europe, it is becoming more nuanced in the US with material differences between sectors showing clearly. In many ways the US indices are hiding the real underlying story; many US tech names are now trading 30-40% down from ATH's seen in late 2021. There is a lot of rotation going on beneath the surface. For fund managers this is an interesting time as when the water goes out we get to find out who has been swimming naked. Expect active fund returns in 2022 to be "unevenly distributed" - some of the SPACs (perhaps particularly ARKK) are getting properly beaten. The US still sets the tone/context against which markets operate, and sector differentiation/rotation there often indicates the last stages of a correction. I am hopeful that this is the case now, and that the bottom (in index terms) isn't far away.

On the ground developments east of the Dnieper won't be helpful, but conflict doesn't look inevitable to me at this point.

Interesting / good article. Thank you.

The Australian financial services landscape is shaped differently to ours. It’s a smaller market (25m people) so in general they have fewer scale players and you tend to see the same names cropping up in different horizontals. In this instance - custody/nominee services - the marketplace is dominated by the names you see on NCM’s register. That’s why you will see the same names crop up in other Aus quoted entities. They have a well-developed and funded pension system, which was among the first globally to operate with mandatory contributions. Out of this has grown an impressive asset management industry with some truly excellent independents like Allan Gray who are NCM’s biggest shareholder. The multi-nationals are there, and are strong within niches, but they don’t dominate as they do elsewhere due to the quality of the home grown firms.

According to Newcrest themselves, as at 1 September 2021:

1 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 45.71%
2 J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA PTY LIMITED 17.34%
3 CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 15.1%
4 NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED 3.07%
5 BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD 2.19%
6 BNP PARIBAS NOMINEES PTY LTD 1.47%
7 BNP PARIBAS NOMINEES PTY LTD SIX SIS LTD 0.88%
8 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 0.69%
9 BNP PARIBAS NOMINEES PTY LTD ACF CLEARSTREAM 0.51%
10 CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 0.41%
Source: Pg 190, https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2021-09/20393_Newcrest_AR_2021.pdf

Confirmation bias and inadequate contextual knowledge will lead to this data being misinterpreted here...

Of greater interest are the disclosed substantial shareholders as notified to Newcrest:

Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd and its related bodies corporate, 9.9%
BlackRock Group, 9.14%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. and its controlled entities, 5.001%

@Canary3. Whenever I want to get a 20m short on GGP, here’s what I do:

T-1
- organise a Zoom to ensure all players are on deck:
- All 7 market makers
- FCA regulation
- Craig from LSE
- Every trader with a DMA facility
- ‘Deep Throat’ who manages trade reporting on the ‘exchange
- Colin, Sliotar, BiggL, Coolio and the rest of the LSE team
- In the last hour of the day suspend Operation Smackdown, our ongoing price manipulation / market management program on the LSE ‘board. The SP will rise sharply
- ‘Deep Throat’ will ensure that all buys are reported as sells and all sells are reported as sells, as well as readying some “late halibuts” to report after the bell. Also some CANX trades for maximum confusion
- This will throw the LSE ‘board into a flat spin, especially @not-the-sharpest-tool-in-the-shed
- Working closely together into the closing auction, all 7 market makers + every trader in the market with DMA will fix the UT to create a launchpad for T0

T0
- Keep Operation Smackdown on hold, so the price rises sharply through the early morning
- Wait for a window when @Hydro is temporarily distracted from “defending his investment”
- With preparations complete, use algos operating in a dark pool to *DROP THE SHOMB*
- Reinstate Smackdown, letting Colin, Sliotar, Coolio and the boys have at it on the LSE ‘board. Their specific objective is react to @Hydro’s posts, countering them as best they can
- Posts that are just too good to counter will be nuked by Craig from LSE
- The 7 market-makers will operate in close collaboration/formation throughout this period to ensure that all buys are reported as sells and all sells are reported as sells
- With shockwaves from the Shomb reverberating around the market, watch the price slide whilst stroking the white kitten on my lap
- Mid-afternoon (whilst no-one is watching) buy the short back without moving the price
- Pay off the team, count my winnings and organise celebratory beers in the Hamilton Hall

Simples ;>

@Zoros, you say that “ MM's can only go on what has been independently declared not on what to expect in future...obviously.”

MM’s aren’t really interested in what has or hasn’t been “independently declared” - they don’t really “go on” anything beyond flows. They are neither students nor arbiters of value, and they are price-setters only in the very narrowest sense of the phrase. In reality they are reactive price-takers, looking simply to position their nets where the most fish are swimming. It isn’t the market makers that need to be persuaded of the increasing value of Havieron in order for the price to move upwards - it is the market (investors like you and I) itself. If the market gains confidence from (say) drilling results or MRE updates this will be reflected in buy trades and the MM’s will adjust their prices upwards to the point where equilibrium (balanced two-way flow) is restored; there they can earn their spread without having to risk any of their precious/expensive capital.

@MFU - what do you mean by "...to get the algorithms heading down"? To which algorithms do you refer?

The whole desperate/cycle-clips/burning/panic/balls in vice/marooned narrative is a fairy story. Just ignore it.

@Z:

1, Correct
2, Correct. Interesting as it’s the first real one we’ve seen though.
3. Position is disclosed as JPM AM(UK) so not part of their prop trading or proprietary book. It’s most likely client money via a fund they manage. I am on the case of narrowing down the potential candidates…
4. It’ll be the clients (in the fund holding the position)that profit or lose, not JPM themselves - v important distinction

JPM won’t “know” anything non-public re Ukraine or similar. If they did, they’d likely be taking positions in their prop book not wasting the inside info on their clients… ;>

Interesting development! This is the first disclosed short I recall seeing, but others here will know the history far better. The position is disclosed by JPM Asset Management (UK), so it is likely held within one of their UK contracted mutual funds. Not then a proprietary position held by the bank for its own book or a position within a JPM managed investment trust. JPM AM(UK) aren’t well known as equity short players (unlike, say, Jupiter) so there isn’t an obvious suspect fund / manager. We may at some point find out which fund(s) hold the position, this will depend upon the disclosure cycle of the fund(s) concerned. I will watch carefully.

It could (speculative guess for discussion only..!) be that the recent 18.1m trade at 15.1p was their opening, with subsequent trades taking them to the 20.x m requiring disclosure on 19/1/21. No-one knows, but it is tempting to link this trade with the disclosure.

@Sojourner, the initial position from Van Eck was reported as follows:

Joe Foster, a portfolio manager with New York-based VanEck, is even more bullish on Pretium. In fact, he thinks the company is being sold for too cheap a price, especially in light of the company recently making a promising new discovery that could add considerable life to the existing orebody.

“I don’t think this offer reflects the potential of the Pretium properties and the solid management,” he said. “I think you can justify a higher price.”

I’ve not seen anything definitive on their subsequent change of direction.