Member Info for StarBright

@PL75 - sorry, missed that. Definitely lower risk than prior to the trial starting! And every day that passes with the trial ongoing means that the risks reduce further. Not yet so low that the risks can be dismissed though.

@BITL - I thought about putting including “Management/execution risk” in my top 3 but decided it would be very unpopular…

I agree about the technology.

@PL75, Tempest’s undisturbed market cap was about USD3m. It added about USD125m of MCap in a day. There’s no reason that AVCT can’t do this in USD/GBP terms, but it’s very different in % terms because our undisturbed MCap is so much higher.

The idea that AVCT’s market cap could jump to USD18bn overnight is not credible.

I agree @Benharper, and that’s why I’m very happy to be invested at this level. My point is only that it is facile to propose there are no real risks.

I am very onboard and invested here, but somewhat tired of the mindless rampers that cling to this share. I don’t think that’s you @BITL, but your post implicitly questions whether there are any remaining risks and I think you know better than that…

@PL75 - do you have some examples of takeovers of quoted pharma companies (>$400m undisturbed market cap) where takeover or poison pills have spiked the price by >3000pc?

@beinthelead - does the tone of your response/question indicate that you see AVCT as practically derisked…? We need there to be risk, for without risk there is no return.

3 obvious risks for current holders of Avacta:

1. Clinical risk - the risk that Avacta’s Precision technology proves unable to clear all of the trial / regulatory hurdles still ahead of it

2. Funding risk - the risk that Avacta is unable to secure the funding necessary to resource the trial and commercialisation processes ahead of it without material dilution

3. Market/valuation risk - the risk that the market (popularly supposed to be “thick as mince” or “asleep”…) doesn’t reward Avacta with the desired valuation uplift

Are there any TRADERS here today?

https://youtu.be/pRnyfVgQbXk?si=V_WKdkQSheEFTst9

That’s a good RNS. P90 reserves up 50%. £125m - £153m of attributable pre-tax cashflow, net of financing & mandatory hedging costs which I understand are being re-negotiated.

I also like the plain no-nonsense tone of the release. Definitely an upgrade from the previous run of CEO’s….

The idea that MM’s can see your stop losses is just an LSE bulletin board fantasy. It’s right up there with “…any bid must be above the high of the last 12 months”, “…placing a high limit sell order stops your broker from lending your shares”, “…the MM’s marked my buy as a sell”, “…the MM’s can see when an RNS is logged even if they can’t read it” and all the other nonsense repeated endlessly on these boards.

Take care extrapolating from this. The USD1.8bn referenced is for six months, not a full year.

Tepezza & Krystexxa (2 of the 12 drugs in the portfolio) alone are expected to generate USD5.5bn pa in sales, so the relevant turnover multiple is less than 5x.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221031005857/en/Horizon-Therapeutics-plc-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-Increases-Full-Year-2022-Net-Sales-and-Adjusted-EBITDA-Guidance-Increases-TEPEZZA-and-KRYSTEXXA-Peak-Annual-Net-Sales-Expectations

Read this thread to see one of the reasons why institutional investors haven’t rushed to invest here in recent years. The 38p spike is still clearly the principal reference point for many PI’s, as evidenced by the frequency with which it is mentioned.

Whilst many assert they won’t be selling for less than XXp the reality is that any such choice is unlikely to be between selling out for (say) 20p and “going mining”. If - for example - the JV partner revises the mining plan such that it requires more initial CapEx than GGP can currently fund - but makes an offer for the 30% as an alternative - then existing investors may face a choice between a painfully dilutive capital raise and a sale at a level many would find eye-watering for the wrong reasons. Not saying that this is the most likely scenario, just observing that choices between favourable alternatives are rare in reality.

Sadly Avacta is one of the meme-shares that attracts obsessives. Some of the ramping on Twitter/X is truly shocking. The proponents are unqualified, untrained, unsupervised, unregulated volunteer IR agents - with apparently limitless time to invest in their “work”.

Do you remember how hard Avacta’s mist explosive tamper pushed the “Jawdrop Summit”…?

Good for her!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67028925

Not us. Not this time.

Decent shout. It was Tony Blair (with a banker called Michael Klein) who “saved” the Glencore / Xstrata deal…

I have no idea why the Chinese are reticent over coming up with the money.

Meanwhile…

https://x.com/emmanfre/status/1709115925243294167?s=61

Perhaps JOHNRAMBO will restart his “50-BAGGER WITHIN A MONTH” thread..?

No - I very much hope you are right and that a deal has been done! As I said, I hope there will be concrete news by Christmas.

@Eddsy - you are way wide of the mark. I’ve been a holder here for years, and am not in any way negative about the company’s prospects. I don’t think I can be much clearer than “If you are interested but don’t yet have a position, I think it is time to act” as I wrote in the post quoted by Veteran10. But I’m not going to apologise for the lack of LSE-stylee rockets, “booms” and “Good luck to all genuine holders” in what I contribute.

It is however my view that the those touting a takeout at 250p, 420p etc are - frankly - either deluded or looking to manipulate/influence the many inexperienced investors that frequent the LSE ‘boards.

I like the idea that ZIOC should be positioned as though it is a freshly-minted IPO. That’s a good concept. Let’s hope we can find out for real that it’s a winning idea.

Your “Why now?” points are good too. As I’ve just posted in the other thread, what we need now is multiple motivated potential buyers such that price discovery is driven by competitive tension.

I’m strapped in and holding for the ride…

@Jiving said: “ We PIs are essentially piggy backing off the private sale of a major undeveloped iron ore mine that has once been valued in the market at $2 billion.

So its highly unlikely any discussions will take place with strategic bidders on the basis of share price - 2x, 20x, whatever, but around the standard NPV based valuation for a pre-development mine with all licences & environmental studies in place & with all the key aspects of the development structure & finance being finalised.”

Agreed 100%. That’s exactly how I would look to position any potential transaction to interested bidders. I’d assert with great conviction that the current share price is entirely irrelevant ;>

Of course potential buyers - hopefully plural, for competitive tension drives price discovery - would argue the counter-case.

This is part of the spread discussed yesterday. Is there someone out there who can bring multiple motivated potential buyers to the table, with expectations that can be nurdled carefully toward a level where the seller(s) are themselves motivated to engage? What makes this more likely in the next 6-months than it has been in the last 10 years?

There are many other stories of sp growth exceeding the 1500x you saw with ASC. Amazon has >2500x'd and Apple has >5000x'd for example.

But the question here is very different. We are contemplating the acquisition premium that might be paid for ZIOC. Median acquisition premia have a long-term average of 30-50% ie buyers acquiring quoted companies pay 1.3x - 1.5x the undisturbed price. Higher premia are seen in certain sectors, notably pharma. Allergan paid a premium of over 1500% for Tobira for example.

ZIOC has traded between 5p and 10p for the last 5 years, with only a few brief excursions above and below this range. 5yr VWAP is around 7.5p. An acquisition at (say) 100p would be a 1200% premium, so an extraordinary outcome for holders.

I'd be extremely happy to be proved very wrong on this..!