Member Info for StarBright

Or just an automated process compliant with the rules on (delayed) trade reporting. Neither a human hand or any form of intelligent algorithm.

@Bella6532, the topics you often respond indicate an interest in what might be termed market operations. I can see that you recognise there are many misinformed comments on these boards; “my buy has been reported as a sell”, “evil MM’s are manipulating the price” etc. There are lots of good resources out there that can help you develop a deeper understanding of what happens “under the hood”. Have a look at these for starters:

https://www.barclays.co.uk/smart-investor/news-and-research/investing-for-beginners/the-story-of-a-trade/

https://www.shiftingshares.com/blog/

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/lse-retail.pdf

https://aim-watch.com/project/lse-auctions-explained/#:~:text=What%20are%20auctions%3F,known%20as%20the%20Call%20Period.

https://www.sharescope.co.uk/sharepad_tutorial19.jsp

Those asserting that markets are thick are self-referencing egotists. They are trying to tell you something about themselves - not about the market.

True expertise is generally accompanied by heightened self-awareness and self-doubt. Unbridled certainty on complex topics is not the hallmark of an expert, rather it is the front of bluffers suffering with acute Dunning-Kruger. Fund managers with extreme views on valuation are more likely to be asking themselves (and if they are genuinely good, asking others) what they have missed, than they are to be asserting that the market is thick.

I do enjoy the periodic countdown hype that Avacta’s self-appointed IR zealots promote so assiduously. I’ve lost count of the number of “pivotal” releases and “last chances to get onboard” in the last few years. How many sleeps is it now?

Trades this morning filled at >80p

With UK CPI printing at 4.6% and GSF yielding 10% this may have further to run.

I am mildly surprised, although index inclusion is a something of a dark art. I have expressed here previously my view that index funds - particular ETFs - are awkward passengers for a company like AVCT. Also that ETF buying/selling activity doesn’t affect share prices in the long run; the distortions it creates are ephemeral and should be disregarded by long-term investors.

Off Book refers to trades not executed through the order book, so describes all trades executed via market makers. Almost all trades in AVCT are off book as a result.

From an intraday low of 60.5p on 31/10, GSF has risen by 11.1p or 18.3%. Quite a move - albeit on meagre volume in the last week. Some busier sessions needed before a turning point can be confirmed.

The context/background for GSF is improving though, with both macro- (rates expectations) and industry (reaction to the failed auction in the UK) winds looking more helpful. The company itself *should* have some good news to bring to market in the next few months, particularly with respect to its US projects.

In the long-run it is hard to see that an investment of this nature should deliver a yield >10%, without taking a very(!) pessimistic view on US treasury yields. The current spread for what used to be called junk bonds is around 4%, vs >6% for GSF. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2

Results with potential to impact the share price will be RNS’d first.

Journals, conference posters etc can follow shortly afterwards, but the RNS has to come first in order for disclosure requirements to be met.

Price action isn’t really explained by the prints we can see. Look for late reported trades after close today, or tomorrow.

Just small punter trades printed so far though… Largest today is only £8.7k

Perhaps something bigger will show up later / tomorrow?

The aptly named dummy trades can tell you only the best fill achievable instantaneously from the RSP’s currently active on your particular platform’s panel. Not all platforms have working access to all the RSP’s - this is why we often see excited “NT to trade” posts here swiftly followed by others saying they have no problem getting quotes. Nothing to do with depth/liquidity in the underlying market, just a reflection of the differences between platforms. At best therefore an incomplete picture. Note also that screen prices are derived from RSP quotes which are ONLY firm for trades below the EMS. Other/better prices may well be available - for telephone trades for example - especially if in size>EMS.

The best way(s) to find what is actually possible are to commit your capital by (i) putting an actual order in the book using DMA or (ii) letting your broker have a limit order they can work with their full range of counterparties. Not all of the retail platforms offer these services.

In simple terms, you can’t always get what you want instantaneously. As patiently explained [care - NSFW] to this angry trader: https://youtu.be/uIhSA2b8GE8?si=hfVIEMKATtcCQNdl

@beinthelead, @Timster - In the absence of TR1s I am inclined to dismiss as wishful thinking speculation elsewhere about Mr100k, iceberg orders, BP buying ahead of a hostile bid etc. Perhaps some higher-end retail (will we see a TR1 from one of the DFMs at some point?) with larger ticket sizes has got involved though.

Pre-positioning ahead of the MSCI review feels credible. This is less of a game than it was - because the reviews are now quarterly - but still attracts a few players. It used to be the AP’s that bought in advance (with the intent of creating baskets on the cheap) but apparently this is now routinely second guessed, with other participants looking to get ahead of the AP’s. A pointless game of Russian dolls, but there you go. It’s not possible to be definitive on index re-inclusion, but MCap was £260m-ish on deletion last Nov and is close to £420m today. GBPUSD helps as well, we were still somewhat Truss’d this time last year. So yes, it could be that some desks are trying to get ready for the arrival of the world’s least price-sensitive buyers. I always say that ETF’s are difficult passengers for companies like Avacta; in the end I believe they have no lasting impact on valuation.

The constant twitter barrage from @RAH00084 and @tom_the_bomb may well have become counterproductive. @Myles_McNulty too, although he is (to be fair) richer on content and somewhat more modulated in frequency. Collectively their output just looks like another retail rampfest - which in truth it is, even if the underlying investment case here is very real.

@RAH in particular demeans himself when he trots out tired old retail ramper cliches “They want your shares” etc, and comments endlessly on trade prints and L2. Whilst he tries to throw in a smattering of picked-up terms - “shapes” was a buzzword for a while - the truth is that he parades his retail background and biases in a way that anyone with professional experience of capital markets will find irritating not endearing. Too much noise, not enough signal.

Thanks - that’s an interesting stat. Perhaps the manager did achieve some cut-through with their positive messaging (Oct 12th) about the portfolio/company being materially undervalued. It’ll be interesting to see if GSF appears on that list again for November.

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM: ZIOC), is pleased to announce that an updated investor presentation has been uploaded to the Company's website and can be accessed using the following link: https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Zanaga-Investor-Presentation-1-Nov-2023-1.pdf

The investor presentation includes further information on the Company's Feasibility Study update process with its Chinese EPC Partner, particularly highlighting the significance of this exercise being conducted to a 'feasibility study' level of accuracy, versus previous re-costing exercises which were conducted to only 'concept level' accuracy.

The Company expects to also benefit from its Chinese EPC Partner's ability to secure lower Chinese contractor pricing, as well as specialised design and construction expertise in slurry pipeline projects as well as iron ore pellet feed concentrate projects similar to the Zanaga Project.

The investor presentation also includes further information on the Company's corporate strategy (announced in September 2023) which seeks to advance key milestones and objectives through to the end of Q1 2024, including:

· Feasibility Study update - End 2023

· Hydro power partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

· Port partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

· Strategic partner initiative - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

The vast majority of holders will be well underwater, with yields (based on their own acquisition costs) below prevailing levels. Many of these will capitulate if they haven’t done so already. Sad but true.

When the likes of Rathbones start selling it’s very often a decent buy signal for value investors. I saw this so many times in my professional career.

You are right to suggest that some patience may be required, but the window of opportunity is open here. Running yield >10%, a wide discount and selling volume to lean into. For those buying below 70p this looks to be a good investment for the “speculative income” bucket of a diversified portfolio. You can clip the regular divis whilst waiting for the rates cycle to turn, for corporate activity and for the discount to narrow. Or some combination of these three.

YMMV, DYOR etc…

@infinity888, can you point to anything as the source of these rumours? Or should we just assume you’ve made them up yourself?

The answer is in my post. Markets work better when a managed framework for delayed trade reporting is operative, because size participants are more likely to trade therefore liquidity and price formation are improved.

I can explain it to you, but I can’t understand it for you.

@SpadesAspade, the trade reporting rules allow for delayed reporting of certain trades, because the existence of a delayed reporting framework is of benefit* to market participants.

How does this framework operate? The Exchange publishes data on the average daily traded volume (ADT) for each individual listed security. In GGP’s case that is somewhere around the 10m mark, which puts it in the second of four bands. Trades in this band meeting the parameters below can be flagged for delayed reporting:

>5% ADT, 60 mins delay

>15% ADT, 180 mins delay

>25% ADT, end of trading day

>50% ADT, end of next trading day

>100% ADT, end of second next trading day

>250% ADT, end of third next trading day

Not all orders are placed online and filled “at market” by the market makers. The screen prices discussed endlessly here are ONLY the prices at which online orders routed to RSP’s might be filled. Other prices may be available for larger shapes or even just different routings. There are often different prices available for telephone trades, for example. Or for limit orders, especially in size. Looking at the screen prices and the trades reported on sites like LSE/ADVFN is like peering into a house through a narrow letterbox - you only have a restricted view, there are many rooms you can’t see. As a result you can’t use the L2 and live trade report data on sites like this to form a rounded picture of market depth and price formation. It is naive to describe everything not immediately visible through your letterbox as “manipulation”.

*Numerous academic studies have demonstrated that carefully controlled delayed trade reporting is beneficial for market participants - principally because it makes it easier to trade shapes in size. Here’s a recent example,

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fut.22334 , the conclusion of which is “…while reporting delays increase the time taken to release information to the market by the length of the reporting delay, thereby prima facie reducing information efficiency, such delays encourage informed trading and potentially increase the informativeness of trading and, therefore, information efficiency.”

That info is in the RNS: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GSF/holdings-in-company-3uukey6li2fwals.html