Member Info for StarBright

>200 trades filled today, but only a handful >£10k. Plenty of penny-punter bargains… No serious money on the dancefloor yet, although I guess we should wait to see if any late prints.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/earlofaim/

Just a clueless ramper who seems to appear on every board where there’s a material price movement. Like JOHNRAMBO but with less content and fewer capitals…

@Ex - more flippant than cryptic. I expect we’ll be blessed with his presence shortly.

In the real world, the news today does look promising. Holders need only continue to hold.

Wake me up when TheEarlofAim starts posting here…

Yes. Not sure who for though..!

My initial reaction is that this is very complex. No mention of equity, which - on the face of it - is good for long suffering holders. Funding for another well also a positive. Not sure I like the cash sweep though.

Hopefully the company will produce an explainer of some sort, with some illustrations of the impacts for holders. Until then I would be VERY sceptical of anyone posting here claiming to have unpicked and understood how this will work, regardless of whether they have a positive or negative conclusion.

May I play DevAd and ask a question..?

The scenarios outlined all read like they are driven by finding a route to riches for existing ZIOC shareholders, whilst also funding the mine. NOT making ZIOC shareholders rich would materially reduce the capital required by any strategic investor.

What are the scenarios in which the mine is funded, but ZIOC shareholders miss out?

As investors It is good to look at all possibilities.

That this has been priced at an undiscounted historic NAV suggests Nidec made the running. Had it been GSF looking for cash I’m sure they’d have had to give a little. I think it’s an interesting development.

“The Company is pleased to announce that, as part of the long-term strategic partnership with Nidec, Nidec will be subscribing for 14,000,000 new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company (the "Ordinary Shares") at 112.9 pence per Ordinary Share, being the 30 September 2023 NAV announced on 14 December 2023, resulting in gross proceeds of £15,806,000 to the Company.”

Nice!

Thank you @BuenaVista.

Some childlike responses to this yesterday evening.

Good with me @jive_turkey - I'm not putting my name against the figures I used in the illustration, just showing how individually high probabilities can combine. I agree with your point on correlation, and am interested by the probabilities you propose.

I do agree with the general point made earlier in the thread that those proposing CoS-based models should have the intellectual honesty to upgrade their assumptions when demonstrable progress is made, or to discuss/justify why they haven't.

Everyone should remember that Trinity are comms/marketing experts, retained/instructed by Avacta and paid to produce content intended to help private investors better understand the company. If your assessment of the chance of commercial success is higher than their 10%, you can adapt their workings accordingly...

By way of illustration, using only the few hurdles I suggested in my earlier complete list. Let's say:

- 70% prob all remaining trial hurdles cleared (= Clinicas CoS)

- 80% prob all necessary regulatory approvals are obtained

- 80% prob at scale production is possible

- 80% prob at scale production and distribution can be funded & built

- 80% prob no better alternatives are developed elsewhere

- 80% prob that there is broad adoption

- 70% prob AVCT secures financing through all pre-revenue activities

- 80% prob realised pricing will be favourable

Now combine the probabilities:

0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8 = 0.13, or 13%

The illustrative point is that whilst we may apply high probabilities to clearing each the of the individual hurdles, ultimate success requires ALL of them to be cleared. It's hard - and that is precisely why the rewards (in terms of profitability and valuation) for the very few pharma businesses that succeed are so high.

Many posters like to use Seagen as an analogy for Avacta. At the point of acquisition Seagen had already cleared ALL of the similar hurdles to those above. It was in production with forecast revenues of USD2.3bn for 2023 - the current year. As such it was able to command a huge (4.3x) multiple to forecast peak revenues. As an acquisition candidate it was hugely de-risked compared to where Avacta is today. If Avacta can demonstrate that it can clear the hurdles ahead, its equity holders might be rewarded with a similar valuation.

At the risk of stating the obvious. Chance of Success (CoS) in financial modelling terms is not 100% if “It works” in clinical terms.

From a financial modelling perspective CoS should be interpreted as Chance of Commercial Success. It would incorporate a bundled assessment of at least the following additional probabilities (inter alia):

- all remaining trial hurdles are cleared

- all necessary regulatory approvals are obtained

- at scale production is possible

- at scale production and distribution can be funded & built

- no better alternatives are developed elsewhere

- that there is broad adoption among the medical community

- the company can attract adequate financing through all pre-revenue activities

- realised pricing will be favourable

Etc etc etc

That the compound “works” in the limited testing conducted so far is great news. But there is still huge uncertainty over whether Avacta can take it all the way through to commercialisation. They have not yet demonstrated the institutional capability to succeed.

Investors shouldn’t jump from “It works” to thinking that there is yet a high CoS in commercial terms.

Look at the sheer volume of small trades going through.

Lots of inexperienced private investors bought in on hype, expecting to make a quick profit. This hasn’t materialised so they are selling out to move onto the next story share, in the hope they can make back the money they’ve lost before they have to tell their wives/husbands. Look at the sheer volume of small (

I know I’m repeating myself here, but surely no-one is truly surprised by price action today. This was perilously pregnant with hot punter money on the back of the extraordinary TwiX rampathon driven by the four mountebanks. As pointed out earlier, when the immediate +25% didn’t happen the owners of that money collectively wet the bed and ran for the hills. Precisely the opposite of the stampede Rawhide00084 and co were aiming for…

But tomorrow will be a general risk-on day following JPow’s damascene conversion tonight. If you’re tempted to add, a modest limit order at open might be the best option…

Over a thousand hopeful PI’s signed into the presentation. Over a thousand trades of less than £10k.

Not hard to interpret.

For the volatility, thank the TwiX pumpers who once again managed to get this pregnant with get-rich-quick punter money. In a way it is a testament to the effectiveness of turbo-spamming optimistic magic-calculator hopium at a naive audience. All those here who so readily defend them as harmless have contributed too.

As regards the SP movement, no-one yet has a full picture of what has changed hands or is about to change hands. It is simply too early to conclude. One thing is for certain though, if PI’s keep up the flow of small sells the MM’s will just keep dropping the price. Why should they do otherwise?

Let’s all hope there are size buyers (real ones this time) interested enough to take the other side of the trade in time.

@DTW last you week you told us: "We have been told that we are now entering the 'commercial phase' and assuming the results are as we expect and fully QC'd, I for one am expecting to hear plans on how they are going to address the SP which continues to languish at prices similar to where it was when the trial began. We've waited long enough and now I feel is time for the Co to reward our patience and tell us what they are planning to do to commercialise their work and hence boost the SP, no woolly generalisations, some clear plans would be great."

Are you really sure that the RNS/Presentation today "...has given us LTH's everything we could've hoped/wished for"....?

This is one of those paid-for investor relations content pieces, produced in conjunction with the company so should not be viewed as independent research.

Leaving the disclaimer aside, the principal conclusion is:

"Drug valuations are highly sensitive to the successful transition between testing phases and into commercialisation, given the high rate of failure. However, should AVA6000 commence commercial sales in 2026/27, we calculate a risked current value for AVA6000 at this stage of testing of 106p/share rising to 217p/share on transition to Phase 2. "

Interesting / clear response from AS on retaining AVA6000 through phase 2, but opening the possibility of licensing deals for other indications.

If I misheard, please correct as appropriate.