Member Info for StarBright

Going concern status likely a requirement of the underlying licence(s). Better safe than sorry where such a valuable asset is concerned.

@Max111 - 22nd June re funding: ”Total = US$4.92 million. Since then only a round of drilling at Elizabeth Hill and Sirius. So plenty of cash.”

@Max111 today: “Funding issue sorted”

“The unrealised profit during the period of account on the derivative instrument reduces the future liability on this gas derivative instrument on our balance sheet from £158.7 million as a t 30 September 2022 to £37.5 million as at 31 March 2023. This reduction is derived from the gas price movements during the period and was in part responsible for the significant profit for the period of £115.298 million. This figure included a gain of£109.668 million for the derivative instrument and operating profits of £6.486 million (2022: loss of £1.238 million). The Group recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of£6.290 million (2022: cash outflow of £3.614 million).”

As expected…

Perhaps more important, net cashflow generation of £6.3m

Holders need only hold. This one will come good.

Another one of these paid-for products that looks like a broker research note but isn't...

Contains some interesting comments on potential valuation - albeit within a wide range.

I can't link to the source I have, but someone will find and post a copy I'm sure.

I suspect that GST will jump sharply on any good news. There's clearly lots of PI interest, and FOMO will be strong. Such a rise can happen regardless of underlying valuation questions.

It's a Dutch auction at present - dare you wait for the price to fall a little further, or is now the time to take a position..? If you enjoy trading sentiment-driven shares this is probably as good an opportunity as any other. Not one to throw the kitchen sink at though!

Not sure about that. Both are obvious book-talkers/influencers making occasional basic mistakes easily recognisable to anyone with professional capital markets experience though.

@flava - if “MM’s loading up” were true, wouldn’t it be “SELLS coming in thick and fast”…?

Hence my “ “…!

With GLEN forecast to generate c. $10bn pa, a realisation event here could be material to them. Certainly to whoever within GLEN looks after whichever book of inherited assets ZIOC sits in.

Interesting.

Thank you - this is the piece I was missing / had forgotten during the “bottom-drawer years”, which are now hopefully coming to an end. GLEN acquired their 50%+1 share when they “merged” with Xstrata. All clear now - thanks.

“Zug and London, 8 February 2011

Xstrata plc (“Xstrata”) and Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited (“ZIOC”), are pleased to announce that Xstrata has elected to exercise its call option over Jumelles Limited (“Jumelles”). Jumelles is presently a subsidiary of AIM listed ZIOC, and through its subsidiary MPD Congo owns the Zanaga iron ore project in the Republic of Congo.

As provided for in the call option agreement entered into by Jumelles and Xstrata, Xstrata will acquire a 50% plus one share interest in Jumelles in return for a commitment to fund a Feasibility Study to a minimum of $100 million. Upon exercise, Xstrata will commence work on the Feasibility Study, the first part of which will be a value engineering exercise, building on the pre-feasibility work undertaken by Jumelles. Following the exercise of the Call Option, Xstrata will control ZIOC's sole mineral asset, the Zanaga Project, and ZIOC will have a strategic partnership in respect of the Zanaga Project with Xstrata, a major mining company.

Following the exercise of the Call Option, which is expected to complete on Friday 11 February 2011, the principal business of ZIOC will comprise managing its 50% less one share interest in the Zanaga Project, which will be controlled by Xstrata at both a shareholder and director level, and monitoring both the finalisation of the pre feasibility study ("PFS") and the preparation of the Feasibility Study.

…”

https://www.glencore.com/dam/jcr:391af167-1f14-4ac1-a710-9a6b59a5929f/201102080731.en.pdf

Thank you @marcusg71. I didn’t ask the right question (my bad, sorry). What I was after was some explanation of how GLEN came to be involved originally, ie in the company called Jumelles?

Essentially, what have they done to be sitting on 50% of this?

How and when did GLEN acquire their 286m shares? Could one of our resident experts summarise?

Perhaps he’s doing some profile building for his new venture, ahead of it becoming his sole focus..?

I can answer @ShrewdDude67’s question “…when the results are announced, if Zioc is under an NDA are they obliged to inform the market that they are under NDA?”

The answer is no, the results announcement doesn’t create disclosure obligations with respect to any NDA’s. In fact it is typical for NDA’s to contain a clause stating that their very existence cannot be disclosed. Those covered by such an NDA will have been told if they are in possession of material inside information, and will be unable to deal (legally) as a result.

Whilst I’m enthralled by the FlightRadar tracking story (with its juicy tidbits about the world’s most luxurious private jet etc) I’m far less persuaded that the Saudi’s + GLEN are going to deliver “life-changing gains” to speculative minority shareholders in the UK. That said, I’ve sat on a few shares here for years and will be delighted to be proved wrong..!

Well done @ShrewdDude67. Nearly called “house” on my LSE cliche bingo card from just your post alone!

Price action suggests we should expect a few late prints today/tomorrow.

If the share price of GGP is so easy to manipulate, isn’t it surprising that there aren’t holders among the 100.5% of long positions that are looking to manipulate the price upwards? Surely the much-discussed “laddering” concept would work even better (as no borrowing costs) for long holders than for shorts?

It just seems surprising that no-one has tried it when it’s so easy to do, and so many would benefit.

“What am I missing?”

On 30/11/22 the spot price of UK natural gas was 368 GBp/thm. Today it is 62 GBp/thm

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas says:

UK natural gas futures continued to fall to below 56 pence a therm, a level not seen since April of 2021 and down more than 90% from a peak of 640 pence in August last year, prompted by low demand and ample supplies. Wind power overtook gas to become the UK’s main source of electricity in the first quarter of 2023, with 32.4% of the UK’s electricity coming from wind farms, compared with 31.7% from natural gas-fired power plants, Imperial College London said. At the same time, the supply of liquefied natural gas is expected to remain stable, while export demand from Europe is anticipated to weaken. Moreover, the UK's National Gas Transmission projects a decline in natural gas demand to 33.25 billion cubic meters during the summer, compared to 42.08 billion cubic meters in the same period of 2022. Still, all eyes are now on the summer weather, as another extreme heat wave and drought could boost demand and put some upward pressure on the prices.

There is always selling. People reach into their savings/investments to raise money to pay for ordinary stuff from time to time, not to mention to cover unexpected bills. And they make decisions to reallocate funds from one investment to others. This is very ordinary!

By way of illustration, investment funds typically have what is referred to as a “gross redemption rate” of around 15-20% - if you run a £1bn fund then you will see £150-£200m of gross redemptions pa. You have to generate a similar level of gross sales just to stand still in AuM terms. For shares, the impact of flows shows in the share price with stable price action when buy- and sell- volumes are matched. This is the equilibrium level that market-makers seek as it enables them to pocket the spread on transactions without having to risk their expensive/constrained capital.

The recent weakness in GGP’s share price is likely best explained by the hesitancy of buyers, deterred by lingering uncertainties including the possibility of a raise. If buys dry up but the natural level of sells continues, then the equilibrium price will move down until potential buyers are tempted to set aside their hesitation and place orders. In the long run the market is an efficient pricing/valuation mechanism - I always say that price is the ultimate truth! - but in the short run, its efficacy can be dented by flow imbalances.

Posts here on LSE about prices being “walked down”, “taken up”, “controlled by/for shorters” should be viewed as expressions of exasperation only. Instances of deliberate market manipulation over extended periods are VANISHINGLY rare. Market structures and participant business models simply do not require underhand/illegal actions for players to profit.

The GGP PI community has an enduring fascination with the idea that “shorters” are disproportionately able to impact price action. Elaborate theories of laddering and shorting-to-buy are common currency. But this is nonsense - the 99.5% (or whatever) of long investors are the overwhelming determinants of price action; look to their activities when trying to understand the tape.

If and when GGP is able to clear up some of the uncertainties that have become visible then buyers will return. If the company is able to set out a strong narrative providing better context to the restructuring, re-listing and capital raising that it has indicated are under consideration then buyers will return. With such a groundswell of support from loyal “well-researched” retail investors, it is entirely possible that the recent SP falls might be reversed in the course of a few sessions.