Member Info for StarBright

I did. As I said when I posted, an incautious trade that now sits at a loss to remind me of my mistake. I should have known better given my background.

But I didn’t devote post after breathless post here to roaring on the SP and sucked-in new investors while the heist was taking place. I haven’t spent the last couple of days coming up with more and more far-fetched explanations as to why the price dropping is a good thing and investors should hold if not buy more.

Readers of this board will form their own conclusions.

I think you are looking in the wrong place (or more accurately at the wrong point in time) for skulduggery.

The PI’s who have been posting here about their losses (and they will be the tip of the iceberg) were actually mugged last week while the price was rising. Their pockets were picked by experts operating under cover of the noise made by the well-intentioned crowd here and elsewhere. It’s just that they’ve only arrived home and discovered their wallets are missing today. The evidence is the sheer volume of shares traded Wed/Thu/Fri last week, about 1/3rd of the shares in issue changed hands mostly at 2p+. This was the point at which new investors wealth was re-purposed.

The price has fallen not because of elaborate chicanery by MM’s and hungry (if unseen) II’s hell bent on securing material stakes at bargain prices. It has fallen because there are many more sellers than buyers at 2p and above. Possibly at 1p and above - we don’t know yet.

I do not expect the promised TR1’s to appear. If any do, they will likely be for sales not purchases. I will be happy to be proved wrong!

Nothing new to see here...

100% agreed Phoebus. The sector as a whole may benefit from a tailwind for while.

Or just place a limit order at the price you’re willing to pay and wait to see if it gets filled.

This is not as complicated / difficult / trap-riddled as many wish to make out.

Some trades will be reported late(r). This is 100% normal. It is within the regulatory framework.

Why do you see it as “games being played”?

And how is it affecting you?

I suspect that buying and commissioning high-volume LFT production equipment is not as straightforward as it sounds. This is highly specialist machinery for which there are few suppliers and limited manufacturing capacity. It’s also not like buying a toaster, unboxing it and plugging it in. It may be that lead times are long.

Here's a fuller explanation: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html

The relevant para says:

"When an investor buys or sells stock from/to a market maker, the transaction is reported to the stock exchange. Each transaction is, of course, both buy and sell. You are the buyer or seller, and the market maker is the other party in the transaction. However, only one trade report is required. The transaction reports are published by the stock exchange with a trade type of O, and services such as ADVFN,iii and MoneyAM, who have a "feed" of information from the exchange, will list the transactions on their Monitor/Watchlist and Trades pages. Some years back, all the online services thought it would be a good idea to attempt to list these transactions as buys or sells, and devised a guesstimate system - if a transaction is executed at a price above the mid-price, it is placed into the buy column. If executed below the mid-price it is placed in the sell column.

Now, unless trading is intense and prices moving rapidly, these buy/sell columns are fairly accurate, and represent a reasonable estimate of the amount of buying/selling BY investors FROM/TO the market makers. "

neilmc83 - trades are reported by market participants only as trades, without being tagged as buys or sells. Sites like ADVFN have processes that compare trade prices to the quoted bid and offer at the time of the trade. If the trade is price is above the mid-, ADVFN show it as a BUY. If it below the mid-, they show it as a sell. These are only indications, and are frequently incorrect as you have seen. No-one sitting on the MM's desk is touching this process.

The good news is that if your buy was reported as a sell it indicates that you bought at a price that was toward the bottom of the quoted spread at the point you dealt. That is - you got a good deal!

I don't have a short (Does anyone? I'd be surprised if there is any borrow here), and I'm not looking to add to my holding. I have said nothing negative about the company.

I have commented on recent price action. As evidenced in this very thread the turnover in the last week or so has seen an influx of new investors, most of whom will have averages above 2p. They may do well from this position - I hope so.

But the board has today has been full of people making outlandish claims about buys reported as sells, II's building stakes through off-market purchases, MM's wanting your shares etc etc etc. The posters tell us that the falling share price should be seen as good news by investors! New investors MUST hold, or buy more etc etc etc. These posts are a blatant attempt to influence the inexperienced, presumably for the posters own benefit.

The simpler explanation for an SP that has gone +340% in a few days followed by -31% is that we have a spike in progress and there is plenty of room for further falls given the heights reached late last week.

New investors should treat outlandish "technical" explanations for the falling share price with caution, especially when those explanations are accompanied by instructions as to what they should do. Simpler explanations (eg SP is falling because there are more sellers than buyers now the spike has run out of fuel) are more likely to be correct.

That is all.

Max - I’m more of an anti-ramper than a deramper. In particular I object to posts/posters on BB’s who are clearly looking to influence rather than to discuss. There have been plenty of those in the last few days, exhorting newbies to follow their bidding.

As I said, I added to my holding last week as I thought we were off to the races. But I did so in (for me) rather a hasty way. It doesn’t look like a good trade given what has happened since. I suspect that what we’ve seen in the last few days has just been a simple AIM spike and we may have further to fall as ST traders who bought on price action and BB hype are rinsed through. Volumes on the 3 days with big rises last week were 10x those of the preceding period, with close to 1/3rd the company’s shares traded. So I suspect we have a lot of new PI’s on board with averages close to 2p. They are the ones who I suggested should watch out below.

I’m in for the ride and waiting to see what news the company shares during the coming months.

I’ve held a position here for a while, mainly on the basis that the company has a few interesting opportunities in a sector that will enjoy tailwinds at some point. I added 20% to my holding late last week when the price was roughly where it closed today. I suspect that wasn’t a great decision as the last few days have all the characteristics of a common or garden AIM spike. Some of the ramping over the last week or so has been frankly embarrassing, with todays cacophony of “all sells are buys” etc a case in point. The more logical explanation for the LIS trades is grateful LT holders unloading their bottom drawers into the spike. Some of them will be thrilled to be getting anywhere over 1p having had their heads held underwater for a few years....

I will - of course - be delighted to be proved wrong when the promised flurry of TR1’s arrives late this week. But in all honesty it’s not that likely is it?

For holders from before the spike I think the truth is that little has changed, and the rationale for holding on is still in place. But those who bought on price action last week should watch out below.

A vast amount of energy is being expended on this board telling people that there are big hidden buys, that sells are buys, that the price drop is because of order filling etc. Interesting...

I think that JAdam is essentially correct. ODX don't yet have the paperwork / contract for an order as such. If they make a release saying anything different they run the risks associated with misrepresenting their position. I don't think it is simply that they are not required to release this information, rather that they can't represent publicly that they are party to a £75m contract because that is not what the paperwork says. There may be many reasons for this.

Good work! And thank you for sharing.

Yes - that’s what I heard. I think the LFT production equipment manufacturers (ODX appears to work with one from Finland) will have hugely strong hands here. Limitless demand and pricing as hard as you like. I hope Omega have got in there quickly enough and not tried too hard on price etc. Sometimes it is better just to pay up and secure positive engagement!

@Oilyali: “And he was hoping to procure that massive increase in capacity by end of October, so possibly in time for the 28th October.”

Please don’t misrepresent what he said, it’s not helpful. He said he was looking at possible plans for increasing capacity and hoped then to make procurement decisions as early as possible.

@AndyH101 - “Does anybody no wot the PE ratio is here?“

Hi Andy. The PE Ratio is sumfink to do with wiv the profits wot the company is making and the earnings we is all looking for. Try Fool.com: https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/the-relationship-between-pe-ratio-and-stock-price.aspx

@AndyH101 ‘ “This stock has a PE ratio of 126 guys lol“

And yet there you were breathlessly telling us you’d bought 10k a couple of weeks ago when the price was basically the same. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that others are operating at your intellectual level...!

@Trader212, do you understand why you can’t compare share prices..?

https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:497590-2020:TEXT:EN:HTML

Contract award notice

Results of the procurement procedure

Supplies

Legal Basis:
Directive 2014/24/EU
Section I: Contracting authority

I.1)
Name and addresses
Official name: Department of Health and Social Care
Postal address: 39 Victoria Street
Town: London
NUTS code: UKI32 Westminster
Postal code: SW1H 0EU
Country: United Kingdom
E-mail: procurement.operations@dhsc.gov.uk
Internet address(es):
Main address: https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-health-and-social-care
Address of the buyer profile: https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-health-and-social-care
I.4)
Type of the contracting authority
Ministry or any other national or federal authority, including their regional or local subdivisions
I.5)
Main activity
Health
Section II: Object

II.1)
Scope of the procurement
II.1.1)
Title:
Provision of Lateral Flow Test Kits

II.1.2)
Main CPV code
33124130 Diagnostic supplies
II.1.3)
Type of contract
Supplies
II.1.4)
Short description:
Provision of lateral flow test kits for Covid-19 for use as part of the UK Covid-19 Testing strategy in support of Pillar 3 – antibody testing.

II.1.6)
Information about lots
This contract is divided into lots: no
II.1.7)
Total value of the procurement (excluding VAT)
Value excluding VAT: 75 000 000.00 GBP

.... .... ....

Section V: Award of contract

A contract/lot is awarded: yes
V.2)
Award of contract
V.2.1)
Date of conclusion of the contract:
14/08/2020
V.2.2)
Information about tenders
Number of tenders received: 1
The contract has been awarded to a group of economic operators: no
V.2.3)
Name and address of the contractor
Official name: Abingdon Health Ltd
National registration number: 06475379
Postal address: York Biotech Campus, Sand Hutton
Town: York
NUTS code: UK UNITED KINGDOM
Postal code: YO41 1LZ
Country: United Kingdom
Internet address: https://www.abingdonhealth.com/
The contractor is an SME: yes
V.2.4)
Information on value of the contract/lot (excluding VAT)
Total value of the contract/lot: 75 000 000.00 GBP
V.2.5)
Information about subcontracting
The contract is likely to be subcontracted
Value or proportion likely to be subcontracted to third parties
Value excluding VAT: 33 000 000.00 GBP
Proportion: 44 %
Short description of the part of the contract to be subcontracted:
A significant proportion of manufacturing and all of packing.