Member Info for StarBright

The short term selling pressure here is obvious, despite all the "to the moon" posts and endless far-fetched discussion of huge buy orders in the background. It's not possible to tell whether this pressure is coming from the warrant holders, or simply from those who acquired shares at lower levels during the period in the summer when volume started to tick up. Some evidently view the recent spike as a decent level to exit, having multi-bagged. There's nothing wrong with this, although there isn't now enough volume for them to sell into and the price drops sharply when they try. So they are like the monkey holding a fistful of nuts in a bottle - they can get their hand out but only by dropping some of the nuts. It's not hard to spot the posters here who have positions to sell . They want you to buy THEIR shares at or around 2p so they can get as many nuts out as possible!

Underneath all of this is an interesting company with a portfolio of assets that will likely contain some winners, and a reinvigorated management team motivated to create value. This is probably a good time to invest in micro-cap resources companies, as the sector is likely to see tailwinds over the next year. Holding for longer term gains on news is therefore a valid strategy, although presently in conflict with those holding on to their nuts but eyeing the exit...

The FORWARD PE ratio is the important one. These are transformational times for diagnostics companies.

Anyone posting about the historic PE is either thick or mischievous. Or both.

Sometimes you have to look at why investors DON’T own/like a company. Omega is widely seen as an antibody play, and many believe (incorrectly, but never mind...) that antigen is the way to go.

Omega will have both, this neutralising the risk of being stranded on the wrong side of the testing divide should one emerge.

This is a major plus point for investors seeking general exposure to the economics of testing.

The best of the testing plays.

Antigen testing will be the catalyst for new investors to commit their capital in the manner required for the shares to re-rate. Take a look on the “other” testing company boards; the common dismissal of Omega is that antibody tests have no value as they don’t tell you if you have the virus today.

The debate between the usefulness of antibody and antigen testing will continue. A company that has exposure to both is a winning proposition.

When Omega is understood to have antigen testing as well, then I expect to see the relative attractiveness of its shares re-appraised.

The RNS today is a good step towards that, and I am looking forward to the presentation later.

All looks good to me.

Capacity increase progressing in line with the plans the company has set out. Some insight into their thinking on how this capacity will be utilised.

For me the key is the comments on Antigen testing. The company indicates good progress is being made by Mologic, and that technical transfer could be underway as early as the end of November. That would be fantastic news.

All in all a calm and positive message for investors. Well done Omega!

I agree.

The last few Omega trading updates have been released as 7am RNS's. As the company has booked a live presentation for 4:30pm, do we think we'll get an RNS "trading update" release after hours? Or do you think the company will go ahead with a 7am RNS in their usual way, with the presentation to provide colour etc later in the day?

If the latter we could see a volatile day tomorrow.

A presentation only won't allow the company to discharge its regulatory obligations if there is material new news to impart, so I think we'll get an RNS. I'm not sure when though.

Thoughts?

“Here Here!”

There’s no place for homophones on this board ;)

In simple terms MIFID requires market participants to disclose details of trades immediately after execution. However there are “waivers” to this obligation, including one which allows the reporting of certain LIS (large in scale) trades to be delayed until the close of trading. In large part this is intended to ensure orderly markets, buy protecting retail investors from sudden price movements caused by block trades between institutions. It is also intended to increase the depth of liquidity, something which benefits all investors when we want to trade. The waiver (eg the decision to delay reporting) is invoked by the trade participants at the point of order entry/execution if the necessary requirements are met. It’s simply not the case that market makers sit there hiding trades to disadvantage retail investors, despite this being suggested every day on the LSE discussion boards..!

Fredd1eboy - I can’t see any evidence that market participants are acting outside of the parameters defined by regulation, can you? Do you think you understand properly the purpose/intent of the LIS reporting waiver? Is it possible that your understanding of this aspect (post trade reporting) of the regulatory framework is incomplete?

Agreed DGR1980. The decision taken to follow this route for funding indicates that it was considered a better option than a general dilution. I can see how that might be possible. It’s an interesting model.

Of course dilution can take different forms. UFO shareholders will only have an interest in 20% of any value generated by Donovan 2 following completion of the Capstone earn-in. Prior to the earn-in agreement we have 100%. So we are effectively diluted 4:1 on that project.

The alternative would have been a dilutive placing to raise the $4m (or whatever) required for the Prefeasibility study, whilst retaining 100% of any value generated. No dilution in asset ownership, but more shares in issue.

Diluting the asset or diluting the ownership have the same effect for shareholders in the end. Both can be valid ways for thinly-capitalised companies to fund projects, and both can be value accretive. It would be interesting to understand why one route was preferred to the other, especially as the company appears to be signalling intent to explore similar deals for some of its other assets.

These seem to be a bit of an obsession! I guess they are a FOMO manifestation...

We should all understand that there are many many companies globally working on COVID tests. The virus is not going to go away any time soon, if at all. All sorts of test - antigen/antibody/t-cell(?)/whatever are going to be required for use in all sorts of settings. Demand for reliable tests produced in volume will be essentially limitless.

Don’t worry about “Is it us?” every time you read about COVID testing!

AIM / UK market structure and regulatory framework is different though.

100%.

There is some good information to be found here, and some well-informed and helpful posters.

But also the very worst side of the LSE bulletin boards. Multi-account posters ramping cynically to suck in newbies and their capital. The last 10 days have seen a big spike (I don’t know whether initiated naturally...) that was fuelled and flogged to within an inch of its life. The number of new posters/holders reporting entry prices of 2.5p and above tells how effective the ramping operation has been. It’s pretty distasteful to observe, even if it is a fact of life in micro-cap resource plays.

Underneath all of this is an interesting company, with some real opportunities and what appears to be decent/reinvigorated management. This sector as a whole may enjoy tail winds during the next year or two. These tail winds will benefit the smaller lighter boats more than they will the heavy ships. Alien could be one of the winners, so is worth holding in modest size. Don’t bet the ranch on this, and don’t expect rapid gains. Ignore the breathless rubbish posted here about L2, MM’s, shorts etc and pay little attention to charts. This share will be driven by news for the foreseeable future. All to play for, even for those who entered for a quick trade and now find themselves long-term investors..!

The idea that there is a big short position on UFO doesn’t stand even cursory scrutiny. No short positions have been disclosed. The shares aren’t remotely borrowable - too volatile, Mcap too low to make it worthwhile, no obvious lending candidates etc.

It’s a fantasy, and can be safely disregarded.

@mEM - “I buy on EVERY DIP”

What do you mean by this? That you buy every time the SP dips below a certain level (30p?) or that you buy shortly after any new high? Or that you buy every time there’s a retracement of more than x%?

I’m happy to leave it there.

I think you are right that this is a good time to be invested in companies like UFO. Some of them will create value from legacy projects as the world changes. Let’s hope this is one of the winners in the long run.

I believe you when you say you are a long-term investor. And I believe that you are well-intentioned.

The traders were here last week. All your breathless posts about 8p targets, “last chance to board the train”, “to da moon”, “going parabolic immediately, hold tight astronauts”, “ whoever fell off the bull needs to jump back on quick or will be left behind“ etc may have helped them complete their heist by sucking in new investors to fuel the spike they were selling into.

Whether it was your intention or not, you helped promote this share to newbies at exactly the same point the sharks were in the water. Those who listened won’t thank you.

Max - people can look at your UFO post history, which contains plenty of good stuff but WAY too much ramping and exhortations to investors. They can also look at my few posts on UFO which started with me admitting to getting suckered in to adding whilst the ramp was on last week, and progressed through me raising my eyebrows about the rubbish being posted about order filling, late trades and TR1’s.

I’m still invested and I hope we can both do well from UFO in the future. But give the ramping a rest will you?