Member Info for StarBright

Did someone say Finland...?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5icxR0taQg

Hold.

And for ODX sp to match NCYT, market cap would have to be £1.15bn

Guess who transposed ODX market cap 167m with shares in issue 179m....?

Sorry!

If ODX market cap matched NCYT, ODX sp would be £2.45

NCYT market cap is £440m vs ODX £167m.

If ODX market cap matched NCYT, ODX sp would be £2.63

For ODX sp to match NCYT, market cap would have to be £1.07bn

You can make up your own mind on the probability of each.

100% agreed Barniac.

My biggest fear is that the opportunity is too large for a small firm like Omega. Too large both in terms of the challenge of building scale at speed, and too large (frankly) in terms of the responsibility that is being afforded to a small firm. If our government really do want tens of millions of these tests they may prefer to be in bed with a household name firm with proven mega-scale production expertise. I guess I am worrying that the importance of these tests has grown exponentially(!) since the formation of the RTC.

But...... my fears are also my hopes. If tens of millions of these tests are needed and Omega retains the box seat then the rewards for the firm and its stakeholders will be massive. This is the very essence of equity investment! The capital raised in the placing is being used to fund the building of production capacity. If the production facilities built work properly, and can be run at scale, the providers of the capital will be rewarded handsomely. But we should all understand that the potential for out-scale returns reflects the reality that this is far from a de-risked situation.

My view is that the returns on the table are worth the risk required at this point, so I am happy to be a holder and excited about the coming weeks and months. My eyes are wide open though.

10k buy @79p was a limit order placed in advance of the presentation in the hope (rather than expectation) that it might get filled...

Symbo1 - I think you have that the wrong way around...

MM's were SELLING shares this morning (at the higher prices) so likely running an intra-day short in the expectation that they could exploit presentation anxiety to shake a few holders out and square their books by BUYING them back at the lower price this afternoon.

Yes / agreed. That's without COVID - see my earlier post saying that purchasers at 90p are effectively getting the COVID earnings exposure for free.

Calculation above is only in response to sensetalka's post suggesting the non-COVID earnings may be worth £9/share.

sensetalka not a senseposter....

Back of an envelope using figures from presentation today:

Revenues 90m
Margin 60%
PBT 54m
CT 10m
Earnings 44m
Mcap at 10x (your suggestion not mine!) = 440m
Shares in issue 180m
SP thus £2.44

Not £9....

Safy - he said maybe before Christmas, but perhaps not until the New Year. The difference is academic.

80-100 million a year (was that USD not GBP though...?) in revenues. 60% margin.

If delivered (even in USD) that's £36m pa profit pre tax. That is enough to underpin the current market cap.

So buyers at 90p are getting exposure to the COVID-19 testing opportunities for free.

This is probably the rampiest post I have ever written - check my history...

I did. Limit orders for 10k at 89, 10k at 79. Both filled. V pleased...

Every day you see posts here about non-existent tree shakes - every time the price takes a tick down. Those are NOT tree shakes, this was. The way to play tree shakes is not to cancel stop losses, but to set limit buy orders at speculative price points in the hope they are filled....

Presenter/host sounds like Jasper Carrot...

I’m predicting the return of a certain notorious albeit easily misread poster on Monday morning. I’ll post in this thread again when he re-appears..!

I think the big question is to what extent the anticipated news is already priced-in.

It's clear from this board that there is little opposition to PI's belief that approvals and orders will be RNS'd soon. That can indicate that a fair amount of the upside is already in the price. I don't buy the idea that there is a wall of money sat on the sideline waiting for a relevant RNS; the market just doesn't work like that. This is a well known story.

I will be very happy to be proved wrong though!

Good spot TWatcher.

Odd that they chose to release it today then given that they have a perfect opportunity to cover it at the presentation on Monday. It's not as though the SP is under any pressure! I guess it's a positive story and RNS'ing may bring it to the attention of a few who might otherwise have missed it.

I suspect they've received a (late) opinion that the Ulster Uni publication constitutes price sensitive material so has to be RNS'd. That's fine.

Yes - although it is normal to release bad news on Friday afternoons and good news on Monday mornings..!

For those wondering why the presentation setup /invite states "No new price-sensitive information is disclosed as part of the presentation", this is entirely normal and not something to be surprised or disappointed about.

The AIM rules state:

"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance."

An AIM company must retain a Regulatory Information Service provider to ensure that information can be notified as and when required. If an approved RIS is used, the company is deemed to have met its disclosure requirements.

The rules effectively require any market sensitive information to be disclosed via an RNS. This ensures that all shareholders have equal access to such information, crucially not only those who have registered for a presentation or company event. It is normal practice for company briefings to provide more colour and background information. This is what will happen here.

So it is likely that there will be an RNS at some point on Monday ahead of the presentation. The presentation will provide an opportunity for management to discuss the information contained in the RNS.