Member Info for StanleyPro

Something's not right, you can sense the frustration about "the Plan" or any Plan which involves sale of business. In the RNS they reported only what they have to, i.e. if the sale takes place on the current terms it's expected that equity holders get nothing. This also goes in line with Joshua Sussberg's speech in front of the judge where it was reported that "bids came nowhere near 6bn" with enthusiasm, I believe HNS picked on that the other day. Surely, there must be a better solution to restructure debts picked up during pandemic than all assets sale on the cheap given that business is strong.

Hi Hexam,
I don't fully agree with you on the last paragraph:
"Nobody knows what the exact outcome will be but it will involve pain for shareholders. In particular anybody thinking CINE will just be allowed to come out of Chapter 11 with a revised loan repayment schedule but with no sale of assets or dilution is going to be very disappointed I'm afraid."

Ch11 procedure has already inflicted a lot of pain on the shareholders and CINE could still end up massively undervalued post any asset sale! I believe that Cineworld will be allowed to come out of Ch11 with revised rental agreements, restructured load and a clear vision with regard to repayments (so that we can manage those with the realistic footfall). Sure, the lenders want their money back as quickly as possible (even before the loans mature) but I also want 50p as quickly as possible. :D In reality, it will be something in between.

Read the Jan RNS:
"Tullow's commodity hedge portfolio provides oil price downside protection at $55/bbl for c.64% of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and c.40% of forecast sales volumes from June 2023 through to May 2024. With the majority of hedges executed as part of the 2021 debt refinancing rolling off, Tullow will have increased exposure to higher oil prices from May 2023 onwards. Tullow plans to build out its commodity hedge portfolio for the second half of 2023 and into 2024, looking to maintain material upside exposure whilst securing protection against a severe oil price downturn."

Should get better after hedges expire in May if the oil price remains somewhere around 80$ mark.

4p+ finish, take that!

"offers came nowhere near the $6bn” isn't this obvious after saying that they haven't received any bids for Regal and UK businesses?

@dbno, not yet... still 10p to go until the 52w low.

so far it looks like everything's available is shorted even at such crazy %s. @Emerald51, usually, for a financially stable company a lot of shares are available to borrow at low interest. The current short interest situation building up around CINE could benefit a rapid SP rise because on any positive news shorts are our fuel for the rocket! For a position of decent size they won't be able to tolerate a multi bag increase. They would then have to buy back at any given price. Say, the SP jumps to 8p or 10p and the LTHs won't rush to buy when they could have bought at 4.70 but you'll still see a lot of buys going through which could take the SP a lot higher. We may end up testing 16-20p within one or two trading sessions.

@steward1 because then it's up to the creditors to see whether they'd like to inject more funds to let Cineworld continue.
Low bid potentially means high D4E
Bid in line with pre-covid group valuation would reassure the creditors to back the business. (hopefully, avoiding a massive dilution)
High bid and the group would be sold.

let's test sotolo's theory that you could always buy them cheaper, would I be able to get some at 62.5? :)

Restructuring almost complete it seems:
"Cineworld has also successfully renegotiated modifications for 150 of its existing Regal leases, presumably lowering their operating costs, though have not been able to do so at 77 sites. Landlords for some, though not all, of the latter sites will likely come to new terms with Regal, otherwise Cineworld will reject the leases and walkaway from the properties."

Next, CINE will disclose the bids. Then, the lenders will get jealous and reveal their D4E plan for the restructured company. Most likely, the lenders would try to reshuffle the BoD and it would be wise [for the shareholders] to stand by Mooky and fight for the smallest possible dilution. Mind you they would be getting very good return on interest anyway,

nothing's in the news but something's boiling up here.

@Wellinton, nothing's elevated, some people are stubborn and in their view "the SP cannot go up! The company is doomed, it just cannot go up!" and then the company is going to exit Ch.11 intact and restructured according to the plan which was announced in the RNS half a year ago.

I'll take 40p.

would be nice if you could buy a business that generates 1.7bn revenue per calendar year for only 2.5bn :)

will see 33, maybe momentum will take us close to 30 on a very red / depressing day but hopefully, that'll be it for the downtrend.

If you look at 4h or day chart bear wedge is in play, the current move down will most likely take us to 30-32.

*Total revenue of c.$1.7bn comparable to a pre-pandemic year, 2019 despite lower production.
*Very healthy headroom liquidity of c.$1.1bn
*Lowest debt of c.$1.9bn in a decade and expected to go down further in 2023.
*Larger exploration budget this year

I just don't see how it would be beneficial to HOC unless your plan is to accumulate more stock at low prices. Eventually, it would be nice to recover some 2022 losses on permit news which in turn almost guarantees that future projects will be advancing on time.

@thornyone yes, but it costs around $2.4k / Au ounce to mine at Pallancata. Luckily, it's mainly silver but as Sotolo mentioned it doesn't help much either. Maybe a new vein (and license to mine) could extend its life, otherwise the mine should be conserved.