Member Info for StanleyPro

the bankruptcy lawyers have cost us $33m as of the end of January, probably close to $50m by now and they are the only ones guaranteed to get their money, regardless of the outcome. :D

well, not everybody likes his plan and if the SP is in a constant downward spiral you have to question the strategy. We already know that Rahul doesn't prioritise debt repayments but if he did the SP would be 90p+ instead of today's pathetic valuation. The market would take it as a positive, broker ratings would be upgraded and also, the media would stop putting "heavily indebted company" next to tullow every time they type something up.

@slater606 it doesn't matter what net profit they have on the balance sheet as they're not paying divi or giving anything away. TLW could have just reinvested 50m right away and showed 0 profit. The lack of commitment to reduce debt is why the SP plunged today.

mcap is less than 1/2 of the yearly gross profit which just shows you how much the SP can be detached from fundamentals. With EPS of ~3p or 9% of the current SP, TLW is one hell of a business. One explanation to such low valuation I have is that the market does not believe that the numbers are sustainable and maybe the negative S&P rating weighs on Tullow.

one thing which is certain is that lawyers will always get their money, regardless of the outcome. :D

forget the equity, it would be much more effective to reduce debt and purchase back some bonds.

Hexam, from 1297, 1298 & 1299 filled in by Nisan at the end of January, he ticked "yes" in pre-petition debt repayments in all 3 forms which suggests that they repaid something in addition to interest. It's confusing because they're putting money from one pocket to the other. For instance, 9m in administrative costs in 1297, is it only UK or group as a whole?

Hexam, My point is that if they're not repaying interest than they must be making profit. If you take away the debt and the likes of Avatar doesn't make you profitable than what will? Could you point me to the docket (on the kroll website??) where they say they're losing $100m per month? (I could only find the forecast from cine they published at the beginning of Ch11)

I'm trying to work out if all operations in Peru will slowly come to a halt, would HOC be able to survive 3-6 months until Mara Rosa comes online? In no way I'm suggesting that it can substitute Inmaculada but we have to consider all options.

@Hexam, if they are not repaying ANY debt during Ch.11 procedures than they must be making some profit. Last year, some big repayments led to liquidity crisis. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

3% up today. Hopefully, we hear good news in the next couple of weeks.

hello mountainous, just a small correction - UK & Jersey are part of Ch11.

RoW + manageable amount of debt left for Cineworld and the rest of the group is sold. I'll be over the moon if we're left with RoW, we could easily build from there. This is my best case prediction.

Where can I find monthly P/L? I could only find the forecast (Ch.11 on CINE's website).

yes, they should have included a "BUT" statement and if this is the case,
"is there an appetite for Cine to trade its way out of this mess which is why lifelines have been thrown in terms of lending?"
then equity holders would likely to recover some equity. The SP could have gone the other way...
it's interesting how they always want to nail down the SP when it starts to recover a bit.

maybe some think it's crazy but just averaged down. Will stick to my "Plan" to recover most losses before April.

Read it again.
"based on the proposals received to date, it is not expected that any sale transaction will provide any recovery for the holders of the Company's equity interests."
This is based on what's currently on the table but maybe they should also check what's under the desk.

no it wouldn't, it clears most of the debt and leases, 1~2bn with low interest is manageable by the rest of the group. They could start over, merge with someone etc.

@ianharding "Monday is key. This is when the lenders can have their say. They do not want debt for equity. Only Cineworld has been bringing this up." +++
That's what I've been saying since the beginning. In my opinion, the only quick solution that makes sense at the moment is to sacrifice part of the business to cover high interest bad debt and try to get out of Ch.11 with re-negotiated lease agreements. For that we need to prove that we have enough liquidity. They're not helping themselves by not making this clear. Why don't we put Regal up for sale for 4bn (keep in mind it's been optimised & restructured so that's a very good deal) That instantly clears most of the debt. UK & RoW can pay the rest over time. Why do they constantly repeat that shareholders will get wiped out? Our bloody lawers get 1.5k/hour and all they do is tell us - there would be no equity left.

hello poorinvester, have been looking for your post this morning. I'm still massively in the red but now thinking whether 2p is worth a speculative punt. If 2 -> 5 or 2 -> 6 materialises, should recover all my losses.