Member Info for Stan36

Even when touching 3 months lows there's quite heavy selling. Would suggest further confident shorting? Thousands sold at 1092 1093 etc. Or investors cutting losses and bailing out for pastures new. Still feels like this is a bottom formation, what with short p

ositions reducing, but maybe that's wishful thinking 🤓

Anyway it's turned blue so plenty of buyers to match

Poor quality journalism, specifically sentence construction & logic leading to ambiguity & confusion.

"According to present fleet data made available by ch-aviation, Wizz Air's all-Airbus fleet currently consists of 141 narrowbody twinjets with an average age of 8.1 years old. Of these, 17 are A320-200s and 33 are A321-200s, with the remaining 91 being next-gen examples of the A321neo."

++++

777 has previously answered this - focus on credit rating then switch to buying planes with debt.

There could also be timelines with the order book. And with the engine issue resokution still not clear, they may be negotiating conditions of delay to mitigate risk.

777 I'd be interested to see your figures on Poland being 50m Wizz passengers in 10 years.

I found total Poland passengers in 2024 was 59.5m

And a 2021 figure of LOT 25% Ryanair 25% Wizz 16%

Any more data you found?

Lol I can just see the headline: CapAI up over 5% on no news leaving day traders baffled

Not today Turbo24. Due to 13% spread and low volume? No signs of manipulated movement which would otherwise allow buying in lower. No sequential 100k sells. Well done to MMs for keeping things stable. Great buying opportunity at this price and well placed for rising steadily on news and a US listing.

Just bought another 12,233 @ 13.95p. Slowly but surely building my holding up.

Captain777 I used trailing PE and worked in £uk converting from euros

Trailing P/E (TTM P/E) Definition: Price divided by earnings per share over the trailing twelve months (TTM) — i.e. the most recent 4 reported quarters of actual results.

Formula: {Trailing P/E} = {Current Share Price}\{TTM EPS}

Updates: Each quarter, when a new report comes out, the oldest quarter drops off and the newest one is added — so it does “roll” forward every quarter.

Here are my calcs:

Q2,3&4 2025 + Q1 2026 = €251.1m = £218.4m with 105.4m shares so EPS = £2.11

Current trailing PE = £11.13/ £2.11 = 5.27

I used net earnings.....

I wasn't looking for right or wrong. Just an observation. I tend to agree with your called bottom of 6ish. Time will tell. My feeling is we are there or thereabouts. £10.75 to £11.25 range. I'd be surprised to see it dropping lower particularly as the short positions are starting to unwind whereas only a few weeks ago they were increasing.

The trailing P/E will fall further if earnings in Q2-25 exceed those in Q2-26, assuming the share price is unchanged. The fact it's 5.25 may be in anticipation of weaker Q2 results.

P.S. your post on supply and demand of aircraft globally (19,000 with 3% churn and 8% growth giving a mismatch re production rate) was excellent. Informed!

Trailing P/E = 5.24 at yesterday's close if my figures are correct. £2.11 EPS & £11.05

CAPTAIN777 you called the bottom at not much under 6 if I recall?

I think Directors buying at this juncture would be a very positive move. Yes they work for no salary but they have huge holdings and options to cover that sacrifice. With Mcap under £8m just a token buy would help sentiment enormously. Volume would increase, volatility decrease, new investors would be attracted and manipulative traders shaken off.

I'm left wondering ....why not?

Methinks Alastair Strang is on the beach, having delegated his work to AI, unless he's gone dolalley and lost his command of written English. Or perhaps he's sold out - let ii use his name in perpetuity but they also sacked the proof reader.

So we now have 3 institutions all recently manoeuvred just under 0.5% meaning no further public disclosure is required if they start to buy down their position suddenly and significantly. Disclosure is required in private so (supposedly) only the FCA is informed for each 0.1% change, until.below 0.2%

I have a feeling that some day soon, Wizz is gonna squeeze-boom 💥

I also noticed NTVO on AJ Bell - can buy but not sell. Not temporary, with no quote, they just don't offer selling 😵‍💫

AJ Bell quotes for 30,000 trade. Buy 2.3784 Sell 2.384 🤔

Short positions under 0.5% are not disclosed or included in the Short tracker list. So its possible the decrease was very small and that shorter who was on 5% is now on 0.47% - which is indeed what is shown for Citadel Securities in the lower list. Reduced on 20 October.

Similarly Marshall Wace reduced to 0.47% on 17 Oct & so dropped out of the main list.

So we now have at least 5.45% + 0.47% + 0.49% = 6.41%

Except these 2 under 0.5% could be quietly closing their positions as we speak and short tracker won't update.

The real total could easily be several % higher when all the unpublished shorters under 0.5% are included. All the better for unwinding and a short squeeze when it comes. Exciting! 😃

There is certainly a lot of institutional backing for AI slop. 🤠

No. It's the combined total of private investor holdings in nominee accounts. E.g..Hargreaves Landsdown. We will certainly know about when this share has the direct support of institutions. For now this low volume share is at the mercy of manipulation by shorters. A dubious and dodgy practice which may unravel soon. Patience 🙏

Ryanair FY25: £10.67bn "aircraft-related" PPE. Net book value.

So it may go some way to explaining some of the difference in Mcap but IMHO Wizz is still relatively undervalued even taking into account the above and also considering this AI-assisted comparative estimate of net profit difference for FY25:

Ryanair earned about €6.0 per 1,000 seat-kilometres available.

Wizz Air earned around €1.8 per 1,000 seat-kilometres.

So, in FY 2025, Ryanair generated roughly 3 times higher profit density per unit of capacity.

Indigo Partners & Indigo Hungary together own 42.19%

EU regulations also make a foreign takeover more difficult/unlikely. Would have to be a "non foreign" airline (competition issues) or private equity fund etc.

£9.70, which it touched, is £1billion valuation. Ryanair £23billion. Tempting 🤓

The huge range of their supposedly professional opinions/projections, based on experience, suggests they are possibly as clueless as anyone else. The range is from £9.50 to £30.

Some brokers are more pessimistic: the June 2025 note from Panmure Liberum cut its target from ~1,250p down to ~800p, citing cost pressures and weak earnings quality.

Are the star ratings based on analysis of accuracy of past predictions of share prices?

Increasingly these roles will be replaced by AI. I see one of them is already labelled "AI"

I tried ChatGPT for Dec 31st 2025

My December 31 2025 Estimate

Given the above, I’d estimate that by December 31 2025, Wizz Air’s share price could land somewhere in the 1,300-1,450p range (i.e., £13.00–£14.50 per share).

Here’s how I arrived at that:

Starting point: ~1,150-1,200p currently.

Base assumption: the airline sees moderate recovery in traffic, manages fuel/engine issues somewhat, and no major adverse shock.

Upside aligned with consensus (~+20-25%) → 1,380pish.

I’ve allowed a slight premium (to ~1,450p) given seasonal travel strength, but also tempered because of the cost/operational risks (so’d likely not reach the high-end forecasts).

If things go poorly (engine/grounding issues, fuel spike, regulatory impact) we could see downside toward ~1,000p or below.

So in short: ~1,350p as a midpoint, with a plausible range ~1,250-1,450p under “normal” conditions.

Speculative BUY with some volatility.