The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
The powers behind BMN are Acacia Resources and Oak Trust, both private investment vehicles for Jose Borromeo and family. Acacia have also been invested in the Mustang plans. Getting a new CEO will have taken time. Therefore my suspicion is that the process started when 4q22 went badly and Acacia/Oak decided to pull the plug on FM. Any possible second thoughts were extinguished by the poor start in 1q23 together with the ongoing Mustang delays.
The CEO process concluded in late June as we know, but FMs fate was already decided no matter how 2q turned out. Thus it is perfectly possible that 2q turns out to be pretty decent on the V production and cost sides of things even though FM was replaced.
Formal Q2 earnings (1H23 results) should arrive around end of Sept as you indicate. What we are talking about arriving this week is the 2Q production report rather than financials.
I think the Q2 production report will come before the AGM. This will be Coltman's first formal public appearance and for him to have nothing significant to talk about or to provide current context to his initial thoughts on the company would leave him seriously exposed.
Coffee cups, no need to apologise for the positivity. I understand the doom and gloom there has been, but I think it's been well overdone recently. Yes, there have been some major mistakes and there are still significant issues to resolve, but the company is far from being on its last legs as some would suggest and the idea that the new CEO has been brought in to close things down by Orion is laughable. If Orion were going to pull the plug why would their investment panel approve the deal that is being proposed, especially taking some of the debt at a notably higher share price than actual at the time of the deal?
I spent some time at the weekend wading through the BNP Paribas broker note. Yes, I know it's paid for and needs treating with care, but there's also plenty of good detail about how the costs will fall, cash flow improves, and the debt burden becomes ever more serviceable over the next few years even with just bottom end of the range growth in produnction and V prices around the current levels. I also found the discussion useful about V content in Chinese rebar increasingly moving to level 4 standards which is double the content at the current level 3 standard so even if steel production is flat or slightly down, V content will increase.
Lots to be positive about even if we hit a few more craters in the road over the coming months.
Are you alright, coffee cups? At first I thought I was reading something by Pdub given the volume of words and the general positivity!
Nice analysis Agricore, thanks for posting. Simplifying your 72.6% of 40% means BMN would hold 29.04% of Enerox plus $2.35m in cash so we own more of Enerox than under the old plan (albeit at some cost).
One of the downsides, of course, is who owns the up to 400m new shares and their intentions. Dripping these into the market will be painful (though a big chunk go to Acacia, I think, and they have been supportive over the years so maybe not so much of a firesale). It might also change Orion's thinking on the prospects for their proposed 6p shares.
Given the total amount of shares we're getting to a 10:1 consolidation might be beneficial in the near future as well.
A couple of other thoughts:
- this RNS seemed to catch Mustang out (as they copied our RNS and committed an update within 7 days) so I wonder if this is the new CEO clearing the deck ahead of production report. Better to announce bad news then (hopefully) better news, not the other way round.
- wonder whether Garnet will seek a US listing (Nasdaq) rather than London as I think that was their preferred choice all along.
My reading of this is that the Mustang relisting is not going to occur on or before the deadline of Monday so Garnet have paid their option to take control of Enerox (subject to some conditions which I've no doubt they'll meet). The 21 April RNS listed various terms relating to CLNs that can now be converted into BMN shares, but I don't understand what these really mean in terms of how many shares this might involve.
We don't know whether the Mustang relist issue was fundraising or FCA process related (or both) but it's been clear for some time this was struggling.
The 6 month electrolyte term in today's RNS seem fairly academic to me as I strongly doubt BE will be able to produce such electrolyte on competitive commercial terms over that period given the plant isn't fully commissioned yet.
In many ways, my preference now would be for Garnet to buy out BMNs remaining stake here, take the money and use it towards the Orion debt.
The market is not nefariously controlled by the MMs algorithmic trading and if you thought I said the other that then you are wrong. Over a period of weeks or more and when daily trade volume is healthy then the market moves in response to the factors you list amongst others. However on days when volume is minimal (as it has been for days here) then MM algos will kick in to try to gradually find a price at which trade volume increases i.e. buyers and sellers appear. Invariably this is a downward movement because, like any buyer, it is lower risk for the MMs the cheaper they pick up shares off the few sellers there are. Eventually they'll find a price that generates trade volumes greater than the price of a Big Mac and fries or news will arrive and do the job for them.....and whether you are a pessimist or an optimist here then I think we probably all agree real news is desperately needed here one way or another.
This is the About Us page of MK Plus. They appear to have 10 employees so need to keep it in perspective as to where they are in their development and ability to grow (even if the technology does have legs and isn't just hype over substance).
https://mkpl.co.jp/en/company
Yes, in response to a new Chinese economic stimulus plan.
If you think there's a MM sitting there all day going "I reckon it's been a good hour since the last BMN trade and there looks to be f**k all on the order book. Shall we drop the price of BMN another tick yet, boss, or give it another 10mins to see whether summat turns up?" you might want to consider whether there's possibly an algorithm doing the job instead on BMN and all the other so-called garbage stocks out there.
Of course they don't care about BMN or any other small aim share or anyone putting money in such shares. They just care about themselves and making a profit. No trade volume equals no profit so their algos will kick in and do whatever they're programmed to do to generate trades (which is most commonly move the price down and widen the spread as it is lower risk to the MM....and the current 3.0-3.3p spread is percentage wise a slightly wider spread than the 3.1-3.4p spread it was earlier).
We've had 41 trades in 6 hours today, the largest has been for just over £9k and many have been for loose change amounts. This is hardly the Wall Street crash all over again is it?
There is no volume at all and hasn't been for days as everyone is waiting for news before making their next move. In these circumstances the MMs are going to walk the price down to try to generate trades.
Broomtree - why is it premature to expect the 2Q and 1h23 production report this week when it has arrived the last week of July on the last 2 years? Yes, it won't be full results, but it will be production volumes by plant and C1 costs by plant if previous years are anything to go by (plus any modified guidance for the rest of the year). These should give a good indication whether we're on track for full year production at the target levels and cost containment.
This week is arguably the most important in BMNs history. Certainly the most important for years in terms of setting up the next 2-3 years.
1) a 2q production report at the top end of volume guidance and lower end of cost guidance sets things up well for a good full year. Conversely if the promise of early April production has petered out then the rest of the year is going to be a real struggle given the known 3q maintenance downtime that will occur.
2) Hopefully confirmation that the Orion agreement is through the legal, corporate and regulatory checks and ready to be voted upon. This seems to be taking an age.
3) Perhaps finally announcement of the Mustang prospectus and relisting rather than it being delayed yet again ( though the latest deadline for this is Monday 31st July so perhaps we'll have to wait until then). With it, hopefully more precise details on Belco and BE future too.
4) new CEO words on how he sees state and direction of the business.
5) hopefully an update on Belco commissioning and, even better, a contract or two!
Obviously an end to the bickering and provocation on here would be a bonus, but it won't happen and just getting news on most of the 5 above would be very welcome to move discussions along here to the next installment.
Well according to this report ESS (who are the main player in this area) are hardly cleaning up big time. Yes, they've had some orders, but 2022 revenues of under $900k (yes, thousand) and expense of $106million (mainly on a new plant) suggests they've some way to go.
https://www.energy-storage.news/iron-flow-battery-firm-ess-inc-ends-2022-with-800mwh-production-capacity/
Sorry....I sincerely hope that the sad and warped individual on here who doubts the genuineness of your illness reflects on the verifiable detail you have posted and desists from taking his pathetic campaign any further. He shames himself greatly by his intentions.
Very good news, Pdub, and best wishes for your ongoing treatment.
I sincerely hope that the sad and warped individual on here who doubts the genuineness of your illness reflects on the verifiable de
Ok, I accept if your share gets suspended without warning then you're stuck until it is lifted (or whatever other action occurs e.g. takeover completes). However, neither the Evraz nor the Mustang suspensions came totally out of the blue so it was by choice that those who stayed invested until suspended did so.