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The date on the Baker Steel holding update is 30 April 2023 so almost a month old. I seem to recall it was early May (at the time of the refinancing RNS) when folks were saying Baker Steel was selling down their holding so I'd suggest the true level of their actual current holding - and whether they're accumulating or selling - is unclear ( though personally speaking I can't see how any institution could have been accumulating shares over the past 3 weeks given the relentless dismal share price performance since the refinancing RNS was announced).
Eatstocks - the 12 April RNS said that BMN will own 21-23% of Enerox (Mustang) when the Garnet buyout completes so slightly down on the percentage you mention. The RNS also makes it clear that Mustang is working to relist in London. Of course in time it might move to the Nasdaq but it'll be London in the first instance assuming all the FCA rules and conditions are met.
Unless or until a serious buyer for the shares comes along - and I'm talking a minimum of 30m shares accumulation, probably nearer 50m - then the share price won't significantly move upwards. No matter how good the q2 results are if all that happens is we see some new PI interest then there will be a spike for a week or two then the MMs will walk the price down again so that they have another bunch of PIs sitting on a 20% paper loss and looking to sell again. Rinse and repeat. Easy money for them. We need another institution beyond Orion or a major private investor buying through one of their investment vehicles (surely there's one or two out there who think there's potential here? .... or perhaps not which tells a story if not even a wealthy South African thinks this worth investing in). PI accumulation/churn won't drive and sustain significant share price growth and if this is all we continue to see then the share price will drift in the low single figures for a long time. It's unfortunate and the company deserves better because it is making good progress, but it is very very unloved at the moment by those who can move the share price.
I'm surprised a few haven't tried to blame FM for Largo getting hit by bad weather and missing their numbers as he gets blamed for most things in some eyes!!
Largo's price drop today is mostly about the reduced guidance on production sales for rest of 2023 which was unexpected. The reduced production for 1q23 was already well known so largely in the price already.
The key now for BMN is to have a really good quarter on production. Meet or beat expectations here and deliver on BE and the minigrid. No misses on plans/ targets this quarter and buying should start to overwhelm those still willing to sell at these levels. Largo's reduced forward production and sales guidance should mean a little less supply in the market which should help support V prices in general (and which BMN command a premium on for much of our sales in any case). All in all, lots to look forward to.
Well I have to say I'm very surprised, but there's no doubt that's what it says! FM really needs to confirm this in an RNS because he must know it is a key financial figure that folks have been clamouring for. To exclude it from Friday's RNS and publish it on a conference website the following working day is very poor and, I suspect, in breach of stock market rules about treating all investors fairly.
I'd be very surprised if they did this outside of a RNS. FM has always run a very tight ship on the production and financial actuals and not blabbed new info in conferences or in presentations before. The LSE and our brokers would hammer him if he did and he'd have seriously p*ssed off investors who were not party to such info.
Also, BELCO will be a short term drain on cash flow. See the Mikhail linked in article posted earlier for an idea of the costs involved in getting our first batches ready which we won't recoup until the plant delivers.
You're not the only one wondering that, Daisydog. I'm also struggling with the comment that debt has fallen from $76m to $20m. The RNS was very clear. All $45m of the original CLN (loan plus accrued interest) remains in place and so all of it remains debt on the books until it is repaid. Yes, it has been restructured so that it is now a straight $27m loan and $18m of CLNs (plus interest), but it is still all debt that has to be repaid over the next 3-5 years. It hasn't vanished or been magiced away. I do expect the revised CLN share price conversion levels to be easily met so the repayment will be via conversion rather than cash, but either way it's still all there on the books until it's cleared. Similarly with the long term $30m production agreement debt. The terms have changed, but it's still got to be paid off and remains on the books.
Don't get me wong. FM has done a good job and addressed the immediate debt issue 6-7 weeks ahead of when I thought it would be resolved and it's clear to all that there's a very good and supportive relationship with Orion. Like you, I'm also a bit surprised there's no cash paid back now. My own suspicion is that a) 1q23 isn't as profitable as some claim once all the corporate overheads are accounted for and 2q23 profit outlook is uncertain given failing V price b) the Mustang deal is going to cost us even more still (Enerox must be running on fumes now given all the delays and their lack of revenue) and FM is needing to preserve cash for this possibility.
Orion might get their 6p today the way things are going!! Great news.
LawrenceH - Why not start with the simple maths. Earlier this week you said the share price would be 8p by today. How's that working out?
I'll happily take 700p per share (wow!), but I presume it's a typo and they mean 7p per share!!
Pricing section of RNS also states that demand for BMN products is strong.....bodes well for shifting the inventory we want to shift while maintaining or improving prices.
Read pdubs post from the other day. Reliability has much improved and the last 7 quarters production results have always appeared within a month of quarter end.
Eatstocks - I didn't read your spreadsheet.
Harchris - 37m in 2020 plus 66m in 2021 makes 100m in my book. No exaggeration from me, in fact a slight understatement.
Little dilution....are you sure? From Nov 2020 over 100m shares were issued to Duferco in part payment for Vanchem which is around 8% of the total shares. They then sold the lot on an almost daily basis for 18 months or so which totally negated any possible buying pressure from building. On top of COVID impacts and the various delivery missteps that occurred it's pretty clear why the share price has declined. Buying Vanchem should turn out to be a good move in the end, but there has been a high impact to the short term share price.
The point appears to be if there is up to another ZAR160m (£8m) to spend in 2024 ( on a plant that has so far cost ZAR100m) then it is far from just a few months work to get up to capacity. I accept it isn't clear whether this extra spend is to get to 8m litres or 32m long-term full capacity (or something in between), but the article talks about 4 years to get to 8m so I'm inclined to think it's the former.
Correct Jimbo. And when you (and I earlier today) say rates are way down, for example, we're talking over 90% down year to year in the case of China to US West Coast rates. BMN doesn't pay the shipping, but it certainly removes this as a cost headache that our customers had to bear big time during 2022 so helps us out indirectly.
Also worth noting that global shipping rates have dropped massively over the past 12 months. This indicates shipping logjams have cleared and will make it easier to get V shipments to customers.
Read it carefully. The 6p valuation is based of $35/kg pricing (where we barely break even depending on all-in cost exchange rate used....RBC assumption is worse for BMN that it is so far working out in 2023), 18p off $40/kg pricing where we make substantial profits. It's not unreasonable to have a 3x increase in valuation in a profit making versus barely breaking even comparison.
We'll also get the FY22 results before the end of June. These will clarify the cash situation as of the end of Dec 22. This will be the low point of cash as we know revenue and operating profit have strengthened and costs reduced since then. The fact there has been no cash call (placing or other financing) over the past couple of months means the cash didn't run out as some allege it would do and the cash position is now getting better by the day. I would also hope FM takes the opportunity to update on cash and debt in the 1Q23 production report. It doesn't need to be audit level detail, just something that takes away the absence of info that allows the doom merchants to spout their stuff.