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For the first time in many weeks there is a rise in a couple of Chinese V prices.

Sp ticking back up .... RNS incoming?

It would also be good to get a timescale for the newly announced capex and any expected production impacts (or risk) as improvements are rolled out.

I see that Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's long-term business partner died yesterday aged 99. I guess when WB has finished his morning Cheerios and toast he'll be sending out interview invites to both CC's on here as a potential replacement and the winning candidate will be on a plane to Omaha, Nebraska overnight.

Doing the maths on today's RNS.....

Using the current USD/GBP spot rate then the $4.7m Orion CLNs will result in 124.2m new shares for them and SPR will get 330.5m new shares for their $12.5m. Adding in the 232.8m new shares from the BEE interests deal as well will result in a grand total of 2.245bn shares in issue. Orion will own 5.5% of these and SPR 14.7%.

Now the deal is announced (and I've no doubt it will get shareholder approval) attention will move forward to the first repayment installment in June 2024. Current V pricing means that BMN is unprofitable and burning SPR cash. At the current prices I doubt BMN is covering the AISC never mind debt interest and other corporate costs on top so, unless their is a dramatic turnaround in V prices in the very near future, then it won't be covering the June 24 Orion repayment from cash flow. This just leaves:

1) repayment from SPR funds rather than using these to grow the business

2) more asset sales. Cellcube/Enerox being the obvious one. Would this raise enough to cover the first Orion repayment? Forget what Garnett paid previously as they paid a premium to get overall control. They've no need to offer much as they already have control and know we're keen to offload and raise money. Mustang still appear to be going nowhere so doubtful they have the funding and, in any case, why pay much when it still won't get them control? No third party is going to pay much for a minority holding either.

So, all eyes back on the V price. Without a major uptick then BMN is still in the financial mire and the Orion and SPR deals just delay the reckoning.

Some sites say low was 0.9p, others such as the official London Stock Exchange site say the 1 year low was 1.1p. Personally I'd go off the official LSE site, but that's my preference. I don't recall it going below 1p and I'm sure there would have been plenty of crowing from some quarters on here if it clearly had done so I'm a bit doubtful of the sites saying it did. In the meantime, you can both be correct and not waste your weekend debating it! Schrödinger's multi-year low if you like!

That's now 2 one million share trades in the last hour.....

Probably up half the night anxious about whether they were buying too many shares....then thought stuff it lets really push the boat out, what's another 2.6p!

On a more serious note, the new CEO does seem to like a pre-market 7am Monday morning RNS. We've had them 3 out of the past 4 Mondays and they've each been substantive rather than routine mandatory ones..... and we know the Orion RNS has to arrive very soon if it is to get through the shareholder approval process before the year end target.

Pleased with both RNS today.

SPR RNS: I suspect this means the updated Orion deal will be re-announced in the next day or two. SPR will have wanted assurances that Orion will proceed and know any revised conversion price before moving their deal to being definitive. Equally, Orion will have wanted to know SPR are definitely going to proceed (no late due diligence issue found) as it gives them greater confidence BMN has additional financial backing to execute a credible plan to get itself out of the financial hole it is in. Once both parties got the assurances/details they wanted they could move to the next announcements, the first of which we saw today.

Energy RNS: again pleased with this. Enerox and Mustang have both been a disaster imho and I'm delighted we're cutting ourselves off from these messes as much and soon as possible. I've no faith Mustang will ever relist so I have a nasty feeling these new shares will be worthless (though I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised), but at least we're a step nearer the exit door with them.

Equally, I doubt the sale of our interests in Enerox will amount to much. Who'd pay decent money for our share here? Garnett already have control so don't need to offer more than a pittance; Mustang/Acacia can't get control so why pay much just to increase their minority stake; and why would any third party want a minority stake in this dogs breakfast? I'll just be glad to be shot of this one too so I'm pleased.

Market reaction this morning backs up the assessment that this is a non event. Time to move on with plenty to look forward to over the coming weeks and months.

The last sentence in the RNS is very important where it states the company does not believe there is an impact of the resignation on the financial or operational performance of the company. While nothing will be certain until the internal investigation is complete, the CEO clearly knows his way round the financial statements and if he thought there were issues in this area he'd have announced an independent external review to get to the bottom of things. The fact he didn't and has already promoted from within strongly suggests this isn't the issue.

There are big changes going on in the company at the moment: new CEO, SPR coming in, Orion, assets being bought and sold, etc. All this will have caused lots of questions to be asked, documents to be reviewed, supplier relationships to be examined etc. as part of due diligence and Craig getting deeper into his turnaround plans and I suspect it will be in this work that it became clear the FD hadn't declared her material conflict of interest. Even if accidental and nothing untoward actually happened as a result of the conflict, it is still a major failure of omission by the FD for which she has to give notice and be suspended in the meantime.

Overall I thought it was a pretty decent RNS.

* No real dramas. There were a couple of maintenance issues that needed fixing that had small impacts on production, but on the plus side addressing them means planned 4q downtime is no longer scheduled.

* Clear identification of the dam/heavy rain issue as a ongoing risk until the remedial actions are complete.

* No mention of load shedding. This is good news and shows the previous actions taken are currently addressing the risk as far as BMN are concerned. I appreciate it's still a huge problem for the country and I've a nagging doubt whether the current municipality agreements would 100% hold if the national situation got worse, but it's good to see the current impact on BMN doesn't warrant a mention.

* Clear monthly production targets that are generally being achieved. The production volume and consistency is improving.

* Disappointing that the sales volumes fell short of production. The cause was stated, so hopefully Craig has a plan to fix it. Time will tell whether this issue proves a small blessing or a small blow for the increased inventory depending on whether V prices improve or decline!

Are BMN currently picking up the tab for 100% of Vametco's operational costs (but only getting 74% of the revenue and profits) or are the BEE groups taking their 26% of costs in line with their share of revenue/profits? For example, I don't recall seeing info in RNS that the BEE groups are raising money to help cover the extra power costs Vametco had last year or to pay their share of capital costs....but maybe I didn't look closely enough.

The SPR RNS says up to $12.5m so it's not a guaranteed $12.5m. My reading of the RNS is that they'll go to this $ amount provided it doesn't hit their 29.9% limit, but if the conversion price is so low or the Orion side of things changes such that they would go over 29.9% then it is the % figure not the $ investment that fixes the maximum they'll go to.

If and when the Orion and SPR finance deals complete KS will be significantly diluted (I'm expecting in the region of a billion new shares) and be back well under 5%. If he's going to have another change of heart then he'll need to move soon or it will be too late. Not only will he be back below 5%, but Orion and SPR (and Acacia) shareholdings will so vastly outnumber KS that he'll either have to accept their wish or sell up.

Leafie - KS did need to TR-1 his holding once he crossed the 3% threshold for declaration. It wasn't vanity or some other reason, just obeying the AIM rules.

Good to see the company actively communicating with shareholders on matters outside of results, finance or other mandatory updates. The previous BoD seemed increasingly desperate to avoid issuing any RNS they weren't legally compelled to do so this change in approach is another step in the right direction. Long may it continue.

His 4% holding today is likely to be nearer 2.5% once Orion and SPR dilution are approved so his (already minimal) influence will wane further. Once the dilution occurs then SPR will be the biggest single shareholder by far (if their conversion occurs around the current share price then they'll be getting towards their maximum stated 29.9%), Orion will be second with just over one third of whatever SPR get (so around 10% if SPR go to 29.9%) and Acacia third on the list. Collective holdings of PIs under the biggest brokers such as II may intersperse these, but SPR and Orion will call all the shots. PIs will have no effective clout despite their overall holdings as they're not a single vote (and most never vote anyway), and KS will have no effective say compared to the biggest holders.

BNP are assuming a conversion price of 3p now so this immediately doubles the number of Orion shares. Back in May they didn't know about SPR either. That's another $12.5m of dilution which represents nearly 3x the Orion conversio on top. In other words a combined total of nearly 8x what they previously assumed (and yes, it is 8x not 6x because the SPR finance is additive to Orion and takes the total to $17m of dilution). This is on top of the Mustang CLNs as well which, again, was post their previous assessment (although, in reality, I'm sure they saw this one coming as it'd been clear for many months the Mustang deal was going to fail). Once you take all this into account - never mind the write downs and the continued weak V pricing - their new valuation seems fair (and erring on the generous if anything imho).

A weakening rand increases the cost of diesel imports to SA. Whilst the electricity supply agreements are helping to mitigate many impacts of load shedding, BMN still needs diesel generators as backup and will be impacted by increasing diesel prices.