The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
TekAnalyst - it was Alfacomp (BushveldPerspective) who said in the tweet accompanying the chart that one plant in China can produce all of the capacity on the chart. The capacity on the chart x-axis is 10000 Gwh (or 10 Twh), but the coloured cost lines on the graph only went out to 1Twh so I assumed this was the capacity Alfacomp meant this one Chinese plant can produce. If it's actually 10Twh capacity it can produce then Enerox has an even bigger challenge finding a market as there's no way it could be unit price competitive against such vast production scale.
Faramog - I'm not sure I understand your point in this post. Orion are renegotiating the deal because the share price is so far from 17p that conversion makes no sense and because BMNs finances are so weak that there is no prospect of BMN repaying any (or even any reasonable chunk) of the loan from cash reserves. Thus they were basically left with 2 options:
1) force asset sales to recover the capital plus interest (and if this meant goodbye to BMN as there was nothing left then so be it)
2) come up with a new deal.
They took option 2 (assuming it gets all the approvals) and BMN gets to live at least until the first new repayment is due. This time Orion structured the deal to ensure 90% of it was on straight repayment plus interest terms with only 10% CLN as it better protects them. If production targets are met and the V price recovers to over $40/kg fairly soon (or BMN sells some assets in the meantime) then BMN should be able to generate the cash to meet the first repayment; if not then presumably we're back into forced asset sale territory and potential closure again as BMN won't have the cash available.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the chart, but what it tells me is:
1) VRFB is becoming more price competitive against Lithium for utility storage, but it is still twice the price at the largest installed capacity
2) if, as you say, one VRFB factory in China can now produce all this capacity i.e. 1 Twh of capacity at $200/kwh, then unless Enerox can compete at this price then presumably it will win no business because it is uncompetitive price wise against a Chinese plant that has such huge production capacity it effectively eliminates supply capacity constraints.
There are NO Wall Street analysts looking at BMN so your price targets are just nonsense. Your post reads like some ChatGPT generated stuff which is just wrong. The only analysts are London based - ARC (Shard), SP Angel, and the London offices of BNP and RBC Capital.
KS has also purchased the shares in his own name rather than his fund name (according to the tr1).
It's interesting to see how the target message has suddenly changed. For months and months it has been about how the company will be lucky to survive, Orion will pull out (or at the very least cancel the 6p conversion), and that investing here is for widows and orphans only. Then from 4pm on Friday it has changed to a company that is so attractive that a takeover is on the horizon.
Tell me, why would someone want to take over a company that earlier in the week was going bust because the V price is in the doldrums with seemingly no prospect of recovering before the cash ran out? Especially, in the case of KS, someone who has little or no track record of investing in V or mining or Africa.
Acacia have been invested here for 10 years and just backstopped a large chunk of the MUST failure to relist. They are here for the long term. - BMN and MUST. There is not the remotest possibility whatsoever they would sell for 5p.
Orion have made a 5 year commitment to BMN in the May refinancing RNS. At that time they could see the short term Vanadium price outlook (and the Mustang and production issues) yet they still went ahead with a deal that had 90% of the debt paid back over 5 years. They aren't about to walk away now.
The only bit of the refinance deal that looked increasingly high risk from their perspective was the 6p conversion. After today's news perhaps even this won't seem such an issue by this time next week either. Maybe this is why hmhg and crew are in such a flap.
Also worth noting that perhaps Doc Holliday and the other twitter tipster (David someone?) who suggested things might soon start happening on BMN might have been more clued up than the detractors give them credit for.
From 11:50 this morning. Biggest single BMN trade I can ever recall.
SB - so you finally admit you are a multiple id poster (as we all knew anyway). Hopefully admin will remove you and your arcm101(?) other id for breaching the site t&C's.
Sorry posted too soon. Not sure why people are concerned about the Orion refinance deal. Yes, it needs signing off, but Craig has said this is going ahead.
90% of the refinance involves making payments over 2024-2028 period so why are Orion going to pull the plug on something they already agreed 90% of which could be staged over the next 5 years? This duration alone tells you they are committed to BMN for the long term.
10% is earmarked for conversion to shares at 6p. I agree it looks like a stretch for Orion to see this price achieved in the short-term, but at most only this element may need tweaking (maybe with some extra clause to say if 6p hasn't been reached in, say, 2 years this bit can be renegotiated at Orion's request).
All in all, it's clear Orion are here to support BMN over the next 5 years as that's the length of their agreed commitment as per the May RNS.
Not really sure why folks are getting concerned about the Orion refinance deal. Yes, it needs signing off and that
Why not ask him given you can see him when you look in the mirror. Busted. Just stop wasting everyones time a clogging up the board with drivel.
Having a reseller agreement with Voth is probably better than not having one, but without any detail on the target sales volumes or revenue from the deal then it isn't possible to form any meaningful assessment of its value.
More generally, the whole of Cellcube's revenue, sales, cash, profitability and order book/pipeline is a black hole which makes assessment of its value to BMN very difficult. Since the initial Enerox deal was announced BMN has contributed cash seemingly just to keep the lights on, but we have no visibility on how much more BMN finance (or when) will be needed to prevent the lights going out on Enerox in the future. Al in all, hard evidence is needed that this whole deal isn't just a total waste of money that may even put BMNs own survival at risk.
Acacia are by far the largest single II investor in both BMN and Mustang. While I am sure there are limits to the depth of their pockets and their support shouldn't be taken for granted indefinitely, they have a lot riding on BMN and Mustang both becoming successes so I'd be very surprised if they allowed funding issues to become fatal risks to either company over the next 2 years at least (I e. they'd step in as a funder of last resort over this period if it became necessary or other funding options were crippling in cost).
The official London Stock Exchange site shows the new correct total so take it a proof they have been admitted.
Give them a chance TB. It was only last week that they said they had given samples and provided a brief outlook on how they hoped this may progress towards orders over the rest of the year. The CEO also indicated he'd hold monthly investor meets so there's an opportunity to ask him for an update next time.
Certainly some generative BS on here today.
Garnet and Acacia subscribed for $500k each of the CLN not the whole lot. We have no idea who the holders of the other $6m CLNs are and when they intend to dispose of their new shares.
Acacia want both BMN and MUST to succeed as a they're too heavily invested in both to want otherwise. MUST is their favourite at the moment, but they've stuck by BMN for a decade so aren't going to throw that away imho. Acacia want energy storage to grow in Africa and to become, via Enerox, a major supplier to this growth. Killing the main African supplier of Vanadium and electrolyte to their VRFB growth business isn't what they want. Far better to keep a foot in both camps to help both succeed.
After yesterday's RNS Acacia will be back over 50m shares in BMN. Dumping these on the market will kill the BMN share price even more and mean they raise very little for MUST as a result. This doesn't seem like a great idea for either of their babies so struggle to see why they'd do this.