Member Info for SquirtyFlower

So amusing watching the MMs jerk the share price around this morning trying to wrestle (con) shares free...but every time they drop the price they just get hit by a tsunami of buying.

Tonny - the company itself has not issued any forecast EBITDA numbers for FY18 or for 2019 for the vanadium sde of the business. Therefore you are left with 3 options:

1) estimate them yourself. This is easy given the company has issued guidance on production levels and costs and you can pick any vanadium price you want to use.
2) Use the estimates provided by BBN, Endion, Nickderby and others on this board
3) use the numbers provided by analysts such as SP Angel or ARC.

Those are your choices. Remember, however, that the 2019 financial numbers for the company as a whole will also be heavily influenced by the Bushveld Energy investments. We are still waiting more detail on these.

Like others on here, I have you pegged as someone just out to disrupt this board so you will get no more responses from me.

Now we've had the Vametco Q3 update, here's to the next good news items. Personally I'd like to see the major BE update arrive a week on Monday or Tuesday (19th or 20th Nov). This gives time for the 101 session next week to sink in and for further momentum to build. Then the statement on dividends close to the end of the month - again give the BE story chance to sink in for a few days and for people to understand the business (profitability) model, and once it has then the dividend model should be the icing on the cake.

Investec are a much, much bigger broker than SPA and, as such, would give BMN access to 'higher quality' investors and finance sources than SPA. At one level, one investor's money is the same as any others, but the reality is that it doesn't work like that. BMN is about to play in the big boys league (we know it and see it in the contacts BMN has with the SA govt) even if the wider market largely hasn't cottoned on to it yet and I think it is essential that we get a broker which has more experience of the big league and greater size, influence, contacts, reputation, etc than a two-bit bucket shop like SPA.

Roscon - yes, it does. It also makes no difference if you've already put your £20K max into your 2018/19 tax year ISA. The dividend will go in on top of this with no tax to pay.

MMs will have a bunch of limit buy orders in for prices under 36.5p (and some under 36p). They'll try to satisfy these if they can on the backs of those willing to let them.

Block16legend - I don't think option 2 was a serious suggestion, just a mischievous response to an initial poster who had clearly done no research on the company. For reasons I posted a few days ago, I don't think a takeover is credible because any interested party would struggle to get 50.01% of holders to sell - even at 225p (yes, seriously....even that would undervalue the company given the revenue, EBITDA and dividend streams likely here over the next 5 years starting with £50m+ EBITDA for 2018).

However for the benefit of anyone newly arrived to this board then your starting points for research should be:
- The Bushveld Perspective website
- the posts on here of BigBiteNow, nickderby, and alfacomp (among the many other fine posters).

However, if we list of the JSE as the company has stated, then the IHT (BRP) relief would lost should HMRC recognise the JSE as a stock exchange. This relief only applies to shares not listed on a HMRC recognised stock exchange. AIM is not recognised, but the FTSE is.

gambit - BMN was not the highest performing share today, nothing like it. MoneyAM has it at 19th with 14 shares doing over 10% and WDC coming in top of the heap at 50% rise today.

Apart from this BMN message board which is good (though more unreliable now than 12 months ago as we all get 'service not available' messages many times a day), I really don't know why people use this LSE site for anything else. It is truly appalling. The share price info is delayed 15 mins when you can get live data for free on other sites, the top risers/fallers list is often wrong, and the company fundamentals info is way out of date.

Pdub - for info, I use MoneyAM (logged in, but otherwise free). It's good for live trade info especially when you have multiple shares you want to keep an eye on. You can easily opt out of all junk email from them so you don't get an inbox full of spam.

We've also got an experienced LTH base who have learned not to set stop losses and not to panic/profit take/loss minimise at the first sign of downward price movement.

Liion - I don't know how the list is complied. I presume they are looking for all registered shareholders that are company names excluding those held by the nominee brokers used by PIs for our holdings (II, Hargreaves Lansdown, etc). I'm guessing your holding is under the latter too and so not included.

Yachty - IIs are already well involved with BMN. Invesco, Amati, Marlborough and Hargreave Hale all have holdings over 10m shares. See the following for details:

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=BMN&region=gbr&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA

15m trade at 28.5p timed for 0802 this morning..........

What I'm saying is that there is a possibility that FI and their friendly MM are working to an end of Oct date. Obviously they may not be - only they know what they've got in plan - but if they are then we ought to see the price start rising again shortly and folks currently sitting on their cash looking to time their buy may not be getting the current bargains for more than a day or two.

As I suggested last week, the current phase of FI sells might be planned to complete no later than the end of October. and today's even more active selling may reflect the final batch of this phase. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't soon start a November phase........:-(

Razor - I suspect the share price reaching £10.69 would be pretty transformational for your life as well!

daitom - the Lemur article was very interesting and informative. Thank you for posting it. Until I read it, I had not appreciated just what a significant resource and essential 'building block' it will become in the Madagascan economy (as well as being perhaps more 'green' than I'd thought). The article also makes it clear this operation has long-term (up to 100 years+) growth potential. I think I'm still of the view that BMN ought to sell it as I can see that it genuinely offers a lot of potential to the right buyer so we should command a decent sale price, but I'm perhaps a little less certain of this viewpoint that I was 15 mins ago!

Hi Ken - yes, you're right. I searched for Invesco and BMN and found the following link. Looks like we've got more II's than we thought (look on both the funds and institutions tabs).

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=BMN&region=GBR&culture=en-us

Hi Basil - it makes no difference whatsoever. That's one of the reasons I've never registered my holding. The company website lists the top 10 shareholders as of 28 Sept and you'll see that 5 of the top 10 (#1,2,3, 8 and 10) are all well-known brokers that PIs use to buy so you (and anyone wanting to takeover) can already get a very good idea how many are held by PIs.

Going by the 28 Sept info, then 40% are held by PIs. The directors are also listed at #9 and make up a further 3%. Acacia, YD and Jose Borromeo have all been long-standing holders and supporters of BMN and, while YD do also have form for selling in the past, I'd be a bit surprised if Acacia and JB are going to roll over easily to a takeover after all this time. Like us, they'll want big returns having got this far and seeing what we're on the cusp of.

To get a controlling majority, any takeover would need to get control of 50.01% of the shares. Legally, they have to make a bid if they control 30%. I see no evidence that anyone is trying to stealthily build a holding using proxies and given the fact around 50% (perhaps even approaching 60%.....and I also wonder who most of the remaining 40% are given FI/YD are less than 10% together) of the company is in the hands of people who are also looking for multiples of the current share price, then I don't think there is any prospect of a low-ball takeover offer either being made or succeeding. Any potential bidder simply hasn't got a prayer of getting 50.01% of the shares at anything under £1 and I'd think even £1.50-2.00 would be very tough for them. The LTHs and the BoD know what this is worth and going to be worth.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the plan is to complete the batch of selling no later than the end of the month....so done no later than Wednesday next week. If this is the plan, they're probably almost done now as they'd have left a bit of buffer in the schedule and made sure the large majority were sold with plenty of time to spare, so there may not be bargains around here for more than a few days now.