Member Info for SquirtyFlower

YTSS - there's no evidence whatsoever that FM long term commitments are to SA in market terms. The JSE listing is to broaden access to the SA share buying community nothing else. London is a far, far more important market than Jo'burg - especially for financing and access to the bigger investors - and so there is absolutely no implication for existing LTHs in the upcoming JSE listing. They will be able to continue investing in BMN as they always have.

Folks genuinely looking to buy - as opposed to dummy trades - but getting put off by NT should remember they can place Fill or Kill orders up to 30K shares (BMN's normal market size) at the advertised ask price and the MMs are obliged to either fill the order or move their quoted bid/ask up if they kill it (i.e. they can't meet the order). A few of these buy orders could quickly change the share price picture here.....and make for a difficult Friday afternoon for the MMs.

BBN provides his usual detailed and well-argued analysis of why investors should not be valuing BMN on PE ratios and should look at the 'big picture' things the company is doing....

.....and at least two of the more long-standing holders and members of this BB community then spend the next hour debating PE ratios! Face palm 101.

Interesting that Largo say their net income for the quarter will be in breakeven range. We know BMN will still be in large profit for 1Q19 so I'm guessing the big cost difference is interest payments on Largo's huge debts.

dixies - I couldn't disagree more with your comments. There are almost no circumstances that a company should comment on its share price movements and (if it is possible) even less circumstances it should ask for its shares to be suspended and a 20% drop in the share price in a week is nowhere near such circumstances. To follow your logic, perhaps the company should have done the same when the share price rose from 28p to 50p in 11 days back in Nov when there was no obvious reason (i.e no RNS during that period) i.e. a comment to the effect that we can't think why the price has moved up so much.

One a company comments on a share price movement then it is almost obliged to comment every time or else it begs the argument that there must be something in the movement they haven't commented on. That just plays the manipulators games for them and is something to be avoided.

Fortune is doing the right thing here in just focusing on the things the company can control - sorting out the 2018 production issues, sorting out the Brits and Mokopane plans, working with MN to develop BE, getting more powerful brokers like BMO onboard, etc. The vanadium price and share price will go wherever they will in the meantime.

The revenues, profits, and cash flow are all growing and healthy, debt is zero, and there are no warrants outstanding; demand for vanadium will remain strong, there is a supply deficit, competition is minimal and there are high barriers to entry; the company has clear plans and making strong progress in growing the energy storage side of the business (i.e. getting into new and expanding markets). There will be bumps in the road ahead for sure, but overall this looks to me to be a far stronger company than it was 12 months ago and a company that is likely to be a lot stronger again in a further 12 months and stronger again a further 12 months beyond that. For all these factors, then to me the risk-reward of the current share price looks very good and I'm fully confident that the market will turn very positive again here within a few weeks at most.

A stonking bargain even.......!

I'm not mikemming it up, as I think every Expert would vauch for the fact that all the tools in the box have been on full display the past few days, from slimy sea creatures best boiled through to the imfamous Lord Lucan. It's all rather ionic I guess as the fundamentals haven't changed here and ARC reckon BMN will be making an operating profit of £113m in 2019, a net profit of £80m, and cash flow from operations of £83m. Not bad for a company with no debt, no warrants, and a mcap of only £310m. I'd say BMN was a stinking bargain at the current price....but then I'm only a clown so what do I know.

Amazing just how many people seem to have bought at 50p and are supposedly 15p down .....

- we got slightly above 50p for a few minutes on a single day last November
- there were a couple of other days when we spent some time above 49p .... but again not all day each time

The volume above these prices was low because selling soon kicked in and brought the share price down again. Therefore spare me the sob stories. The number of people who bought their only purchase(s) of BMN shares above 49p will be zero or very close.

Sanchez - yes, my mistake thinking we were talking about a TR1 notification rather than just a large transaction printed out. I still don't think we'll see a large sale printed as I'm not convinced the MMs/seller could justify treating the sales as being a single trade when there have clearly had periods where the selling has stopped and the MMs are running a reasonably balanced book.

In the end though, it's just a viewpoint on the recent activity and makes not a jot of difference to my overall view that this share will easily go up 2-3x minimum by the end of 2019 and likely 10x minimum from here over the next 3 years or so.

According to the analysis MMs may have sold more than they bought, but:

a) 15m shares is less than 1.5% of the total shares in circulation so perfectly possibly for someone holding up to 30m shares to be selling without it being notifiable. They may also be buying back at lower prices (trading) to extract profit while minimising reduction in size of holding
b) there my be more than 1 seller who are in the above category
c) Alfa's analysis may be inaccurate

No, we will not see a large circa 15m sale being declared. It is clear from the updates to the major shareholders list that none of the shareholders over 3% have changed their holdings to cross a notification threshold. Thus whoever was selling (and I think it is complete as I don't see the drip, drip, drip of sales to any extent) has no need to notify the market.

Peterfal - these are terms which are used in technical analysis. A sp gap occurs where the share price opens higher or lower in the next trading period than the entire share price range of the immediately previous period (usually refers to daily period, but it can be hourly or weekly or minutely etc).. You can see these best on candlestick charts of the share price. I'm struggling to see one on the BMN daily chart over the past 12 months, but perhaps I haven't looked carefully enough. Typically the gap occurs because of news and the sp opens markedly higher (on very good news) or lower (eg. on a profit profit warning). There is a TA theory that gaps always fill (i.e at some future point, the share price will move back below (on a gap up) or above (on a gap down) the gap, and while this often does happen sometime in the next 12 months or so after a gap (and most typically within a few days or weeks), there are some gaps that never fill. For example, If BMN still has an unfilled gap somewhere in the 1.5p-8p range then imho the chances of it filling now are likely to be zero.

A resistance point is a share price level that has proven difficult/impossible to break. Sometimes this is just a point that is briefly reached several times over a period of days/weeks/years, but the sp just falls away again from there. Other times it is a price level that the share price repeatedly pushes up to on an almost daily/weekly/monthly basis but stubbornly refuses to go through. 50p is an obvious example for BMN as we once touched it but never got above it. In the past we saw the share price spend weeks/months bashing up against 10p but never decisively going through it.....until we eventually did and moved up sharply from there Looking at the chart since 1st Jan 2019 then the recent resistance is 42.5p. We got to it on 17 & 18 Jan but not higher so it is currently the next resistance point for the share price. TA theory is that once the sp moves decisively through the resistance level then it will move up to the next previously seen resistance level (if there is another one - 50p in our case).

Hope this helps.

As we all know, BMN has had 2 strikes and various maintenance (kiln) issues at Vametco over the last 12 months i.e. valid reasons for a customer to question the absolute security of supply from Vametco during our first year of ownership. When we're consistently perfect on delivery then perhaps we can consider whether the market will bear a greater Nitrovan premium, but until then let's focus on sorting out the production issues and strengthening the confidence of our customers in our ability to deliver.

One thing people ought to be aware about on Bed and Isa's is that your broker may not execute the B&I immediately. I have done these for a number of years with II and, at peak times such as April/May, they can take up to 10 days to execute. I don't mean up to a 10 day delay between the buy/sell part of the trade - that still happens within a few seconds of each other - rather that the request goes into a queue of similar requests and the broker gradually works their way down the queue over a period of days or a couple of weeks. II make this clear as part of accepting the B&I and the consequence is that you have little or no control over when the B&I occurs, the price it occurs or the number of shares involved. Other brokers may act differently, but I'm pretty sure a number don't.

faramog - if I wanted to read Brexit comment there are a million other places I could look and, until today, this board has thankfully been remarkably free of Brexit or other UK political comment. Can I politely request you post your Brexit views elsewhere and leave this board to a discussion of Bushveld Minerals/Energy and directly related topics.

I also get the sense that the trading pattern is a little different today with more genuine upward pressure on the share price. In particular, there seems to be more evidence in the last 15 mins or so that any sells are immediately mopped up by a buy (within seconds) whereas in previous days/weeks it has been more the case that every buy (or small collection of them) just produced a sell to prevent any upward momentum.

No trades in the first 10 mins is certainly different!

Tyfoon - I think the opposite. If trolls get the company to respond then every time the trolls start a false rumour then the company gets bounced into responding or else it gives the appearance that the rumour has legs. Best for a company to never, ever give trolls the impression that their nonsense gets noticed......the same as on here really.

There we go....ticks up on both ask and bid.......

In other words, a little bit of Friday afternoon buying pressure might set us up for a very good end to the week.