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We are pumping more money into a black hole. AB needs to take responsibility for the kraken farce.

Hi pelle. That fcf aligns well with moodys and that is what i am counting on. 450m fcf - hopefully AB does not make another acquisition next year and does focus on paying down debt.

That would assume a level of intelligente krakenoil that i suspect is beyond Trump. Trump is good with twitter and negotiating a deal but he doesnt understand that low oil prices kill the oil industry and will cause even greater pain later on. He is stuck in the 80s when coal and Steel were king and cars ran solely on petrol. Personally i think twitter should close his account.

Hi l3 - yes you are probably right 67k to be safe. I have to reanalyse that statement on Malaysia.

I think that enquest has a net debt approx what it should be with the production and poo that has been available. My prediction for net debt at year end was 1,811 musd and even IF net debt was 1871 on 31st october i think we will reach that. Next year as more Magnus fcf becomes available and assuming 69k average and poo of 68 average i get net debt around 1,45 musd. Given the Economics net debt should decelerate. We are also quite comfortable with paying down the revolving credit. That needs to be at 580 by 1 oct 2019 and now we are at 785 so that is also ok. Sp will creep up as net debt decreases. Magnus deal was transformational.

Hi fernan. Assuming that the 100m intended for bp was in that net debt you see enquest as having a net debt of 1871 musd per 1 dec. I think moodys called net debt decresing by 250 but that included reducing the Magnus debt. IF 1871 IF have net debt reduction of 125 and approx 100 for Magnus so maybe another 50 in nov and dec. I agree it is slight of hand but we should still be in line with moodys calcs - do you agree?

Also a good amount of available liquidity should it become a little tight.

Agreed. Headline debt reduction is good (just hope that includes the Oz debt :-)). Production is as pelle and mo had indicated. Again conservative with production targets for next year - as i wrote earlier i had adjusted down to 69k so that is in the range. Good hedges i agree. Who knows how the market will receive it but i sincerely hope we get a repairer spike today!

I think that enquest will send out the ou on friday so the ”good news” will hopefully be overshadowed by a good Opec deal. Opec has Done more to boost the sp in the last 2 years than AB has managed so i think this is a good move. The rns will probably reveal an average production of 54-55k as you predicted mo and pelle. I hope this delay is due to work on dc4 but unclear. This is the great problem with enquest (lack of transparency) but hopefully Opec will get us back on the right track...

Would love to come to the 60p party. Hats off to AB IF he gets us anywhere close. Faysal is not really invested here - personal choice although i think it is grounds for AB to fire him ;-)

It certainly is an important topic. Ultimately bumi will deliver until they no longer can. At that point enquest may need to have a new supplier on standby. I dont think they would want to take on more debt to takeover the lease - could be wrong.

Agreed pelle - the moodys report was very good (two upgrades in one year) and the Magnus acquisition. Really hope this puts fire under the sp - well and truly needed. It is ok to reason and explain poor sp performance for four years but that time and patience is now well and truly over for shareholders

Same sort of story for me pelle. Today the sp is less than 2014/15 IF one could believe that! In all honesty no serious investor could at all be happy with the way the company has been managed and sp performed over that time. Yes this is a difficult business and unpredictable but other companies such as Lundin, pmo, Carin have performed significantly better than enquest. Yes AB has a lot of skin in the game and that is lovely but that does not make him a better CEO for that. It is quite honestly time for AB to deliver in terms of real sp improvement. This bobbing along and going up 1% on a day like today is unbelievable. Had poo gone gone 5% we would be down 10%...

Bit confusing / disappointing response to the close to 5% jump in poo. Still a lot of shorting going on with enquest - hopefully all will be resolved soon...

Must say i was hoping for a better response after the rns and the spike in brent. Lets see what the Opec meeting brings...

Not sure. I imaginär after signoff that were they to go bankrupt then someone else could take over. It is a Customer supplier relationship now

Thanks pelle. So somewhere around 54-55k we should expect in the ou. I thought with Magnus we would be 12k higher?? My predictions of an average of 72k next year should probably be revised down to 69k. Nevertheless with a good hedge it should be a good impression. Magnus has Done a lot to relieve the situation that Alma, galia, kraken and scolty has caused. I hope that we can start to move back up towards 40p in the next 3 months. The 54p and 60p parties should be cancelled - wishful thinking :-).

I think the market has already factored in that kraken and Alma, galia and scolty are disappointments. With a good hedge i think we should have reason for optimism. Pelle - what do you get average production to Jan through sept knowing that H1 was 54k. Can you do that with and without 100% Magnus and 25%?

Agreed e121. I think overall 2 of 3 concerns are looking good. The third is brexit and who knows what will happen and how that will impact UK stocks and the pound.

Be interesting to see how the oil market interprets the Trump xi accord and the positive messages around Opec + continuing collaboration.