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Sorry chilts - is that a transfer of load 29 or 30 you refer to?

Thanks for pulling that up again romaron.

Interesting part of the analysis - “In reality, we forecast end-18E net debt being flat year-on-year at c$2.0bn as annual EBITDAX growth of c160% fails to translate into free cash flow.” That should not be the case (although still disappointing) as net debt should be closer to 1,8BN.

I am not advocating that the BoD responds to the analyst updates however I do think that the BoD needs to raise their voice very soon. Enquest is becomming high risk and low return. This does not reflect well on the BoD

The other interesting thing is that pmo has been able to reduce their net debt quite strongly by approx. 400m. I think that we will end up with 1810 so that would mean close to 200m for enquest. Pmo had average production of 80k and enquest 54. I get that to pmo paying down 13 dollars a barrel and enquest 10 which would also support the hypothesis that our be was 3 dollars higher assuming roughly the same realised price.

Yeah - defer to your statement e121. Well i am left scratching my head after this week. Anyone got hold of the barclays and cannacord analyses? The only thing that i can think of is that they are expecting a write down on kraken - so the question is how much will it be? What is kraken currently valued at and are we at the point where it needs to be written down? The Bonds have Held up well. Regardless there are big questions that enquest bod need to answer

E121 - the ave realised price in h1 was closer to 60 wasnt it after hedging?

Hi Pelle - do you have that link on the initial loan debt. I can't find it in the RNS I have checked.

Hi Fernan, I believe that the initial 25% loan is fully paid as communicated by Enquest

When was the last offload and were we any the wiser on the size. Could any of these broker rating updates be driven by perceived troubles around the december loadings? - Chilting, MO?

Interesting - I had missed that on BP profit share being included in the 450M FCF. That may explain the difference then. Regardless it goes to show the complexities of the deal.

Thanks Krakenoil. I assume that I am much like yourself. Have been in here far too long - looking to make a profit (like anyone else) but thwarted for a multitude of reasons. It is tiring....

Hi Fernan,
I thought that the lease payments for Kraken were treated as a financial expense and handled before FCF but not included in OPEX as you write. We are pretty close iwth the 880M that you write for EBITDA however FCF differs quite abit.

It is academic and a great shame that we who have bought into ABs story are forced to sit happlessly by and watch this occur. I know few agree but in my opinion Enquest needs to be much more on the front foot. If interest in the NS is increasing then I could well see a takeover attempt be made. The Market Cap is laughable and although the BoD may have the best intentions in the world I am sorry to say in my opinion they have not succeeded. If the market is not understanding the Magnus deal and therefore their ratings are awry then the BoD needs to do a much better job at explaining it.

Hi Pelle,
Yes you are right. That is the loan of 100m - how much they are to pay down this year? I thought we had talked about 20m a year over 5 years...

Hi Fernan,
Appreciate your posts - great work. Just a reflection - if you look at the Moodys note they claim EBITDA of 950M and FCF of 450M at 65 USD. Can you see where you differ from their outcome? I think maybe they calculated on 65k boepd so that may explain it partially.

Just read PMOs press release today - extremely professional and a good indicator for what Enquest should do. It is simply not enough to work in silence and hope that the market gets it right. In my opinion (I know no one else agrees) it is up to the BoD to show both shareholders and the market that they are creating shareholder wealth. At the moment they are not doing this and the sp reflects that. I welcome a takeover of Enquest if that is what the BoD is waiting for. This is unacceåptable.

You couldn't script it. Obviously a relief that we are not under 20p as could have been the case after that rubbish analysis but the life just seems to have been sucked from the sp....

I have an EV of approx. 476 MUSD + Net Debt assumed of 1811 giving approx. 2287 MUSD. EBITDA is projected by Moodys to be 760 M in 2018 giving us more or less bang on 3. In 2019 they are predicting 950M and FCF of 450 MUSD leaving a net debt of 1361 MUSD. EV being equal that should push the market cap up to 926 M and retaining the same multiple up to 1489 MUSD. Even with a market cap of 926M we should be nudging 45 p a share.

Pelle - i would love a 60p party.

Good post Plethorus. Agree also 100%. You pick up on a point that I have raised and that is Enquest is simply not built for delivering new complex projects to market. They are more skilled at buying aged assets and squeezing more production out of them. It has been an expensive lesson and I am not expecting anything great from Alma/Galia or that Kraken will average over 35k. This is as good as it gets but another Magnus deal could well be worth a look as long as it doesnt impact debt pay down greatly.

My forecast for net debt at year end is 1811 MUSD. I came to this independently of moodys but it was surprisingly in line with their prognosis. They are calling for a reduction of 270M in 2018 which I believe includes the 100m Magnus loan. Starting with a net debt of 1991 that gives roughly 1821 MUSD. Interestingly, this year with brent ave of 65 which I think is likely they are calling for FCF of 450 MUSD and EBITDA of 950 M. They are calling production of 65,4 k boepd which aligns with Enquest production forecast.

Dancing Queen - go back to the advfn forum