Member Info for Squif

Hitman - i think you are jumping to conclusion. Enquest has shifted borrowings from long to current term as they were due 2018. That accounted for the uplift in current and larger decrease in longterm

I am sick and tired of all this sp manipulation. Midestus - the reason i qualify whether you mean naked short selling is because short selling is in fact decreasing. Someone is selling and it is either a major shareholder or a short seller.

Sorry modestus - are you saying that it could be naked short selling? I thought that was illegal...

Hitman - assuming a write down (in fact it doesnt matter whether enquest does it or not as the market has Done it for them) IF we are to meet the bottom of production targets and assuming no new discoveries our 2p reserves are around 250m that is to say more than 10 years worth - what on earth would drive this valuation? We should produce at above 63k barrels a day the coming 3 years which would enable the pay off of the revolving credit.

I have always felt that AB was liberal with the truth. Here we are again. Who is up for a class action?

This is the second time we have plumbed these depths with enquest. Last time was before 2 RIs. There is bo excuse this time. AB has to go!

Even in the worst case that we could imagine - 63k production and a write down of kraken of 385m does not explain the current market cap.

This is not right. Wtf is going on???

I also agree that at 66 dollars and production of 63K we should be getting FCF after capex of 200m. Interesting point that you raise Hitman regarding suppliers. We will need to keep an eye on movements in current liabilities.

In addition we have added 12k barrels net production with Magnus which should bring us to at least 67k IF kraken is 30-35k which is in line with what in produced last year (30k). Wtf - he is quoting 63 to 70. The maths dont add up! Especially when Magnus is at 20k, Alma has shown some improvement and take away a couple of thousand barrels for natural declines

Well put krak and rightly he should be. This is a huge embarassment. We have a market cap that is less than where we were this time last year, we have had a rights issue that brought in 100m gbp, bought an asset with npv at 500m at a poo slightly higher than we are now and we paid down debt of 220m net. AB this is a disgrace!

Lol. Pelle - that was an illusion. Good sales argument to sell in the Ri. Unfortunately i am in a meeting at the time of the call (some of us work to send AB money to fritter away) so you will have to ask the question on my behalf this time

Yes - he will be toasted. I sincerely hope that AB gets some media training. He does not sound convincing when he talks and this sentiment plats a huge role particuarly now when his reputation is under huge scrutiny. He must use definite words like is and will not shall and likelihood and so forth. That will not cut it. He has promised and not delivered in the past and now it is Word against word.

IF we get to 500m for enquest less Magnus with npv 500m at poo 70 then we would be at 850m. That would be amazing. I cant either explain the current sp looking at the fundamentals. It is something more. Not sure IF the 21st will remove the dark clouds but lets see. AB is under pressure i believe

Hi hitman. Is it 2 wells for dc4? Do you think kraken will be able to push past 35k. I guess 40k is the uppger limit of sustainable production. Just checking the major shareholder list on the webpage per 31/12 and crosschecking against the Ri from last year. Seems to be fairly intact. They would need to flag IF they were selling down right?

Fully understand chilts but there will be no empire without shareholders and next time a Ri to raise money will fall flat and borrowing more money is not really the way forward. I believe a lot of the current selling is by fund managers. Will be interesting to see any movements - it has more or less been constant since november. Enquest needs to attract institutions to buy the share not just mugs like us.

Hi krakenoil. I have written many Times on this topic and i am a broken record now sadly. I think the fundamentals are ok. I think we will survive whatever the situation is with kraken. What we will not survive is a management WHOs confidence with the fund and investment managers is completely gone. Of course we should be much higher than this and cne has shrugged off a write down and a write down of 1bn.

My understanding is that oilies do not value their assets at the spot poo per 31/12 but rather the 3 year forward curve to smooth out these disruptions. They did not mention that at all in the call but rather the water cut being 20% more than they had modelled in the fdp

Yes true. What is key is that they can confirm production targets, explain what is possible with kraken this year and then Magnus of course

I notice that bumi also used the Word prudent when explaining the motivation to impair kraken. I guess they have had an argument where cairn and bumi on the one hand have sided with prudency and AB not. Analyses suggest that enquest has much to lose from an impairment. Not sure IF this would impact one of our ratios but i am not sure. The rns had most likely an even far worse impact on share than IF they had kept quiet but who is to know.