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I disagree, maintaining an active social media presence is an important part of investor communication strategy these days. Clearly there is no news to be shared via RNS so they are providing updates on the market in general. It’s 100%linked to our core business (oil) so of course it’s relevant to us as the cost of oil directly relates to our income.
Thanks for sharing. Have to say my confidence rating for this drill is the highest it’s been. It feels like all the learning they have gained, aligned with the technology and the experts they now have in the business means we have a great chance of success. Seemingly the chance of significant oil flows are high.
Geowiz - this isn’t a debt laden O&G explorer, we are arguably one or two drills away from proving we can successfully develop the field. As always in oil industry there are likely to be set backs, but the way some on here project that it’s all over and the company is a shambles - yes things could have been done better but we’ve got wells that producing and a buoyant global oil price that most are suggesting will stay around this level if not higher. If the next sidetrack is successful I think that firmly gets us back on track and will at least allow a raise at a price north from here. Maybe the pat-e1 well comes next. Have a read of the Tennyson report from earlier this year. Obviously we haven’t hit the oil numbers but the rest of the report should give shareholders confidence there is a plan. My hope is that they don’t try and secure financing to bridge the period between now and next spring which is realistically when we’d expect jkt oil to be contributing.
Not sure this can drift much lower. NAV is what 30m? Can’t raise at this price, at least not anything decent. I think we bump along here until jkt results, maybe there’s some funding discussions in background with Schlum or others. Personally I can see a much brighter 2022 but this sidetrack is critical. If that fails then what do we think? There’s no debt so it’s long way from insolvency but they will need to be pragmatic about options - possibly a sale of assets and a special dividend?
Bad result however I hold out some hope. Whatever anyone thinks it’s hard to argue that they aren’t learning from the drills they’ve completed, and however harsh those lessons have been for us financially you would like to think each one gives us a better chance of future success. 6m of free cash flow if they come in on target at Jkt, maybe a small raise to sidetrack at wrba1, and then reassess.
Understandably much negative sentiment and without AJWs technical insight to puncture it, reading this board is a hard slog at the moment. However most us know the fortunes of an oil and gas company are never far from flipping - that works both ways. Any sniff of a successful remediation on the current drill and the optics change completely. Radio silence at the moment - presumably because we are in testing. That silence will break soon.
Most positive update we’ve had in 3 years? Arguably. Would still like to see a version of this communicated directly to shareholders
It’s an interesting link to post on the company twitter page isn’t it. I was thinking the other day I wonder if there might be a deal being discussed in the background. Net asset value plus a takeover premium. Who knows, Block not in a strong negotiating position in terms of current performance but as a debt free company that strengthens their hand. I’m still optimistic about wrb1 but The lack of any updates always tests my nerves
And are we expecting news on next drill spud imminently? Lots still to look forward to, you’d think we were a dead duck reading some of these posts. Fundraising is par for the course with early stage o and g firms. Hopefully we won’t need one if wrb1 flows anything like half decent.
Emotions running high, but I think those calling for PH to go should wait a few weeks. My reading of the RNS yesterday is that there is a known solution to an incredibly common problem all oilers are likely to encounter to a lesser or greater degree. Surely the time to judge board performance is when we know whether the fix has worked. Simply claiming this is a repeat of 16 is narrow minded in my view, give them a chance to fix the problem. If they can’t, then I agree we need a change. We have BH invovled in this drill do I don’t think this can simply be compared to past failings - it’s frustrating but my take is we need to wait a few weeks, and we will then be told where we stand. That is when we should judge, not now.
I would expect a verbal update or two via a podcast over next few weeks which should give us clearer indication on timescales for the solution for wrb1. AJ or others - hard to tell from the ops update but the decline rate of 38 appears steep. Is that typical of a work over well more than a newly drilled one. I.e if wrb1 can flow would we expect decline rates to be shallower? The corporate presentation I read previously suggested an 18% decline rate. Interested to know why 38 seems to be doing more. Can live with the the delay on wrb1, I was more perturbed by the drop in production quarter on quarter and suspect that’s a big factor in the sp decline today.
The testing update will come when it comes. I am taking a lot of positive vibes fr9m the twitter updates on oil price - I don’t for a minute think any company, certainly not one that has been on the roller coaster ride Block has, would be foolish enough to push out updates on rising oil prices, and then announce a failed well during testing period. The board would all be kicked out at the next opportunity. I think what is happening is the board has learnt lessons, taking their time and will publish results when ready, and in the meantime to avoid any news voids, they are signalling that as an oil producer, the improving macro demand / price is of direct benefit to the company. There’s no point signaling an exact date when results will be published - that just encourages the wrong sort of share trading in my opinion. They said last week ‘shortly’ I am reading that as anytime from now, but I’ve pencilled in this time next week. Happy to be proved wrong and for a nice gusher to be announced earlier. Trading volume is thin, historic trust issues and the constant drip selling of employees shares all put downward pressure on the share price. Imagine a world where there is a monthly dumping of new shares to suppress the price - if WR produces anything close to target then that world is only a few weeks away, hopefully.
MP I share your concern. I got burnt with FRR and I’m sure that’s changed my mindset irrevocably in terms of fearing a bad outcome. That combined with transparency issues with Block previously. If you ignore the share price (I know impossible to do!) and look at the fundamentals everything is falling in to place. But the key to the door is tied to the current well test results (and to a lesser extent the q3 ops update - personally I’m not expecting anything earth shatteringly positive in that as think we would have heard if 16 was now churning out a decent amount). Everything else is just noise. Funny how that same sell caught my eye but in the grand scheme of things it isn’t huge money and we all know people who trade on AIM are possibly those more likely to buy/sell swiftly as they sniff out an alternative bargain. Might also be to do with the update we got in the week. I read that as results not before the week after next, so maybe we drop further next week before the results. Any drop now now is largely irrelevant if the results are good as we will rerate much higher.
Not wanting to sound like a drama queen but I think the next 2 weeks are the most critically important in Blocks lifetime. If the q3 ops update and flow results are both positive then we are in a great place. If one is great one isn’t we probably won’t budge much, and if both are poor we will tank. Don’t mind admitting I’m a little anxious given the price action in recent weeks although the volume is so low I hope this is just traders or the impatient, rather than a leak. I thought we’d be way north of here as we approach a critical reporting period, but we aren’t so no point whinging. Two weeks could change much in terms of sentiment, confidence and share price but that can work both ways. Good luck all we sure deserve some.
Intrigued to find out what our production numbers are when we get the q3 ops update. 80 dollar Brent puts us on track for mega profits at 1000 bopd per day - if we work on newly drilled well meeting the 500ish expectations that doesn’t mean we need an awful lot from the work over programme to hit four figures. If my maths is right that would generate just shy of 30m pa in gross revenue.
Well said mjs, couldn’t agree more. I’m getting increasingly excited and nervous about the pending results - these results set the scene for the next well so in some ways the result is worth more than the sum of its individual contribution.
Undoubtedly a big flow of news is due and by the end of October we will have the q3 update to digest as well as initial flow results from the current well. A huge period in the life of Block and hopefully a huge turning point.