Member Info for Spudsoil

My view:
Last ops update suggested 95% of costs are covered with flow rates at 550 per day. So if we add in any volume from 16, plus additional volume via upgrade works across wells and we should be comfortably above break even. Let’s say we need 600 boepd at $60 oil to break even. Imagine oil at 70 and success with the drill bit. Takes us to a new level. Have said it before - this share tests my patience but I feel we have just about turned the corner, and if oil price stays decent we will be double figures by year end. 2000boepd with no debt and payback on new wells in a year. Wow.

Innocent question: why do so many seem to think there is a big conspiracy here? Is this not simply a case of a company that is currently unloved, looking to turn a corner but has frustrated investors, private and institutional? The low volume of trading doesn’t reflect some sort of trading or shorting conspiracy, it reflects an apathy in the company’s performance, which hopefully changes after the next update. Happy to be told otherwise but I don’t see a conspiracy here. Boredom makes people jump to irrational conclusions.

It’s a fundamental part of communicating with investors to signpost contentious or potentially contentious areas. So singing from the rooftops in Feb about improved flow rate and then leaving us guessing about how the shortfall reported last week is made up, id say that’s pretty poor. Ever sinde we’ve had knowledgeable investors on here trying to work it out - that isn’t their job, it’s the companies job to do that. As it happens I have a strong suspicion that the next reported flow rates will be healthy and beat market expectations, so I’m typing this in a confident mood but frustrated that the company seems incapable of communicating better.

I’m frustrated too Tony as are lots of investors I’m sure. I think the next update is absolutely critical. It should contain an update on flow rates for 38, plus remediation updates for 16 plus the other stuff they are playing with. We then enter a new drilling season with a understood cash flow position. At present it’s too much guess work to determine what our current/ future income stream is (excluding new drills) and I think that prompts sellers. They continually make a mess of communicatiing what should be simple updates, so it’s unsurprising that commentators such as Malcy jump on those updates and put their own spin on them. What we need to know is our cash flow position and if we can’t know that, we need it clearly spelt out what’s preventing it. I’ve said it repeatedly - the communication strategy the company use is poor, that coupled with distrust of CEO means no momentum (yet). Stable healthy flow rates changes sentiment

Finally some deserved interest rekindling in Bloe. Hopefully we build momentum ahead of the drill season.

I’m not talking about the content - really happy with that - but if the content goes to mostly existing investors and a tiny Twitter audience the company isn’t going to attract new private investors. Whatever people say about success with the drill bit leads to an increase in share price, the better know the company is that is succeeding with that drill bit, the more investors they will draw in. That bumps the share price up leaves further options on the table around scalability of operations.

Pleased they released the presentation but why aren’t they RNSing it. They have 800 followers on Twitter, I’d guess most of them are existing investors. An RNs reaches a potential audience of millions. It’s basic stuff and this sounds harsh but it’s hugely incompetent. Know your market and what you need to do to reach it.

Scooby, I’ve had similar thoughts. The wider market has been on a massive bull run for years, with the exception of the COVID drop. That makes stagnation of a share price harder to slower. But the wider market performance isn’t comparable to a fledgling company that is starting to put down roots. Markets could tank 20/30% easy when cheap money dries up, that doesn’t impact bloe unless oil prices tank. So I guess what I’m saying is it’s tough being in a share that has done sweet fa over past 2 years, but if the wider environment changes suddenly bloe performance doesn’t look as bad.

I will add that communication needs to improve. I’ve had a whinge about that before but I think it’s justified. The corporate presentation deck they have just released - why didn’t this get a mention in the q1 update yesterday? Perfect opportunity to promote all things Block but they didn’t bother. Surely the team understand that increased interest in the company is a good thing, especially when things are starting to look far more positive. The random Twitter photos mean nothing, you can tell that from the tiny volume of comments and re-tweets they get. Why don’t they post meaningful stuff supported by RNS. They’ve spent all this money on oil experts. They shouldld fork out some monthly shares to buy in a competent communication professional as that is aspect hampers the company.

I think patience is key here. It has been for the last couple of years and that is still the case. If they hit the numbers in their presentation pack that absolutely categorically takes this company to another level. We need stable oil prices and success with the drill bit. I think the difference this time round is the team that Block have assembled is weighty and I agree with the other comments on here about their projections being cautious. First test for the new team is the remediation of wr16, fascinated to see how this turns out. Patience but I do expect the share price to appreciate over 2021

We are overdue confirmation on the salary share scheme. Previous RNSs have been second working day of the month (yesterday for April). I presume it’s still running and rns is delayed. Otherwise they would have mentioned it in update.

I agree that’s the most likely scenario. I’m surprised there was nothing in the update about the monthly share for salary scheme. This is a key part of the financials and no mention at all. We also haven’t had the monthly rns to confirm salary paid as shares. Hopefully we will know one way or other very soon, a bit frustrated nothing included in the ops upsate

Thanks appreciate the reply. Get why you think that, I just hope the big unfreeze happens sooner although two months more of being prudent won’t kill the sp

Why? What changes in 1 month/ 2 months time? Extra revenue from the 2021 drill program is some way off so why do you think the shares for salary scheme continues for the next couple of months? They have to stop the scheme at some point soon or it becomes a farce (oil price decline and Covid shutdowns dictated the move in 2020) and If it lasts until the 2021 drill program delivers revenue there will be no investors left!

PH buying in was a great signal. I think the share prices drop is a result of no news plus what I presume is constant selling from the service providers and staff that are paid in shares. The sooner that arrangement finishes the better. I don’t see any reason why it can’t end imminently and hope that the announcement comes alongside confirmation of our drilling plan and associated timescales, payment from BAGO and perhaps an update on flow rates, although the last of these I would expect later this month or in May. Lots of news in the pipe and if PH is buying then that’s the best signal weve had yet

All sounds promising. Just need to see some funds coming in

Filling a big buy. The MMS will take a stack load of shares in one go. I think we get an RNS ops update tomorrow and the rise begins.

An ops update via RNS sorts all this. It is frustrating but O&G industry is famous for things taking longer than planned. Haywood buying in last week is the strongest signal yet that we are doing okay, we need confirmation that income from gas sales is on its way or has landed already and I think then we get the re-rate.

I think something big happens soon, sp been static for months now, we’ve got the competing pressures of placing sales vs improving macro environment. I guess it depends on which one runs the longest! If the oil market remains resilient for the next 12 months or so then my guess is we are in a different place as the placing overhang will be long gone, as will the drip of shares via the monthly handouts. We just need some (more) positive news over next few weeks and months to generate interest in the company and hopefully that interest will generate buying pressure beyond the sell side bias we have at present. Soooo much positive has happened with Block over previous few months and am sure it’s a coiled spring currently. Might take a few months more but as long as macro environment remains positive then we fly at some point I’m convinced of that

I’m with you Hep, I think an update this week. Another thought on the constant drip of sales at or under placing - perhaps the various service providers being paid in shares. I hadn’t paid much attention to that but thinking it through that is a logical outcome - get paid in shares, cash them in. Very different to an employee immediately cashing in, although am sure that is happening too as not many people can afford a 40% reduction in take home pay. Just some thoughts but if right I hope that the buy side picks up once we stop proffering shares to all and sundry every month.