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In terms of a potential take out, IMO I dont think anyone will be making decisions until they have seen capital intensity and opex numbers in the DFS. With the government support we have I think the permitting/EIA has been de-risked to an extent and the mood must on financing CRM projects in Europe looks very positive.

My hope/expectation is the Cinovec capital intensity is much lower than the Vulcan finance package. Note, RIO's capital intensity for their in flight dev projects including acquisition is more the benchmark i am looking at, then we net off our grants.

Folks it didn’t take me long to find another ribtickler for you on a Friday afternoon:

“So EMH still need to finance debt to the equivalent of TEN TIMES their market cap.”

Can you imagine being our size and trying to put a $1billion+ finance package together involving the EIB,export credit agencies etc? Then all the grants? I think this is where the JV is coming into its own. We are partnering with a 30billion company that is majority state owned.

I am not saying there won’t be EMH equity dilution as some point next year as part of the finance package to build Cinovec but Geomet will manage all the debt, grant, offtake and other instruments that make up the majority of the capex to build Cinovec.

Dear all - I freely admit it, I missed the troll, I really did. So I took him/her off filter. Low and behold the first post I read is about Capex and "EMH still needs to raise 49% of the capex value,"

wrong, wrong, wrong

Geomet is the JV that owns the asset so all debt, grants and offtakes will be at that entity level and then remaining equity (which is TBC) will be contributed by the JV partners

How does the troll expect to be taken seriously as the custodian of the bear case and after 5 years still doesnt know the absolute basic foundations of the JV. We must be dealing with a very low intelligence individual.

I think the chances of CEZ buying EMH are very low. Not a good use of public money and CEZ would prefer an experienced Lithium Chemical player to take us out IMO.

@LukasK yes, I agree to an extent there was definitely some double counting going on, especially with the EIB debt portion of what was announced, we already heard about that from the EIB a couple of times, I think the only difference now is that the EU will underwrite it.

The definitely did announce that some of the existing grants budgets will be carved out for CRM projects in 2026 and by my maths that was 1.3billion euro plus whatever is in the defence initiative pot (probably applicable for us due to the Tungsten by products) is now available for us apply for. So that is a good chunk more grant money and with Kiebler and Vulcan already at FID i dont think our timing could be better. Obviously we still need to go through the process to get awarded the money but i think yesterday was a good step forward but not yet a massive leap

Looks encouraging @Fingersxed it's hard to see anything like the equity dilution that Vulcan went through to get to FID and it does look as though we can cover the majority of our capex though debt and grants. Given that Kiebler and Vulcan have already taken FID we are the only lithium end to end project that is nearing FID and I think that the EU is going to be desperate to get us over the line next year to get some runs on the board for RESourceEU, such is their love of self promotion.

I think the compelling reason for a bigger player to step in here is their chemical experience. This is a gap, in terms of GEOMETs ability to to scale up the processing plant, train the locals etc. You could have the likes of Posco come into this project and their only outlay would be to take EMH out for say £500m which would pay back quickly and potentially very quickly at $20k lithium, which is a very reasonable target. Depends on reasonable Opex of course but we we will get to know that maybe next week. There will be debt to pay back, but lets not forget this is a multi decade resource that the DFS will only cover a small % of.

Export Credit will also form part of the funding package. I am estimating export credit and EIB loans is an easy €500m with €200m more in grants from the pot of money announced by the EU today. So adding in the €400m we already have in the bag, that gets me to €1.1billion, before we even start to get to pre-pay offtake. A pre-pay on just a 3rd of the annual production over a 3 year period, total 30K lithium, at say 15K/tonne (which I think is quite attractive given the trajectory of lithium pricing and supply demand consensus) then it is capex covered, no dilution.

now if you follow that logic so far, perhaps you might think about why our market capital is £50m and also do you think that there are bigger players looking at us as a ludicrously cheap way to get into a very long life, strategic project in a Tier 1 jurisdiction without having to put any equity into the construction of the project.

Indeed, in the PFS the tin and tunsten annual revenue was worth about $1100 of offset on the opex cost per tonne and prices today for those commodities are signficantly higher. Will be interesting to see how increased revenue from both pricing and tonnage is used to offset the opex/tonne, would nice if they can get that to $1500/t

Very pleased to see the Vulcan package coming together this morning. Another great sign for the fledgling European CRM sector, Certainly bodes well. Vulan did have to dilute at both project and equity level to get this package in place (and our grant was 2 theirs). Whilst EMH has already diluted into the GEOMET JV to bring CEZ on board I note that the JV has since secured 400m euro of grant funding without further dilution and from an EMH POV we still only have 220m shares in issue and a good % of the dilution since we did the CEZ deal was to bring in the EBRD, who i dont believe we will be selling shares any time soon.

Whilst we know there will be a need for G+A funds in the near future, I am sure investors are starting to see that the CEO has charted a course through some very difficult waters over the last three years. I completely accept that he hasnt got everything right here and made some bad calls, but if someone can show me a better positioned CRM junior at this market cap in a Tier 1 jurisdiction I am all ears.

Oh I see that our lovely troll is back, I hope you all enjoy your exchanges with it. Especially as we now have another 360m euro towards our capex.

I am sure there will be another set of arguments, highlighting more risks (we are a £40m company sitting on half of the one of the biggest lithium projects in Europe, sure there are still risks). Ask yourself the question, does it look like the EU are opening up their chequebooks (we will find out tomorrow)? After last weeks news, is your thesis still in tact? Is it stronger or weaker?

Welcome back troll, great to have you here.

EIB keep to put €2billion/year to work on CRM supply chains https://x.com/sporazene2/status/1995151033224585464?s=12

Gsdstigs- given the likelihood of cheap debt from the EIB to come and maybe some more grants on top of the 400m Iam start to feel comfortable that we should be able to raise a good chunk of the capex through non dilutive means. Keen to hear more from the EU next week. However opex is a bit unknown and really interesting now. The DFS will clear up that unknown and our place on the cost curve will be clear. We know for sure there will significant annual opex inflation from the DFS in 2022 but on the flip side we know there will much production giving us economies of scale in addition to the processing savings reported by the company since 2022. Finally Sn and W byproduct credits will be higher given much higher pricing today that’s used in the PFS

Bob - i would suggest absolutely zero chance of anyone picking up our 49% of the JV that CEZ/CZ Government doesnt want in. Would be nice if a Chinese firm made an offer to smoke out others but unless CEZ wanted them, no chance it would be approved. Post FID, I think Geomet needs a firm with experience of standing up and operating the processing facility; training the locals etc

My 3 likely targets are 1) Posco 2) Albemarle 3) AMG

@Blonde-ad I would think the EIB are going to be good for at least 250m Euro, probably more on very good terms. EMH is starting to looking like a very attractive proposition for a bigger player, experienced with lithium chemicals to enter into the european market with cheap debt, grants already in place and potentially offtakes so very modest capital outlay meaning very solid long terms returns.

Skelly - come out, come out, where ever you are....

Folks i put this together to outline what is to come over the next few weeks, feel free to like and retweet

hTTps://x.com/sporazene2/status/1994338571973542115?s=20

Definitely a lesson for all us long term holders that often, all is not what it seems from some of these lowlife posters.