Member Info for Spikeyj

Hi stej,

“even in your examples the weighted view of the market is higher than the SP…” — you shouldn’t read anything at all into actual values from the numbers i used in those posts, stej, since i could very easily have chosen slightly different numbers in my examples to produce a weighted view lower than the sp! … i was just popping in a few fairly random numbers just to illustrate the discussion.

- - the point is simply that some market participants may well be anticipating an eventual asset sale price *lower* than the current s/p; i.e. not everyone will be assuming that eventual sale would be for more than mcap.

re your second para, i think that is actually why the EUA s/p has been falling for many, many months (and why i think there is still further to fall) — i.e. the market is reflecting gradually changing views amongst potential buyers and sellers.

note that the supply/demand balance, and the relevant set of ‘weighted market expectations’, relates to *market as a whole*, including both holders and non-holders. — obviously one would expect that the collective ‘expectations’ of those still holding will be higher than the collective ‘expectations’ of those who don’t …. It would be very bizarre if it were otherwise, wouldn’t it!!

thanks for the polite and on-topic discussion, stej, appreciated.

(Soz, i realise i switched part-way through from using 50p as very high price to £1, but i hope the overall point is clear enough … off to gym for now, sorry for any other possible typos in there!]

Hi stej, sorry not to reply earlier, i’ve got a batch on quince eline rootstock that i need to deal with before the ground gets too cold, so that’s keeping me a bit busy.

to be clear, the thing i’m debating at the moment is the notion that [per your 13:04] - “Unless the market is 100% certain […] the value element will be higher than the sp at present.”

i took you to mean that you think the eventual asset sale, if it does happen, *will necessarily be higher than the current share price* —> which seems to suggest you’re ignoring possibility that ‘assets’ may eventually be sold, but for **less** than current sp/mcap. (but if that’s not what you meant, pls do say, & my apologies for mis-reading you!).

[let’s assume for the moment, for the sake of simplicity, that we’re discussing sale of “substantially all” of EUA’s assets, whatever those are, setting aside scenarios where only a few assets are sold leaving an EUAv.2 to exploit the remaining assets/grow a new business, & let’s ignore other issues such as non-linear utility value of money].

there will be a range of expectations amongst market participants, such as -

(A) people who think EUA will fail to sell anything and go bust, returning 0p

(B) people who think EUA will sell its assets for a very high price - let’s say 50p

(C) people who think EUA will sell its assets for a high price - let’s say 10p

(D) people who think EUA will sell its assets for around the current mcap, say 2.3p.

(E) people who think EUA will sell its assets for a lower price, let’s say 1.2p

(F) people who think EUA will sell its assets for a small sum, let’s say 0.2p.

… one could say, current share price would reflect that range of expectations, weighted by numbers of people who hold them (or weighted by degrees of probability individuals assign to each of these)…

… so as an illustration, assigning some possible percentages…

[0p x 5%] +

[0.2p x 20%] +

[1.2p x 20%] +

[2.3p x 30%] +

[10p x 20%] +

[£1 x 5%] —-> would give a weighted average around 7.9p.

alternatively,

[0p x 5%] + [0.2p x 20%] + [1.2p x 30%] + [2.3p x 35%] + [10p x 9%] + [£1 x 1%]

—-> would give a weighted average just over 3.1p… where a whole 1p of that comes from the outlier idea that the assets might be sold for £1….

… if instead one plugged 1% change of 20p asset sale, rather than £1, that gives weighted average of current share price, approx 2.3p.

and so on. obviously, one could plug in whole bunch of different guesses, but broader point is simply that current 2.3p share price could v reasonably reflect a range of current expectations **including possibility that EUA’s assets will be sold for *less* than the current mcap**.

… not entirely dissimilar issue from EUA’s ongoing failure to sell the sandpile…

they’ve attributed certain values in their published RNSs. but what’s happened over time is that the sandpit still remains unsold, and that attributed value is falling … one day it might fall to a price that somebody is actually willing to pay for it. ( … in which case, the BoD could truthfully say that they did eventually sell the sand for the book value as promised … unfortunately they had to keep cutting the book value to make that happen, lol.)

Stej, you appear to be ignoring the possibility that a sale price, if achieved, might actually be significantly *lower* than the current share price, not higher.

there is no guarantee at all, imv, that potential buyers see EUA’s assets as worth *more* than the current market cap. me, i think the opposite is more likely.

it may be that EUA has been in limbo for years because potential buyers, if any, have repeatedly been telling the EUA board that this company just ain’t worth anything close to the numbers that zak mir, the telegram group, mac, ACF, etc, etc, preferred to pretend.

it is possible, for instance, that the supposed buyer who reportedly had completed their due diligence long, long ago, did indeed make an offer for ‘substantially all’ of EUA’s assets, but with that offer being for the equivalent of 0.25p per share or less … with the EUA BoD then choosing not to tell shareholders about that particular offer. if the BoD admitted such to the market, the s/p would simply implode, game over.

[? would that buyer still be ‘at the table’? … “OK, if you don’t want to take my offer, fair enough, but if you change your mind, do give me a ring, i’ll probably still be interested for about 0.1p a share.” … NB sample dialogue only, t&c apply, no real bidders were harmed in the making of this post.]

Nope, not backing up mac at all, stej, it’s about [remote] possibilities vs likelihoods imv.

someone could in theory make a bid for BP’s assets tomorrow at 10x the current share price, but it’s remarkably unlikely - analysts and the wider markets have already thought pretty carefully about what those assets might be worth.

Mac4671 21/10, 18:24: “The company holding the assets share price is totally irrelevant to an asset sale.”

EUA’s current share price reflects the wider market’s current view/expectations, based on all the available data released by the company and all other sources, about future developments, weighted by likelihood and financial return (…. including, e.g. how likely is it that this company will simply go bust, be delisted, do a big discounted placing, how likely is it that it will sell assets for $XXX, etc, etc.)

hence, EUA’s share price *does* already reflect just how likely the wider market thinks it is that EUA will manage a sale of assets, and the kind of price that the wider market thinks could be achieved *if* that happened.

… so it would be more useful to say, “the company’s share price *does* very much reflect market expectations of possible future asset sale, as opposed to other possibilities.”

anything that mac4671 wants to claim he knows about EUA and supposed ‘assets’, the wider market already knows too and has done for ages. this company, its location, its declared strategy, etc, have all been in plain sight for a long time. ( — and plenty of people in this s***** & generally lawless, corrupt jurisdiction will have had plenty of time to see that unpublished monte DFS, and adjust positions / leak info to mates, etc etc.)

…if the market thought it was even remotely likely that those ‘assets’ would be sold for very large amounts of money, that would be showing in the share price…

pretty daft to claim that share price is irrelevant, although it is certainly true (and a large part of the fun in watching) that share price and underlying value may be very misaligned at times … as witness that absurd ramped spike up to 40p when the underlying value here has always been very low, war or no war (imho, of course).

Weekend a bit too soggy for my liking …. back in the UK, and have several new pear varieties to plant in my orchard, but it looks like the somme atm.

Meanwhile, only about two months to go before santa empties his sack… currently, this competition is looking good for wolfman and mr b, but there’s still plenty of time for exciting price action, especially as this is meant to be a “critical year”.

happy to add any other guesses to the list, tho’ sadly people generally seem less enthusiastic about ‘guess the EUA share price’ games than they used to be back in Ian_’s day.

KingofClangers 0.5p

Bobrad 0.51p

Sirplacealot 1p

Spikeyj 1.2p

Aubery 1.45p

Treadingcarefully 1.75p

Mr_Wolfe 2.05p

B1ll 2.5p

johnboi1968 4.7p

Sandwell 92p

Hadn’t meant to post for a little while here. ah well.

MrCoffee 22:46: “Someone down the list mentioned the $50 million equates to 4p a share, so looks like that’s a guaranteed return at least, at this stage.”

i don’t think i’ve ever seen a more obvious shill on this chatboard (and boy, there’s been a few around imv).

Stretchxxx 19:09: “We have been advised by the BOD that various parties are involved in extremely expensive and time consuming due diligence…”

that is not true.

Calm down, martin. c u later no doubt.

18:07, i suppose it is conceivable that the man in the white suit is just an unwitting patsy who doesn’t understand the game but is being used as a feed, rather than a shill per se. (hard to tell which, but obnoxious & untrustworthy either way.)

… just a thought, but perhaps the lucky winners of the licensing payout could be offered a chance to reinvest some of their windfall in even more shiny new cloudtag shares, so that they can get an even bigger share of that magical DaaP cake, when it arrives?

… or, more ambitiously, if enough new shares could be sold now in anticipation of that eventual magnificent bulging DaaP payout, perhaps a little bit of that share sale money could be trickled out to a few existing holders in the interim, to help ensure enthusiasm and endorsements from those recipients? — but probably a bit over-complicated to administer, tho’.

(? i dimly recall, some guy in america once experimented with that kind of scheme back in the 1920s? - which seemed to go well for a while before it became evident there wasn’t really much of an underlying profitable business to fund such payouts for all investors, rather than an initial lucky few. … ended in tears, so i heard, but at least it showed that italians & yanks can be every bit as enterprising as nigerians.)

Yup. the proxies come and go, but the m/o seems obvious.

17:19, martin/soyo, i think the key to predicting amit’s updates is to understand that each update will seek to claim ever better news & ever more jam tomorrow — always onwards & upwards! - even tho’ the promises made aren’t kept, the style of the updates is never to express disappointment, apologies, or to backtrack — they always seek to promote even greater enthusiasm, ‘just one push’ towards an every brighter future. … b/c as soon as he starts scaling down the promise or admitting failures, he’ll lose the audience he wants to keep.

17:20, unless of course, pikeyK acts in some sense as an active proxy for amit? - if so that account could be used to drip-feed and soften up the next story line, to keep the mugpunters salivating.

noteworthy when that ID was set up, and how specific the posting history has been to cloudtag and this particular phase of ‘payout is imminent’ because of DaaP & licensing’, which i suspect has coincided with renewed attempts to bring more cash in by flogging shares to pis. jmo.

Spikeyj 31/8/23: “Just for a laugh, he might try the line pikeyK has already trailed on this board a couple of times, something like, ‘good news, we’ve secured additional licensing deals, which mean the sums involved are even greater so there will be a small delay …”

Amit: 20/10/23: “The Daap sale announcement will follow after the next statement has been issued as an enhanced payment is being negotiated”.

… lol.

Havegun, he’d promised that **the buyer** would announce their purchase of the ‘DaaP’ [whatever the heck that really is, lol], by end of this week.

that hasn’t happened, so yet another broken promise.

what you’ve got, yet again, is just another update from amit himself, with no means of independent verification, as per usual with cloudtag.

“… we have moved on …”

well, some have, but some haven’t. plenty still looking here and posting here, including some who seem very convinced there are riches to come imminently, and others who i think are probably shills pretending the same to encourage others (and i think that’s probably because attempted share sales have been ongoing, jmo).

… announcement today meant to come *from the buyer* not from cloudtag … ? nowt yet?