Member Info for Spikeyj

From the perspective of one of who has no position, it’s mainly just a bit of fun, like gogglebox. (i appreciate it probably feels a bit different for folks who have money at stake here.)

LAST CALL! — roll up, roll up.

… one more day for folks to join the ‘guess the EUA share price’ at Xmas 2023. with only 3 weeks to go now, i’ll close the book tomorrow evening.

currently looking pretty close between Treadingcarefully at 1.75p vs Mr_Wolfe at 2.05, but plenty of time still for a sharp s/p move or two, given e.g. WUP & e.g. tax case, and of course this being such “a critical year” for EUA.

“under the new owner”

? what on earth are you on about? - even amit isn’t claiming that he’s sold the company.

You gotta be thick as two short planks if you read this chatboard and don’t know who ‘dim’ is.

Added.

The RNS this morning was bad news, not good news. it was basically admitting that years after buying into aje, with zilch return to shareholders from that purchase, ADME is now giving up on aje because they are unable to fund their share of development costs etc, and they will be attempting to find someone else who is willing to take it off their hands (- notably, the RNS doesn’t give any suggestion of any would-be buyer already lined up, so doesn’t look they already have a bid in their pockets from petronor as a safety net - ).

the mention of auditors in the RNS is a negative too, suggesting that unless they can find someone else to take over aje fairly soon then ADME will be at risk of being unable to meet its liabilities as they fall due, and being designated as no longer a going concern.

worth remembering that buying into aje in the first place was of course a particular ‘achievement’ of stefan olivier as CEO. since adme bought in, there have been no payouts of any kind to shareholders from the limited production that adme managed, and the share price has collapsed, year after year. aje has simply been a catastrophic money-pit and albatross around ADME’s neck —> very poor decision on stefan’s part in terms of returns to ordinary shareholders (although of course stefan and cornhill did very well indeed out of it!).

Well, it’s provided enough liquidity for someone to dump just over 3 million shares today. that was probably a bit of a welcome relief for somebody.

the market share price reaction & total volume rather suggests most people not falling for the latest b***-**** from ADME.

some large BoD buys on open market, *using cash from their own pockets*, might change opinion a little?

Hi dan, sure, petronor might well want to acquire that stake, but no reason petronor would want to pay more for it than they have to. the longer they wait, the more ADME will be a distressed seller, and the cheaper it will be to buy ADME’s stake, or just to pick it up as virtual freebie after ADME defaults on its cost contribution obligations.

in other words, i expect petronor to play hardball rather than act as a charity bailing ADME out.

if ADME goes into administration, the aje stake probably will get sold for something, but of course those proceeds will go to pay off outstanding pay & perks for the BoD, and to pay off the holders of secured loans. (but nowt left over for ordinary shareholders … ? how many shares have stefan and the BoD bought on the market, with cash coming directly from their own pockets?)

(big difference also, seamus, between ‘expecting’ EUA to fail, which i do (eventually), versus ‘hoping’ EUA will fail - i don’t particularly care whether it does or not, no skin off my nose either way.)

Hi seamus.

i am negative / sceptical about EUA and its leadership, and pretty contemptuous of some folks i have may have acted as paid rampy associates / fellow travellers, but i am not negative towards most pis on these chatboards, whether pro or anti EUA.

(unfortunately, many pis confused negativity towards a company they own with negativity towards them personally, when they have become emotionally involved with their investment and especially when they are underwater … not much i can do about that confusion on their part, they’re grownups so can take their own responsibility for such.)

there are unfortunately a small number of IDs who have been persistently rude, offensive, belligerent and deliberately trying to mislead others, so i do feel mildly negative towards them, and frankly would probably laugh if they lost money, and they deserve what they get, but that’s a pretty *tiny minority* on the board — i don’t know anyone here personally / IRL, and have no strong feelings either way about most folks.

far from harming holders, many critical / sceptical posts focused on EUA itself, and its prospects, may already have saved people money, or could have saved holders’ money, & still could, by providing additional valuable food for thought, particularly to balance many times when the social media’s been swamped by unrealistically rampy posts which have probably cost many ordinary pis a lot of money.

Re petronor etc, ADME is a distressed would-be seller of aje — if petronor want ADME’s stake, they just have to wait & acquire it at a pittance or via a default event. petronor is not run as a charity.

Tooldforthat, they claimed they were trying to sell the aje stake several years ago - that announcement worked to pump the share price briefly, but then the supposed buyer evaporated …almost as though they had never really been.

i don’t think today’s RNS means quite what you think. ADME is a very small company, strapped for cash, with no income coming in, and shares trading below par … combination of that plus ADME’s awful reputation & stefan’s long-running proven history of massive value destruction for pis daft enough to back him means it will be pretty tricky to raise more funds via placing.

… BUT, in the meantime, ADME is on the hook for a chunky share of development costs at aje, and it currently has no way to fund those costs. if the bigger players at aje do try to step up the pace re development, then ADME will have to stump up bigger money and sooner, but with aje still being years away from generating any returns. …. ifADME can’t fund its share of those escalating development costs (in an environment of high interest rates and inflationary cost pressures), then it would default on its aje stake and simply lose it. (that’s kinda the story of how ADME(/MXO) got into aje in the first place, as jacka was a distressed seller of its aje stake because it couldn’t pay its cost share.)

so as it currently stands, ADME is in danger of defaulting on its aje stake, and of being unable to meet its liabilities as they fall due (i.e. no longer being a going concern - hence imv the mention of discussions with auditors in the RNS.). — they desperately need someone else to pay their bills for them, or take aje off their hands altogether, but there aren’t that many free lunches / altruistic benefactors out there.

ajimho.

Seamus, re 09:54,

(a) yes i enjoy thinking about investments, shares, fx etc in general, always new things to learn, puzzles to solve, and sometimes additional angles offered on non-investment issues, geo-political stuff, environmental stuff, etc — so for sure it’s an enjoyable pursuit, alongside my other non-financial hobbies, interests & ongoing professional activities.

(b) it’s also lucrative, particularly since watching and understanding shares that are actually not that good can help one understand much better which investments to avoid, and to learn better when to cut losses on investments that might initially have seemed good but actually have a very poor trajectory. it is very sensible and profitable to learn from mistakes, but wherever possible i prefer to learn from other people’s mistakes, as that’s a lot cheaper.

08:52, seamus, for the bears/sceptics amongst us, this has more been about foresight than hindsight.

08:31, yup, a cut & run capitulation but unwilling to admit it. i expect he made plenty out of it anyway, but bit of a shame for the rest who got ramped in.

? perhaps there’s been some kind of minor administrative or legal paperwork problem, after all these things do happen, eh, when large sums of money are involved and an international transfer is required, which could be sorted by a small payment (via wigboy’s magic portal), purely to expedite the necessary forms?

Not so much “years old history”, more ‘year after year after year’ wrt stefan olivier - i.e. not a matter of ancient history, more a matter of repeated failure from him on many occasions (for pis, that is — i think he’s done just fine for his own pocket!). he has *never* delivered for pis at MXO / ADME, over many years of being in charge. (…brief equally disastrous interregnum when osa took over for a while, but no reason to suppose stefan changed his spots during that ‘holiday’ from running ADME...)

MXO / ADME perennially tries to come up with new wheezes to try to excite pis enough for a pump / placing, but never actually delivers on any of those for pis … as one ‘project’ fizzles out without sales or profits, ADME just tries to find another one to spin.

mexican marginal oil fields — no return for pis, abandoned.

johnny hon & the chinese big investors — been & gone, nowt for pis.

aje — £1m ‘first oil’ bonus for cornhill, but no return for pis.

aje - touted sale to GPDC pumped the s/p, but then evaporated.

aje now, no production, no FSPO, no funding to develop, a bust.

dodgy ‘sheikh’ - s/p pumped & dumped, but nothing for pis.

superdialectics — someone made money out of that, but it wasn’t pis!!

american work-overs — deal abandoned, nothing from it for pis.

& now, ADME splashes out shareholder funds on an app - bought from? ; )

barracuda (OK, this one seemingly more osa!) - no return for pis, abandoned.

(the other *big* issue being, of course, what the economics are of trying to extract any actual reserves … hence, for example, their failure to publish the monte DFS … not much good having minerals / metals underground if it ends up costing them more to extract / process /ship than they get from selling the stuff … EUA have stopped mining because they lose money mining, imv, and the sanctions situation prevents them from funnelling more cash into the ruskie ops to maintain the appearance of running a productive mine which has previously been helpful to them for marketing / ‘promotional’ purposes.)

“… the upside is still there in proven reserves…”

hardly. from the available public data, EUA doesn’t actually have much by way of proven reserves.

there are big differences between e.g. resources vs reserves, and e.g. inferred vs “proven’, etc etc. bizarre imv that some folks invest in ruskie mining shares when they don’t understand this stuff.

Helx2, very little that amit has ever said about cloudtag has turned out to be true. i see no good reason to believe that there’s anything different about this current phase of the game.

(NB to be fair to amit, one couldn’t say that literally nothing he has ever said about cloudtag has turned out to be true — as he did, for example, say that it was going to delist from AIM, and sure enough it did delist from AIM.)