Why shorting this will be VERY profitable18 Mar 2020 12:55
Dear all,
Can I draw your attention to two things:
1. A podcast released featuring Michael Osterholm, an internationally acclaimed infectious diseases epidemiologist, previous advisor to many western governments, and a person who has accurately predicted (ie modelled) the coronavirus outbreak to this point. Only the first 15 or so minutes are relevant to my point.
https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw
2. And secondly, I share with you all the paper upon which both the UK and US governments are basing their entire coronavirus response strategies, as released by Imperial College London several days ago.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj0yYrch6ToAhVZh1wKHYFuAHoQFjAAegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd
Once you have read both of these it will be abundantly clear to you all that this virus is not going away in three, six or nine months. We will be dealing with this for 12-18 months MINIMUM until a vaccine has been rolled out for mass consumption.
This is going to be survival of the fittest in the business world, and we will see many, many companies across multiple sectors go bust. Cineworld simply cannot and will not survive even despite the business rate changes.
To those who have shorted this, well done. As you may be aware, if you are shorting a company which goes into administration, you get to keep 100% of your profit.
But that's not all- since shorting is typically performed with leverage, you get to keep 100% if the profit × whatever ratio leverage you are utilising. So for example, on a retail trading account through IG, you keep 500% of your margin amount.
Good luck all and make sensible decisions here.
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