Member Info for sparky333

Gulf Keystone now has a higher market cap than Genel.

Never thought I would see the day.

I am sure it will all sort itself out eventually as the disconnect between GKP and Genel is growing by the day.

Interesting that we have a trading update on the 10th Oct and the numbers will be good and would not be surprised to see a revised fully year output guidance figure moving towards 35-38K per day for the rest of the year.

also we should be pulling in way over $30 every month with FCF also way over $15m

so with a MC of 600M and a net cash position by year end with a growing numbers across the board a major rerate will come at some point.

Patience as always with Genel is required but at this level Genel is ever so vulnerable to a hostile bid, GKP could effectively take a 29% stake in the company from existing cash.

they do not need to spend 200M increasing output at Shaiken they could reach that figure by buying a stake in Genel and reap the rewards of access on the books to Genels vast portfolio and vastly improving output.

Why are the BOD of Genel allowing such weakness in the SP ? especially as they could mount a defence in the SP and take 10% of the shares off the market for 60M

all food for thought.

we produce more oil per month have 3M more FCF every month which is about to increase and by year end could be 45K a month BOP compared to GKP 32K never mind further increases from Pes and Bina in 2019

yet we are the same market cap

oh did I forget the huge gas we have

the mind boggles

difference in Market cap between Genel and Gulf.

incredible !!!

I have to admit I am just stunned at the lack of interest in Genel since the Half year figures.

Polar opposites of what I would have expected.

Did I miss a profits warning, OIL at historic lows, world economies about to crash, Genel struggling under a mountain of debt ?

I actually thought none of the above and the polar opposite.
1. Profit growing very fast thanks to Pesh and even more when Bina approved.
2. we are paid in Dollars and the dollar is extremely strong
3. Pesh 50K this year next year who knows 75-100K ?
4. Bina first oil Q1 next year
5. Twake and Taq Taq stable
6. No debt by year end

FCF $15M a month and growing very fast each 10K at Pesh adds $2M, could be $20M FCF by year end.

that is $240M a year FCF and growing

Is the lack of progress on Gas the problem, maybe but that still does not support a market cap on the current numbers of only 600M

The world has gone totally mad and if I was genel I would either pay a dividend or aggressively buy back stock at this level

thoughts ?

Low volume and down we go.

SP irrelevant at the moment the company is pulling in $30m a month and growing with $15m FCF. Full year will be special to say the least.

And if still at this SP make it the cheapest debt free oiler in the UK if not a lot wider afield.

also new presentation on the genel site

https://twitter.com/GenelEnergyplc/status/1039759539468427264<br /><br />Read

record payment in Aug, Bina FDP submitted all good stuff

all I know is fundamentally Genel is a steal at this price.

Do not be surprised to wake up and Boom the Takeover approach RNS is there.

IO see sentiment has been massively beaten down on Genel, as we have fallen 80p in a little over 20 days which is pretty dramatic and now we have to rise nearly 40% to get back to the year high

Am I worried ? Hell no !!!!

Genel is now at a Market Cap of 620M which actually is ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination.

What is 620M getting you ? errm just look at Hawkey's reasons to be cheerful.

So what has caused this dramatic fall ?

1. Just look at the volume, truly awful and Genel never seems to go up on low volume.
2. Half year results, I really think a lot of people expected more with regards to Gas.
3. Belgin selling 300K has spooked investors, well they haven't gone below 10% yet.

POO is actually doing really well and bouncing between 73-80 most of the year, all more pennies each month along with Pesh which I personally think will be 50-75k by year end.

BUT what about the gas ? now this is an enigma, if it is being paused while we push on with Pesh and light oil at Bina , just bloody come out and say it and let investors invest on facts now speculation.

Not good to be a Genel holder at present but what makes me even more nervous is now a predator could pick up genel with an opportunistic bid at say 300+ and grad all the Reasons to be cheerful and a practically debt free oil producer growing its monthly output for 800-1000M.

please Mr Genel Board get your heads out of your assess and protect the SP, use some the free cash flow to purchase stock at this level as agreed at the last AGM but 223p for this company is a steal.

It will all even out in the end. Shitty few weeks but the worm will turn and when she does 300p will be history and when Genel moves by god she moves !!! The money Genel is pulling in is incredible. I personally think the half year needs to firm up the Light oil plan and also an better estimate of where Pesh output is heading If the market keeps us around this level the FY figures could be huge and a real shocker the to market especially on at this market cap. Patience wins out eventually.

All good stuff and the money is rolling in no don’t about that. The market is just nervous over the Belgin sale and the what if they are selling down the 15% holding. If they hadn’t sold the 300k we would be smashing through 300p. Volume also isn’t helping just bloody terrible but I am hoping this turns around next week. Sentiment needs a kick up the arse here at the moment.

That article was written in 2014.

With oil companies you currently have 2 types.

1. Cash rich and no debt
2. Swamped in Debt

takeovers and mergers in the oil industry has been dead for several years, I fully expect this radically change in the next 12 months, the warning signs are there and it will come out of the blue, companies like Genel and GKP are funny ones as both predators and prey.

I would not be shocked to see an RNS from no where at some odd time and then the bidding war begins.

GKP have a 100m bond so not a net position of 150m Also been talking for 3 years of 55k yet still in the 30k or so. So get your facts right Nickel. I will have to see it to believe it. I was in GKP and rode it from 60p to 465p and bailed after Golkana told the market 3 months after they sold Todd’s shares Wtf !!!! I will never invest in that shambles again. One trick pony which they have spent 6 years talking 55k and still nothing but talk.

Yes I think it will it has momentum. But GKP will switch shortly to Genel as soon going to be 100p less than GKP. Genel is in the doldrums on mega low volume and people thinking bilgin are selling 15% holding. Genel is the longer term play and making more money and producing more oil than GKP as well as Pesh, miran Bina, Gas, somaliland and Morocco.

Now between GKP and Genel. 40p a share

I am sorry but you cannot say GKP is better value than Genel GKP has Shakain true a monster field and they are heading to 55k in 2019. Note this is heavy oil and at a significant discount to Brent. Genel has Twake, Taq Taq and now Pesh with Bina and Miran oil as well. I also expect Genel will be 50k+ in 2019 Debt free 2019 we also have Morocco, Somaliland and Gas. So with only £60m difference in Market Cap which offers better value ? No brainer Genel is far better value spending more cash each month developing current fields and still pulling in £10m a month to the bank balance. I have said it before and will say it again Genel and GKP merger would create an absolute monster pumping over 100k a day with a lot of cash on the books to develop shaiken, Pesh, bina and miran. Amazed it’s hasnt yet happened. Also surprised DNO hasn’t snapped up Genel or GKP.

I expect that is very conservative - place your bets

I will go for 75K

Well in 6 trading days Genel has lost over 100M MC when things have never looked so good. GKP has suffered but is now only 80m MC less than Genel.

Why ?

an a large holder has sold a couple of hundred thousand share - big deal !! or is it the possibility of then sell out entirely ? which is 15%. Maybe but that didn't do GKP any harm.

I actually suspect it is a perfect storm that has hit Genel, Turkey, POO, Bilgin and PI's panicking and baking profits.

I see today a pivotal day with DNO announcing results and hopefully some Pesh news.

In 6 days we have lost 60p per share which is bloody large and if we bounce back this could be the perfect V shaped reversal.

This depends on Bilgin who I hope are not selling down which would temper this V shaped reversal

Today is a very interesting day !!!! 240p could be a seems an absolute steal in a few days time.