RE: The Wealth Holders Podcast26 Dec 2021 13:16
continued part 2
Mines face different sorts of risks; jurisdictional, geological, operational, capital, and construction related. Fortuna Silver Mines lost 30% in a day due to jurisdictional risks. Argonaut similarly dropped due to construction risks. Rubicon fell victim to geology. In lieu of the above updates, I believe the operations are headed in the right direction now. The big risk remaining is capital; will the company run out of money and dilute us again? Based on the math I posted a few weeks ago, it doesn’t seem like it. Sources on the ground say bills are being paid on time. Plus, they have reduced several costs associated with operations. The company expects to be cash flow neutral in February, and then positive from there on. My math had pitted them at slightly negative in December, but as I have not crunched the numbers for the next two months, I can only parrot what the company has said. If we had seen significant insider buying at these levels, I would have assumed capital risk is no longer a major issue. So there is risk, but it is low.
The 12 year mine life will definitely increase as the drills are showing additional gold around the ore body. This will become even more significant as they go deeper. Plus, there is 50,000 meters of drill data that will become part of the mine plan in the second half. The drilling to 8 Zone will begin in the second half of the year funded with positive cash flows. Which, as I have said in the past, is a relief since capital is the key risk at the moment. So what do I think of the picture painted above? I am far more optimistic now than I was two months ago. If in two more months the company can indeed stop bleeding cash, there is a good chance the company could 3X through to the end of 2022 (mine performance + mineral resource update + continuous assay results from 8 Zone).