Member Info for SpaceHoppa

See the writing on the wall that Navitas JV will make his position irrelevant.

''Navitas brings significant, proven capital raising expertise and, through the proposed farm-in, they will take primary responsibility for financing the Sea Lion project going forward."

Rock - Turnaround play of 2022 !!

'It will be £250m minimum.'

Muchabout, as much as I would like that to be true, there is no ''will be'' at all at the moment as we have not had the judgement!

Also I said if Rock win, £15m 'at the minimum' as this could be approximately Rocks sunk costs minus lawyers take.

Sea Lion Development – Chance of Success 85%

Navitas’s detailed heads of terms agreement will if concluded, change Rocks fortunes in a very big way!!

Previously OM was the expected news that would keep the dream alive, however OM is now a very useful extra bonus if it goes in Rocks favour.

I feel the chance of Navitas signing a JV farm in deal are very high, I put it at 90%. The reasoning for this is they were keen to JV with PMO/HBR and RKH previously for just 30%, and have shown interest all the way through. An email reply from Moody earlier in the year hinted of Navitas’s continued interest, and HBR’s lack of interest, when he wrote Paraphrasing - ‘we continue to plan and talk with Navitas in the event HBR do not see SL as part of their plans’. Navitas were/are the partner Rock wished they had rather than PMO.

Next assuming Navitas JV in, then what are the chances of a positive FID? Again I put this very high at 95%. The reasoning is they know the score with Sea Lion and the Falklands and they aren’t concerned about Argentina. They have looked at the data and obviously like what they see. I feel it is almost a given that if they JV in, Sea Lion will get developed either as a 65/35% split, or possibly an extra partner taking 25% from Navitas and 5% from Rock, even though Rock say they want 35%, leaving a 40/30/30% split. Rock giving up an extra 5% should mean Rock get to production with minimal dilution.

If Navitas sign in I can see the share price back into the low teens.
If OM pays out, which at the very minimum I see £15m for Rock, there are no immediate dilution worries.
If OM does not pay out, or pay out in time, then a 25% dilution of shareholders selling 114m shares at 10pence gives Rock £14m. Enough to keep the lights on for a while.
I do not see a dilution event happening before the JV decision or before the OM case. If both of those are negative for Rock we are bugg3r3ed anyway!

So to conclude, my fag packet thoughts are Sea Lion development now has an 85% chance of success either with Rock holding 30% or 35% of the acreage, dilution is not as big an issue as we think assuming Navitas sign in, and not an issue at all if OM/ Italy get told to pay the significant sums they should pay for shafting a private company.

As I said previously, Rock (85% likely) have been saved by Navitas and have a very bright future, but we and the market just haven’t cottoned on yet, or can quite believe it.

It may take a few weeks or months, but Rockhopper could be the turnaround story of 2021 !!

''Except the development odds are very low as things stand.''

Care to share your logic for that conclusion ???

''How does lower cost work?''

One for the oil experts on here, however to use an analogy, when replacing your inefficient old domestic gas boiler,
one could go for a top of the range condensing boiler with a high output rating, plus replace the controls and have new radiators and a magnetic filter.

Or you could go for a midrange boiler than will do the job and keep existing controls and rads.
Rock/Navitas may look at a smaller quicker but flexible and expandable development to get the project going.

Definition - make (an action or process) happen SOONER or be accomplished more QUICKLY

''Rockhopper and Navitas to jointly develop and agree a technical and financing plan to enable the development of the project to achieve first oil on a lower cost and expedited basis''.

I like the two words - ''lower cost'' as well :-)

''The Navitas PDF states January 2022''

Thanks Mogger, always appreciate your research.

What I like about Navitas is they do not fack about. They were clean to partner with Harbour,
and with them out of the way they could quite easily I feel, have mugged the barely breathing Rockhopper for a lot more than 65%.

Whilst I dislike our greedy little piglet directors, they do have an unrivalled deep knowledge of the Falklands, and Rock were essentially the owners of all the data and licences, which always had significant value for any new comer.

I can see a decent increase in the share price as soon as Navitas legally commit,
and I can see NO reason once that happens, that Navitas will not see Sea Lion through to FID and production.

Rockhopper and it's shareholder have been saved today, we just don't know or believe it yet.

The big takes from this are

Rock are still very much in the game and still hold a significant 35%.
Debt ridden PMO and Harbour timewasters are finally OUT.
Navitas wont care the tiniest jot about Argie threats.
Navitas are keen, very capable and wont hang around to get SL developed.
Chances for development of SL with Rockhoppers shareholders intact have gone from unlikely, to much greater than 50%

This is excellent news, breath a deep sigh of relief. We just need OM to award us $50m and we can have a No. 10 style Christmas PARTY!!!

Happyhaddock, first thing to do is utterly ignore the troll cheated, who has no shares now as lost his shirt here.
A bitter type, every post will be negative and worthless.

PURE on paper are worthy of investment, asset looks great, as does exploration upside.
However, management have over ramped guidance and under delivered on production and AISC !
Hence the fall from ramped 150p, to 41pence. Looks to me rather over-sold, but, management need to deliver.
The question is can and will they deliver?? Market is not yet convinced they can or will.

Mirasol. If Italy lose and are told to pay by ICSID Courts, I doubt it will be up to Italy to decide the timing of when they fancy paying.

IF Italy are told to pay up say $150million,
and IF Italy refuse to pay,
then it is quite possible this debt can be sold to a specialist debt litigation collector for say $100million,
who would have the time and expertise to make a handsome $50million for themselves relatively easily.

That is the problem Spindok, Pure management having substantially failed to deliver guidance,
or perhaps substantially over ramped realistic guidance,
means many are not trusting on their ability, or trustworthiness, so why risk it??
Management need to give investors a good convincing reason to invest, and so far, they aren't.

Pure's management did a brilliant job at ramping this company to £1.50,
however a third rate job of delivering on guidance!

Regrettably I bought in thinking this was a safe pedigree Cruff winning Newfoundland dog,
but at slightly under a £1 average it turned out it was a scabby mongrel.

HOWEVER, at £0.42, this could be, perhaps should be, now looked upon as a ugly duckling wannabe swan.
There is much to like about Pure's assets, providing they can extract it at guidance.

I think many of us would now be happy to see 15p again!

harrym194,
yes, that was the email I was referring to,
regarding the wait for ICSID dead snail movers to make a decision.

A poster, I can not remember who, said they had heard from Sam Moody,
& that the NWNF lawyers would not chase useless ICSID again this year.
I think that was a hint to expect no news before January - at the earliest!

Picked up from the other place dated 15th of Nov.

Of interest was this ''targeting a sustained 1000tpd by mid 2022 with permits in place now the mill is operating at this level for some days. ''

Speculation, IF the permits are in place, and IF Pure are now managing closer to 900+t/d,
then my Q4 estimates of around 10,500 oz may be on the low side,
and around 14,000+ oz might be possible??

https://www. sprott.com/media/4547/211115-scp-pgm-3q.pdf

Thanks for the article, which seems a fair assessment of where Pure are at.
I do not have a concern about the up coming 2 million warrants as that is a minor amount.
Management should be focused on very tight cash control until making a decent profit though,
as well as delivering on increasing extraction and production.

2021's performance has been pretty awful compared to guidance, and directors will be similarly miffed their many cheap shares have tanked as well which is a comfort.
However I think Q4 will show a reasonable improvement and am more hopeful for 2022.

Pure management 'anticipated' producing a lot more gold per quarter and
Pure management 'anticipated' producing at a lower AISC.
Pure management need to anticipate their mining issues before they happen, rather than spending too much time ramping up the company.

At the moment by looking at the share price, nobody seems to believe the ramping CEO anymore, so the senior directors need to give investors a tangible reason to buy, by actually delivering on expectations!

TD2, I am no fan of Pure directors and they certainly appeared to use insider knowledge to flog off shares knowing grades and volume of gold produced were not as predicted, whilst still ramping the company as if all was just fantastic.

The jury is out for me as to when this will turn around, however the asset is impressive so with the increase in tpd capacity, increase in g/t and a year of experience under their belts, we are hopefully already at the turning point where our SP steadily rises.

TD2,
I think it is reasonable to say all loss making companies would be ''more or less insolvent'' if it weren't for fund raising.
Pure are not yet capable of standing on their own two financial feet, but are getting closer to breakeven.
The 8 zone is a very large future jam pot ,but Pure need to improve the bread and butter day job of getting towards 900+ tpd and average grade of 6g/t AU first.
Once that is fixed, we and the SP will be a lot happier, but management's mining performance so far has been patchy and need to improve!