Member Info for SpaceHoppa

The ‘award’ is just another word for the result - Rhys91

True, however I was more focusing on the difference between words 'render', and 'issue',
and as mswartz points out, legal wording is by necessity, is very precise.

"The Tribunal anticipates that it should be in a position to render its award* in the course of July
and yesterday
''the Tribunal has 120 days after closing to issue its Award''

It is probably over analysing but
Render - verb, provide or give (a service, help, etc.).
Issue - verb, supply or distribute (something)

I like the implication of supply (as in something like $$$'s) a lot better than provide (as in service).
Either way all logic indicates Rock will win the case and K&S are top draw lawyers.

Also as P777 kindly researched yesterday, the award could come at any time now and it would not be unprecedented for it to come in days rather than months. Given all the stalling by Italy I think they have had plenty of time to do the maths on any $ award, so hopefully sooner.

Regarding the issue of equity, should OM not come in on time, it is all good speculating but facts remain Rock have enough cash to last until 2023 at the current cash burn, and at that rate only need about £3.5m year, or 44m shares, about 10% dilution to have enough to last until 2024.

Finally, could people consider filtering or just ignoring the trolls, it's bad enough seeing all the green
''This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view''
''This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view''
''This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view''
but I then have to see people trying to have a rational conversation with the village idiots.

A while back I tried to 'logically', assess what will happen in 2022.

Like others, I assessed that Navitas would sign a legally binding agreement to farm in, >90% I think I said.
They have done exactly that, and that was odds on as they have shown so much interest previously.

I think I assessed a positive OM award as >85%, again this is based on
1. Italy factually, actually did unilaterally change the terms of the deal they had with MOG/Rock.
2. The time taken on the case.
3. That Italy have tried everything to scupper the ICSID judgement.

The chances of a 'significant' award, is much harder to judge, and I have only gut feeling to go on.
If an award for Rock, then I would think £30m is a minimum, minus lawyers cut.
However I guess there is a 50% chance of an award IRO $65m
and possibly a 20/25% chance of an award above $100m.

Some unknowns remain,
assuming Rock win, do Rock need to issue equity, and how much?
will Italy pay or will there be an OOC?

I think there is a 95%+ chance that SL will get developed now. If Rock can avoid significant dilution, which I think they can, then hanging on to your shares, or taking a new/increased position, is logically a good risk/reward idea, depending on your timeframes.

Good luck with your other investments.

Me, I feel Rock are on the cusp of a decent re-rate north, so will keep my 500k and see what ICSID declare and just how fast Navitas can move.

'Are you totally sure a billion loan would only be 35%???' - Sam_Moody

The fact you have to ask that shows you really are a clueless de-ramper.
The original 3 partner plan was
Up to 29 wells (20 oil producers)
250 million barrels recoverable resource
$1.8bn capex to first oi

Navitas are looking '' to achieve first oil on a LOWER cost and EXPEDIATED basis''.
Speculation is for possibly $1Billion.
If you think Rock are paying for all $1B capex to first oil, but only getting 35% of the revenue, then you are as above,
clueless de-ramper.

Shoddy De-Ramping
1. A $Billion loan would only be 35% to Rock, not 100% as you imply
2. Even on your worst case $70brent ($35 costs?) SL throws off $638m Gross a year.
Back to ADVFN with ya, fool.

I read this again
1. The majority of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one related costs from Transaction completion up to FID will be funded through a loan from Navitas
2. Post FID, Navitas will provide an ‘Interest free loan’’ to Rock to fund two-thirds of Rocks share of SL phase 1 development costs (for any costs NOT MET by third party debt financing).
3. Rock/ Navitas to jointly develop a technical and financing plan to enable the development of the Sea Lion project to achieve first oil on a LOWER cost and EXPEDIATED basis post sanction.
4. Rock 35% / Navitas 65%
Speculate an example of $1billion slim down project for 40,000 b/day, at $85/b and costs of $40/b that’s 40,000 x 45
= $657 Million Gross profit a YEAR. $230m gross to Rock !

The figures are very favourable for a quick return on investment so it is financially very low risk for any lenders.
I believe with those returns Navitas can secure the majority of funding with debt finance.
Could they secure ALL of it through debt finance ??

He could have put RKH into hibernation in 2012 and gone on a decade long world (tour)

Well he could have done that, but then all the work in the back ground to keep Navitas on board, and the FIG happy wouldn't have happened. Credit where it is due, he did email several posters, including me, before HBR made their official decision, that he was working on Plan B - Navitas as operator......and that has happened !

Oh nearly forgot, got a new one for the list of timewasting posters
ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7
+ today
hydraides

The filter facility is free to use, why waste precious personal time reading dross !!
Rock, turnaround play 2022

As P77 said earlier, $3.9m will last 11months until March 2023 at the current cash burn.
Rock are not yet desperate for cash!

OM case should close ''soon'', and an award expected by end of August.
Again well within Rocks cash available positive period.

Rock have 460m share in issue, just a 10% dilution would bring in $4.7m
Enough to fund Rock until late 2024 at current cash burn !!
I would welcome a 10% dilution to bolster Rocks finances.

Todays SP performance does not reflect the massive positive milestone of having Navitas as operator.
It's now I feel it's a matter of when, not if, we get a rerate. The SP is down, the prospects are up.
Tempted to add once the dust has settled.

We may not believe it, however today is probably the first day that the new Sea Lion and Falkland oil province,
actually started to become a reality :-)

Massive hurdle was just cleared today, with a committed and nimble partner !

Corporate Updates

Rockhopper Exploration plc (AIM: RKH), the oil and gas exploration and production company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin, is pleased to announce that, further to the heads of terms notified on 8 December 2021, Rockhopper, Harbour Energy plc ("Harbour") and Navitas Petroleum LP ("Navitas") have signed legally binding definitive documentation in relation to Harbour exiting and Navitas entering the North Falkland Basin (the "Transaction").

The Transaction remains subject to completion pending, inter alia, regulatory approvals.

Highlights

-- Navitas will acquire Premier Oil Exploration and Production Limited ("POEPL"), the Company in which Harbour holds all of its Falkland Islands licences

-- Rockhopper and Navitas will seek to align working interests across all their North Falkland Basin petroleum licences - Rockhopper 35% / Navitas 65% - subject to all necessary consents

-- Rockhopper and Navitas to jointly develop and agree a technical and financing plan to enable the development of the Sea Lion project to achieve first oil on a lower cost and expedited basis post sanction

-- Navitas to provide loan funding to Rockhopper:
o The majority of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one related costs from Transaction completion up to Final Investment Decision ("FID") will be funded through a loan from Navitas with interest charged at 8% per annum (the "Pre-FID Loan"). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded

o Subject to a positive FID, Navitas will provide an interest free loan to Rockhopper to fund two-thirds of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one development costs (for any costs not met by third party debt financing). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded

o Funds drawn under the loans will be repaid from 85% of Rockhopper's working interest share of free cash flow

The SP may not go ballistic tomorrow, although it does depend on the tone, as well as the content of what Rock say tomorrow.

It should probably go a lot higher than it will, however a massive hurdle will have been leaped, which just leaves the OM award to be decided, and depending on that result, funding to see Rock to first oil.

Rock, the turnaround play of 2022

Looks legit and excellent news if confirmed on Tuesday.
It would be wonderful if the sloth lawyers at ICSID confirmed a substantial award to Rock Tuesday as well,
or an OOC deal with Italy.

Yes, only looked at dealing prices once in the afternoon,
and could neither buy or sell much of Pure, as in <1000 shares.

Silence from management is indeed killing the price,
shame they didn't do that wrt equity raise in the last RNS !

I sold 20,000 a week or so ago, and will happily buy them back,
but only once I know Pure have secured their near/medium term future.
I do expect others are thinking exactly the same.

Until they sort out the finance there is no bull case. Once that is done, and the new management team show progress at running the mine at anything like the last management team suggested, then it will recover.

I feel the previous directors, and some of those still in place, need prosecuting for gross mismanagement and probably deceiving the market with demonstrably bullcarp projections and forecasts.

This time next week we could be 10 or 20pence, or still at 15.
It really depends on our absent management and whatever deal they strike with Sprott and Ashati.

I doubt they have secured in writing an equity raise at 20pence let alone 40pence, but who knows.
It is possible that Pure secure some, or a significant portion of the cash call by debt, meaning dilution is less.

The Company expects that, in total, over the next six months, it will require approximately $50 million of external financing to bring the Company to a state of

''sustainable positive free cash flow'' at the corporate level.

They may not need any more cash IF plans go to plan.

It wont go to zero.
The downward pressure is a result of moronic management giving little reasons to buy,
but $50m darn good reasons to sell. It's the unknown placing price which is causing investors to sell.
Once that is announced, the SP will stabilise and could well rise in the hope it is the final equity raise,
and that management have the money to fix the problems left by previous incompetent directors.