Member Info for SpaceHoppa

SL and Isobel
Best Estimate (2C) 712.3mbbls Navitas 463.0mbbls meaning Rock has 2C of 249mbbls
Hypothetically say extraction costs of $45/bbl, POO of $45 x 249m = $11.2Billion gross profit to Rock.
Rock market cap is $49m !
The potential for a monumental re-rate over the next few years is there to see in the numbers.

A summary of the highlights for the three months ended March 31, 2022, and subsequent to date for the Company and its 100% owned PureGold Mine Project (“PureGold Mine”) or the “Project”) are as follows:
Gold Production
• Gold production for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 was 6,653 ounces
• Gold sold for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 was 7,876 ounces
Processing
• For the first quarter ended March 31, 2022, the PureGold Mine processed a total of 50,892 tonnes of ore, or an average of 570 tpd, at an average head grade of 4.27 grams of gold per tonne of ore (“g/t Au”) and achieved an average recovery of 95.2%.
• The main operating units in the mill and process facility are performing as expected. During the quarter, the Company completed upgrades for the gravity circuit which is expected to increase gravity recovery by 10-15% and overall gold recoveries by 1-2% to 96-97% from 95%. The upgrades are also expected to reduce operating costs by reducing cyanide dosages (consumption) in leaching, carbon in carbon-in-pulp (“CIP”), and metabisulfite/copper sulfate in the detox circuit.
• The regulatory process to increase the permitted mill capacity to 1,000 tpd is well advanced, and expected to be completed in Q4 2022.

Looking at the case logically, having King and Spalding on the case, unilateral regulation change of the Italians etc, we all know Rock should win a decent pay-out, however it is not a given that that award will take all of the 120 days allocated.

Could happen anytime between tomorrow, or October.

Potentially with a 60 day extension to late Oct.

Glad you now understand rhys. Took long enough.

Everything pretty much has been discussed 'over and over and over again'.
Fact is an OOC, however likely or unlikely, IS allowable under ICSID rules,
and as Cubane has said, proceedings would only stop once funds have been received.

I think there is perhaps a 10% chance of Italy not wanting a case prescience being set.
Others feel it's 0%.
Now, what else is there to discuss??

Rhys91, I have never implied an OOC is likely, or will ever happen, I speculated an outcome saying ''hypothetically'' however it IS a possibility as the below link demonstrates.
Now, what were you saying??

https://icsid.worldbank.org/services/arbitration/convention/process/discontinuance

Settlement and Discontinuance

At ANY TIME before the award is rendered, parties may jointly request that the Tribunal discontinue the proceeding if they settle the dispute or for any other reason......

''Just like baseless speculation with you and an out of court settlement''

Rhys91, out of court settlements are NOT 'baseless speculation'. They are a very common well understood, and often mutually beneficial practice.

Italy reneging on it ECT agreement is, so far as I know, totally baseless.
However perhaps you would enlighten the forum with some evidence to the contrary ??

LaticsRule, I feel the chances of an equity placing before the OM decision, are low.
The reason is based on cash available to Rock, and estimated monthly cash burn.
We can calculate cash is sufficient to last until at least Q1/2 next year,
and we know the OM decision at the very latest is due in Oct this year.

So whilst a placing can never be ruled out, Rock have no need to pull that particular trigger before the OM situation is concluded.

People seem very keen to suggest Italy will almost certainly
1. Appeal the award in some way suggesting a mistrial, corruption etc
2. That they will ignore the award
3. That they will delay paying forever

I would be a lot more concerned if people would give some examples of whenever any of the above has actually happen with an ICSID award against Italy. If there are some then lets examine the cases, however if there aren't any, then the above is just baseless speculation.

Tosimon, have you any evidence of Italy ever doing what you have just suggested on any ICSID judgement?

Daikihaku1, I agree, Italy have been able to settle an OOC at any point, and still do, however they may well wait until the very last moment to actually agree to it. An OOC may not happen, but it can't be discounted.
I was speculating what an OOC might look like, should one happen.

Just whilst we wait for the result to drop, it crossed my mind again that an out of court agreement could also drop any day. It got me thinking hypothetically what would it be?

Italy want to avoid setting an ICSID case precedence so I think they would happily start with returning all Rocks capex spend, from memory $39m plus interest ($50m), and they agree to pay all case costs. Rock would end up with $25m? King and Spalding similar.

However I think King and Spalding will fancy Rocks chances and ask for much more, perhaps $150m,
meaning Rock $100m, K&S $50m.

Meeting in the middle, $100m OOC would mean around $65m $35m split.
I would be very happy with an OOC at the compromise figurers.

The SP, floor or otherwise depends entirely on what Pure's so far useless ramping management,
can do wrt getting enough finance to see the mine working profitably.
I'm far from convinced they will produce the goods, however that's why we are down at 11pence !

A settlement agreement suggest UK or FI "owe" something to Argentina. Most in UK, FIG and also Rock shareholders don't feel there is anything owed. Also your suggestion might be used as, and seen as if Argies had some rightful claim, which they don't.
So it's a non starter on many fronts I feel.

Looks like EU weening itself off Puter oil this year, meaning demand for existing alternative supplies is going to increase, meaning PoG is staying high long term as Putler can not easily sell his oil elsewhere owing to oil and tanker restraints.
V.positive for Rock, Navitas, FI and SL sanction !
BUYing at this price seems to offer a great risk reward play.

They don't intend, however that is not the same as "will not". Everything is negotiable, if the price is right or if the need significant.

RKH .................... £ 38, 160,000

or 8.5p/share, and therein lies the potential reward. Rock post Navitas farm in have 35% of Seal Lions 500mmbbl resource, 175mmbbls to Rock. Navitas seem very committed to Sea Lions development and I think FID is now highly likely indeed.

So Rocks problems are probably just finance related, and that could be solved shortly with a decent OM award. Failing an OM win, although I think a win is very odds on, Rock need to either issue equity, sell another SL % or get a loan. I hard part I feel has already been over come, a committed partner, the rest should just follow in time, and the SP should rise significantly as things progress.

Rock - Turnaround play 2022

Posters can come up with all sorts or scenarios that imply Rocks SP will reach £'s, or reach 0pence.
Nobody on the planet really knows where $ oil is going. Fact !!!

We need to look at the facts of what is happening, and that is a partner, Navitas, seemingly 100% very enthusiastic about farming into and developing SL. Their history with the SL field is nothing short of 100% commitment, I can't fault them.

There are some hurdles between Rock £40m and Rock a £1billion company, but the latter is I feel is more likely now with Navitas on board and the world of today, than Rock at 0Pence.

Nice Post JEBR, it's good to show best and worst, and it can only be based on what little we do know, plus what we can reasonably speculate. Basically if all goes well we are massively underrated, but the market isn't yet confident how it will play out.

I believe the risk to reward is heavily in favour of having a decent wedge in Rock, which I have.

A win at ICSID will have a positive effect on the SP, however it will be very dependant on the size, and of the perception of when the money can be accessed.

Getting Navitas as JV is huge, but the SP has dropped slightly, probably because their is still some doubt above approval, and of when, how, and even if Rock need to raise more funds.

Navitas approval is really a given, and an OM win is almost a given. But we need the doubt about funding and FID before we are truly of to the races. This time though I believe we are at last finally getting to the end game.